Member Info for Penguins

Ibug,

It has happened before and then been accessible, most days I try the link but may be this time it's permanent.

Soon it won't matter because UKOG won't have the cash to proceed with Turkey if all funds are diverted to Portland Port consultants.

Ocelot,

'Personally, think it is best to wait for clarification concerning the adjourned GM.'

Of course you do. After all it has always been better to wait for a UKOG RNS rather than believe those awful trolls that explain why the outcome won't be the promised land that UKOG has claimed - the SP is only down about 25% since last Friday.

The stupidest thing is how ocelot has filtered any poster that disagrees with the unicorns and puppy narrative that UKOG propound, yet happily endorses posters that are only posting for the pump and dump when they'll sell (if it happens) and not hang around for the results. It must be such a disappointment when all those new friends disappear on the 'pump'.

But the question is why are UKOG allowing the SP to drift by not issuing an RNS - at the current rate of decline it won't be long before the mcap will be less than the possible loan notes issued.

If they tried to get the SP down they could hardly have done better if they had tried - and anyone looking at this must wonder if they are. Is this an exit strategy whilst proclaiming not me guv? Maybe PPP are equally up s**t creek and need an alternative to working over wells that might water out rapidly?

DL rides to the rescue with BS about billions of barrels in the Kimmeridge at HH (not the 1.5mmbbls reported by RPS) and the whole rinse and repeat cycle can start again.

Anyway let's hope the Supreme Court decision is next week, after all an instant win of converting HH-2z to a water injector has been on hold, apparently, because they don't do risky things when there's a tiny chance that the judgement might go against SCC, but happily drill very risky wells in Turkey.

and don't get me started on spending every spare hundred thousand pounds on preparing to apply for government support for the vanity has storage project.

Surely there is a situation where anyone at the GM has 'insider' information as to why the meeting was adjourned / abandoned.

The company needs to RNS exactly what happened and why they didn't proceed to the votes on the proposals.

It might just be a minor procedural formality or major issue - and those present will be in a position to trade the share accordingly - for instance if it threatens the existence of UKOG they'd know to sell, if it's easily solved maybe buy in the current turmoil.

Insidious,

Horse Hill on line??????

Are there still enough mugs out there that might believe that the Supreme Court verdict will suddenly make Horse Hill successful.

Unfortunately the Portland will still be producing from a limited layer that's fractured and those fractures are likely to be filled with water. As for the Kimmeridge if it was worth producing they would have swapped HH-1 to produce from it in 2020. Anyway they're acquiring seismic first which might remove the strange culmination slated as the target for HH-3.

Consolidation stabilise the SP - if only they didn't already have a load of loan notes waiting in the wings.

But first they need to sort this mess out, then they can issue shares to the CLN holders who will mysteriously manage to sell their shares before they strike a conversion price.

Though, assuming UKOG told the truth in the original CLN RNS (a stretch) that the 2 additional tranches of £500,000 were 'committed', even at 0.1p the outstanding loan notes would be equivalent to 1.66 billion shares - ie more than 50% of those currently in issue with a 10 to 1 consolidation and thus more than the GM requested authorisation.

Can't wait for the full revelation of what went wrong at the GM - some chance.

Dvt,

though interesting it's nearly an anagram of dave at the gate.

The 3 November RNS has this -

'The Loan's first tranche of 1,300,000,000 has been converted by the Investors at an average price of 0.0504 pence per share. Investors can elect to convert the second tranche of 1,424,487,652 Equity Shares at the lower of the Variable Price* or the Fixed Price**'

Note the first tranche was converted at 0.0504p - unless the LN holders were n=bonkers they would have converted when the vwap was that in late July or early August - and they can only elect a vwap up to 15 days after. But the share action looks like they were selling in late July early August.

then this:-

'Application has been made for the first and second tranches of the Equity Shares, numbering 2,724,487,652 ordinary shares in total, to be admitted to trading on AIM ("Admission"). Admission is expected to take place at 8.00 a.m. on or around 8 November 2023.'

SP until late November was at least 10% above 0.025p until late November yet in the next CLN RNS on 10 January 2024:-

'The Investors converted the Loan's second tranche of 1,424,487,652 shares at an average price of 0.025 pence per share.'

ie at a vwap only available later in November though the seconnd tranche of equity shares were 'created' in early November (and in reality probably sold before then). Just because they only got round to making a filing for that conversion in February is meaningless - they haven't, as ibug has pointed out, filed the more recent conversions or the placing.

Ibug,

UKOG appear to be playing fast and loose with the share numbers they're filing.

Claiming the 1.3 billion shares that were priced at a vwap no later than early August were issued after 8 November when the market was informed cannot be truthful can it? At the same time (8Nov) they appareetly issued 1.4+ billion (loan note) shares at a price of 0.025p although a vwap of that level wouldn't have been available until late November.

Were the shares given out so they could be sold into a dropping price - sort of UKOG effectively aiding forward selling?

As you point out no subsequent share issued have been filed, you would think going into a GM the minimum would be to file how many shares are in circulation rather than filings made late about shares issued last year.

Whilst UKOG has RNS'd the subsequent shares issued that take the number of shares in circulation to the maximum allowed from last years AGM has UKOG issued shares already, knowing they can get away with declaring them at a later date in exchange for loan notes in excess of the authority given at the AGM in expectation of a pass at the GM?

....... and that is probably not this sort of rule stretching (not informing the market asap shares have been issued) that caused the GM to be abandoned.

Ocelot,

The issue isn't the lack of plans. It's the lack of detail about them, even for those they have a considerable amount of information about.

HH - years of data, a June 2019 RPS Kimmeridge report produced during testing, Portland determined an 'outside verified' decline curve for HH-1 resulting in a NPV valuation of £0.8mm. Comments in planning applications for other sites that the Kimmeridge at HH and BB was uneconomic (Loxley), that delay at HH and Loxley was due to the legal challenges (BB) - but no full explanation as to the reasoning in RNS - just inaction.

Loxley - poor checking of the CPR with significant error/s, obvious UKOG meddling in the outcomes and expectations. But at least there'sa CPR even if the input data is Spa rs e. Most companies mention at least 'interest' or visits to data rooms. Interest seemingly something they are happy to mention with the gas storage project.

Turkey - initial expectations driven by UKOG making false comparisons with distant fields in Kurdistan and nearer fields in a different reservoir whilst not detailing information about a poorly performing field on trend nearby. Abandoning the main targets for reasons that should have been apparent during due diligence when farming in. Then Pinarova based on weak supposition because it was cheap - suggestions from AME UKOG were paying 100% (not a positive) and then ploughing on when it was pretty obvious it was a hopeless cause.

Leaving the money pit of Portland Port: UKOG attaching themselves to the Solent hub some 80km distant, perhaps for the credibility of being able to mention ExxonMobil and spending cash raised without full explanation of how this will benefit UKOG investors (who presumably in the main invest for short term results) near or medium term, in the hope of receiving government support being decided later this year.

Ocelot doesn't give suggestions as to what UKOG should do going forward, here's mine though:-

Only progress Loxley with a farminee in place

Sell the Portland Port project

Immediately convert HH-2z regardless of the Supreme Court - though should have been done as soon as all technical clearances and permissions were in place. Get the seismic shot and get a CPR..

Either farm out with a carry or get out of Turkey.

and stop pushing the boundaries of honesty about what you're doing.

Northfork,

Just one point - those so called 'derampers'. Did it never occur to you that maybe those posting that the projects would fail, certainly those that explained why, it wasn't deramping, it was being honest - it wasn't what cause everything to fail though.

As for red tape and judges I suspect that the technical risk was, and is, far higher than the risk of losing to the challenges - perhaps that's more of a reason for UKOG dragging their heels at HH and not expediting getting the planning conditions passed for Loxley - and of course spending all the cash raised on Turkey and the gas storage project.

It's been over 3 1/2 years since UKOG farmed in to Turkey - no protesters or legal challenges there yet progress hasn't exactly been fast - probably for the same reason, the acreage just isn't that good.

Good luck with He1 - remember that not every poster branded as a deramper is necessarily deramping.

As for today's RNS - usual smoke & mirrors - who raised questions about the proposals, why were they accepted as credible enough to stop the meeting? All seems a bit amateur, and until UKOG get authority to issue more shares theoretically no more loan notes can be converted - regardless that the SP (and vwap) is below nominal value - if it wasn't for the lack of authority to issue more shares I suppose they could convert at a premium to the SP though, if they were mad.

Maybe,

but the first tranche of 'equity shares' were issued and sold around early August (from the vwap price they were converted at (0.0504p and the large sells around that time) but not announced until November.

I have no idea if this would have been within the rules about keeping the market informed of the number of shares in issue, but otherwise the holders of the loan notes would have lost a lot of money selling any time near November as the SP was around 0.03p

I don't think nominee account shares can be voted except by the owner. When UKOG give actual votes rather than percentage of votes submitted the number is usually very low, yet nominee accounts are where a large percentage of shares are held - those holding over 3% had 76% of the shares (though the list on the UKOG site is as at 9 Nov 2023).

For example at the 2023 AGM about 600million votes were cast when the total shares in issue were 21 billion - less than 3%.

I'm afraid that ocelot (surely ostrich) fails to mention that UKOG probably has loan notes of £1,660,000 outstanding (ie not converted to shares yet) - equivalent to about 50% of the market cap - ie more or less equivalent to their proposal to issue 50% more shares - which apart from the hazard of being below the nominal value explains the need for this meeting..

I put 'probably' because the £1,660,000 includes the 2 committed tranches, each of £500,000, the last to be taken before 16 February (a coincidence?), but UKOG hasn't mentioned them since the RNS announcing the loan note raise in June last year - though UKOG not mentioning something perceived as negative is not unusual.

Ibug,

The question is what are their obligations to the CLN holders? If they do any sort of meaningful placing they will swallow up the newly available shares. But will the CLN holders want another £2 million loan notes - though they could do a deal with anyone wanting to take over UKOG without buying in the market - so further stuffing share holders.

Neither.

No more raises or CLNs except to fund their equity in drilling, not for the vanity Portland Port with SS hobnobbing near ExxonMobil etc when they're miles to the west of The Solent.

First slash salaries, give shares instead for a year to the BoD, and part pay below board level in shares. Get rid of all consultants - concentrate on HH and Loxley.

Divest Portland Port it's an infrastructure project with long term outcomes that don't fit with the short termism of drilling for success - even if success doesn't happen.

Get a partner in to drill Loxley at any price, even if they want 75% equity (or more) to pay 100% .

Get the HH water injector up and running.

Ditch Turkey, AME farmed it outbecause the licence was rubbish - probably farmed out because the lookalike E Sadak field was performing badly, and Resan Basur was worse - it was going to be relinquished without someone else paying for drilling.

I know I'm negative about Loxley and even the water injector at HH but without drilling in the near term this company is dead. Hopes of government grants maybe allocated next year, or a large partner in UKEn isn't going to generate funds for exploration/appraisal this year.

Not sure what I would do about the PPP farm in. Their silence since early December about their workover wells is ominous. Without success there the farm in is unlikely - though at least they have some headroom for placings - but probably not for £4.6mm - and it would be foolish to shoot the seismic then not be able to fund the well.

But stop trying to be BP - it' an AIM oiler.

When the reason UKOG has consolidated appears to be because the SP was dangerously close to the nominal value, and likely with bad news about to be announced to go below, and therefore they wouldn't be able to issue more shares in exchange for loan notes it has already given out (£1,160,000). They also needed authorisation to issue more shares as they had already used up the previous authorisation, 50% more.

Without 'news' let alone a something actually being done successfully, there's no reason for the mcap to rise when more shares are issued as UKOG has already had the £1,160,000 and quite possibly spent it, though there is the committed £500,000 due before 16 February. At either 0.001p or 0.01p the new total of £1,660,000 in loan notes outstanding would require more than 50% more shares requested to be issued.

Pre consolidation, with a SP of 0.01p that's 16.6 billion shares needed vs the request for authorisation to issue 14,767,500,000 shares.

Or post consolidation with an SP of 0.1p that's 1.66billion shares needed vs the request to issue 1,476,750,000.

Of course the CLN holders can't convert that volume of loan notes all in one go but over the next few months before the AGM they might have a good go at it.

So it looks like consolidation was just to recharge the confetti machine, the change in nominal value putting off the need to do it again until the new SP went down to the new nominal value of 0.0001p.

Not sure what happens if the GM vote goes against UKOG?

Ibug,

when I saw your post with this 'HORSE HILL LATEST: UKOG planning a downhole pump changeout and scale removal programme to enhance oil production from HH-1. Further updates to follow.' from memory I thought you were quoting from the 5/11/2020 RNS :-

''As previously announced on October 1st, the intervention's objective was to optimise oil flow by reperforating the full Portland oil producing section, inserting a new production tubing string and thus enabling the downhole pump to be placed at a deeper level. Originally the intervention was planned for April/May but, due to the COVID-19 lockdowns in both the UK and USA, a further unforeseen 6-month delay was introduced. Further updates will be reported when the PBU data has been fully analysed and interpreted.'

Of course I was wrong, but the promise of updates was there - anyone remember an update mentioning the findings of the PBU? Me neither.

But if the oil and water production is anything to go by I suspect the interpretation wasn't that positive. The daily production averages from OGA figures before and after the workover:-

Aug 2020 oil 128.4bopd water 45.9bwpd - sixth month of production

Sept 2020 oil 93.3bopd water 41.4bwpd workover started

Oct 2020 oil 47.3bopd water not reported workover

Nov 2020 oil 101.3bopd water 39.4bwpd

Dec 2020 oil 81.8bopd water 34.3bwpd

Jan 2021 oil 102.3bopd water 54.2bwpd

Feb 2021 oil 99.5bopd water 44.3bwpd

\Mar 2021 oil 104.7bopd water 50.5bwpd

Apr 2021 oil 101.1bopd water 46.8 bwpd

May 2021 oil 100.2bopd water 40bwpd - last month of ave. over 100bopd

So that workover that included reperforation, 8 months after production start at over 300bopd , with production dropped to 128bopd didn't seem to help at all.

I suppose UKOG will mention when it's done. or even when they do it - but will they mention daily production levels of oil and water - they haven't since 2020?

1000% rise guaranteed (assuming the SHs agree to it) next Monday morning - whoopee. Unfortunately not because of a UKOG success but a consolidation.

...........and it comes with the added bonus of an extra 50% shares they can hand over (mostly) in exchange for the remainder (£1.16mm) of the possibly already spent £2.5mm CLN, opportunities to average down without the risk of the SP being taken below the new nominal price for a long time.

and there's UKOG taking the 'committed' £500,000 before 16 Feb, although if 'committed' is the same as UKOG 'planning' something, maybe not

SRBS,

The timing of farming into Turkey (July 2020) was a distraction from HH as in the June 2020 Interim Report UKOG finally admitted that the repair to HH-2z hadn't worked and producing a lot of water, and UKOG knew, but didn't reveal, that HH was producing a lot of water as well.

More likely UKOG realised that HH was a dud , hence doing nothing there since, and needed a new story to spin - and they also would have known that E Sadak wasn't very good (lookalike to Basur-Resan) which is probably why they didn't give any details of its production, and compared it to fields in Kurdistan.

Not sure that anyone should have any sympathy for SS.

Does anyone believe that anything they do in the Kimmeridge at Loxley and Horse Hill will expand on the knowledge that they already have from the cored, logged and extensively tested Kimmeridge in BB-1/z.

Waiting for Loxley and Horse Hill is just an excuse for doing nothing since early 2018 in this retention application - which may seem plausible to planners not aware of the huge amount of data collected in the drilling and months of testing already.

They just want to hang on to the site as there's scope to string along punters with promises of further work 'in the future' - which, if it's after HH and Loxley, it might require a further extension assuming they get this extension.

If the other site uses are viable why haven't they fleshed out what those plans are to investors in the nearly 6 years since BB testing ended.

As for Portland gas storage it looks like a vanity project that, as I've previously posted, may be an opportunity for a sinecure / escape route for SS by floating/selling it off from UKOG.

NP,

all true - but UKOG has over the years over stated the likelihood of success, and for the one success(ish), HH, made claims during testing about production that weren't ever reached (or likely ever to be), and has never RNS'd oil / water daily production or a production forecast since soon after production began nearly 4 years ago.

UKOG has avoided scrutiny of HH by not getting a CPR on it - preferring to get reports, and making internal calculations that they use but don't publish.

UKOG influenced parts of the Loxley CPR (gas price resulting in the highest NPV and single well production level) and there is one definite erroneous conclusion, which importantly justifies the GWC inferred at Alfold which in turn justifies the closure UKOG map and thus the volumetrics that feed into the NPV.

As for Turkey it was (and is) disgraceful how they failed to reveal any production details of the E Sadak field despite it being operated by AME and described as a lookalike to Basur. In their 2022 Annual report AME reported 0.5mmbbls 'reserves' and 250bopdproduction from multiple wells, did UKOG do any due diligence on what they were told about E Sadak? As for Pinarova drilling downdip of a well that tested oil cut water was never going to work, but UKOG persisted for 8 months with the sham that testing a zone with an oil smell was worthwhile - coincidentally when there was nothing else happening.

But not everyone is able to understand and scrutinise UKOG's claims and thus rely on the honesty of SS when he proclaims how good every new project is and those that predicted failure, and justified why, have been repeatedly ridiculed as 'greens. nimby's ctc on this board and elsewhere and even blamed for the poor share price - as if being right about the likelihood of failure caused the failure.

Shhhh.

Once upon a time that many shares were worth £10,000.

I sometimes wonder, when ocelot informs the board UKOG has the highest number of trades that day, or another poster rejoices in a 50,000,000 buy, whether they realise that a SP of just over a hundredth of a penny means 50,000,000 shares cost little more than £5,000.

Maybe ocelot has the SP filtered along with anyone who doesn't think everything UKOG does is fantastic and failure is always a precursor to success, because UKOG says it is.

Ibug,

'Is it going to be another day of 0.011 0.012 ?'

Obviously not. Way things are going it will be cheaper to buy in the market than UKOG can 'make' those golden tickets for. I wouldn't know if, or how many, any other companies have managed to get their SP below nominal value - but UKOG is sure trying.

Ocelot,

Doesn’t it worry you that UKOG value the undrilled part of the HH field 14.25 times the value of a well they have years of data for – and have choosen not to get a CPR done for HH that would provide an independant view of HH.

But nothing appears to worry ocelot.

Another consideration is that if PPP farm in then UKOG will only have half its present equity in non-HH-1 production (if successful). If PPP don't farm in UKOG will need to raise £4.6mm (+?) to shoot the 3D then drill HH-3.