Member Info for Penguins

'ignor the idiots who claim they can fortell the outcome of the drill. they are full of ****e.'

Strange how the ****e that 'the idiots' claim has been proved right so often - and how wrong you've proved to be. But then I don't suppose you'll be holding on to your newly minted shares until UKOG RNS the results of the Pinarova test.

Nobody can be certain of course, but expecting anything but something positive that leads to looking for where the oil comes from seems to be what UKOG were expecting in the September RNS:_

'With this in mind, should further testing be positive, consideration is being given to the acquisition of a small 3D seismic programme to identify a possible deeper oil pool, seepage/spill from which being the most likely primary source of both the seep and Pinarova oils.'

But even that is disingenuous as where the oil came from might be an active source migrating straight into the shallow section at the shothole and the not much deeper probably very 'tight' Germik, rather than a leaking deeper accumulation somewhere around the area. Even if there was a deeper accumulation it would probably be in the Mardin a fractured carbonate reservoir with rapid decline in E Sadak.

As for what they're quite possibly re-testing - the earlier perforating might have reached the formation and it was tight - the Germik (oil odour formation) was only considered for testing after the Pinarova target/s were found to be dry and they scrambled around to find a reason to keep the fantasy going so elected to test a non-reservoir layer where an oil smell was observed, by the UKOG geologist on site, but wasn't reported at the time, probably because they had decided it wasn't worth testing as they cased the well and drilled ahead.

Almost immediately in the Hoya they got oil shows (not just a smell) - and stopped to test - which failed.

As you mention PPP they've gone quiet after almost weekly updates in November about CT-1H production and no news about the progress of the workover of CT-4H which started in mid December.

As for this - 'and pin point portland and kimmeridge oil pools at hh with the more accurate seismic information accumulated.'

More likely remove the culmination contoured between seismic lines at HH, the target for HH-3 - just like the Basur-4 target that the Basur phase 2 seismic appears to have removed or at least reduced considerably.

Ocelot,

last night you posted:-

'There is a potential reversal of situation here: with so many shares in issue, any rise in the share price will quickly increase market cap to level where it becomes easier to finance the company's needs.'

Looking at the way they're able to issue a billion plus shares to the CLN holders without informing the market for months they might already have increased the mcap without anyone knowing (apart from UKOG, the CLN holders and any one they tell privately).

Cunning plan though, issue billions upon billions of shares so a rise of 0.001p is worth about £287,000 pity it trashed the share price to do it - and if the CLN holders have converted another billion or so shares we might hear about eventually (today's vwap under 0.018p) that's increased the value of the company by £177,500 at this evening's mid price - no flies on ocelot or SS.

Jeez ocelot,

The share price is less than 0.02p. There's shares worth over £100 each, or half a million UKOG shares - yes you can get more than a million UKOG shares for less than £200 - not all that long ago they would have cost £10,000 - @1p a share - though there were a lot fewer shares in issue.

Tor example 150 AZN shares cost a lot more than 75 million UKOG shares - not sure that UKOG regularly being the largest traded share means anything anymore - especially when there's holders of billions of shares eager to get rid of them, and in the case of the CLN holders ever more shares for their loan notes as the SP (and vwap) declines.

Ocelot,

Surely It's a very different question for true investors especially ones that presumably haven't sold a single share because the outlook is always so positive, such as yourself. Traders and unbelievers in the BS maybe can buy and hope that there's a P&D before the results of the Pinarova test, just like the swabbing test in April and that the holders of billions of shares don't hog the selling - or that the Supreme Court decision or one of the farm outs happens and it can be pumped before anyone enticed into buying realises nothing much will happen before H2 2024, or quite possibly 2025.

IG,

The downside risk is that not only are there nearly 4 billion placing shares from last Friday but also, depending on how truthful the June CLN RNS was, there's definitely £800,000 or probably £1,300,000 (rising to £1,800,000 in February) of loan to clear. At 0.02p (though Friday's vwap could be 10% lower) that could be a conversion of 4, 6.5, or 9 billion more shares - up to 50% more shares for cash they seem hell bent on spending in the hope of getting an allocation of government cash, probably from a new government and maybe the allocation won't be until 2025.

Near term PPP seem to have gone quiet about their wells after almost weekly updates in November - so how quickly they will be able to farm in to HH is an unknown, and they start by shooting 3D, so no well until H2 2024 at best ppresumably the PPP AGM voted in favour of being able to issue over 100 million shares - although they first need to replace about 60 million borrowed shares. Loxley seems to have no takers and Pinarova they're testing what's probably a tight zone that had an oil smell, the pre drill targets being dry. The most likely fairytale for the best outcome - some recovered oil - Is they'll keep flogging that dead horse.

Loxley farm out. Heralded as a pre-planned farm out as if farmouts usually just happen unplanned, some posters assumed it could be rapidly consummated. With no takers early in 2023 a CPR was produced on hardly any data with a revised interpretation of the Alfold well supposedly proving it had a GWC similar to the GWC in Godley Bridge-1 - this was contrary to all previous analyses including the Final Well Report (FWR) and various licence applications (available on the UKOGL site).

Warning - for those of limited attention span stop reading here (if you haven't already)

Hung over today and had another look at the Loxley CPR whilst watching the snooker:-

The revised analysis of the Alfold well included a poroperm crossplot (fig 5:14) with ellipses meant to demonstrate that the reservoir properties above the GWC in GB-1 and Al-1 were preserved because of gas emplacement. A cursory look at the two crossplots clearly show that the green and red data points (coloured depending on depth) are reversed. In fact the opposite is endorsed by the core phi (porosity) plot in the Alfold well log petrophysical display (figure 5:17) - incorrectly identified as GB-2z - which shows core phi (porosity) down at around 10% above the supposed 2945ft TVDSS GWC, but vastly improved to 20%+ below 2945ft TVDSS the GWC in GB-1 and hoped for in Alfold – they haven’t plotted the core permeability in fig 5:17 but it is shown in figure 5:18 (furthest to the right column in the Al-1 panel), more difficult to see on this multi well display though clearly permeability (red * points) is far worse above 2945ft TVDSS than below.

Alfold rft data is mentioned, though only from below the GWC (and is water gradient), but not mentioned in the CPR were the four failed rft in the supposed good reservoir around 2925ftTVDSS (Top Portland Sst at 2919ftTVDSS) - the formation is described as tight in the FWR

Another supposed support to the GWC is the increase in resistivity above 2945ft TVDSS taken as indicative of gas above 2945ft TVDSS - but could this be a response to the tight formation RPS/UKOG appear to not realise exists?

Either earlier today or yesterday someone asked when the HH decision would be handed down.

Not mentioned for next week.

Pinarova - but that's not until the end of next week, or the week after.

Loxley farmout?

SRBS,

To break even, let alone profit, don't the placees need to sell at 0.02p, and the MMs agree to buy them at 0.02p?

More likely this buying is being supplied by CLN shares where at least they can convert at today's vwap - and get 4.5% added to the loan. As I've pointed out there's not much headroom for UKOG to issue shares (less than a billion) but as they seem to be able to avoid norms by not revealing when and not adding the converted shares to the total until months laterit looks like they don't have a limit to shares they can issue despite the AGM limit.

Now that there's a floodof shares bought below 0.02p if there is a P&D on news all those that bought recently (after Xmas) are going to be struggling to get out before the dump, and there's no guarantee that the CLN holders might work hard to get the price lower if they are selling today.

Ridiculous situation - just to hope to get a grant for the Portland Port project.

Indeed with traders coming on to this board trying to profit by claims of successful projects ahead, but to make money can only do it by selling before the results, and then disappear - as long as they time it right - before the fateful well test results RNSs.

Even the continual supposedly good test results at HH served only to help the SP limp along and in production the reality of the detail missing from the UKOG RNS came home to roost.

Best get back to those other forums where you can get away, without challenge, with posting UKOG PR that so often turns out to be misleading at best.

3.75 billion more shares and quite possibly still billions of CLN shares that will need more authority to issue, though given they didn't admit that addition shares were converted until months later (converted in early August, mentioned in November) maybe they can wait until after the AGM to adjust the total shares in issue.

That was covered in the latest CLN RNS.

It's the third tranche of equity shares issued at 0.022p. Wonder what the next tranche will be issues at?

If the Portland Port project is so investable why don't they float that project off, see if it can be funded on its own merits rather than subsidised by investors in oil and gas, and give UKOG investors the choice to keep or sell their shares in what is effectively an utility.

They currently have authority to issue 8.43855 billion shares from the 2023 AGM.

Before today's raisee they've issued under this CLN 3.8221 billion shares, which left about 4.6 billion shares UKOG can issue until the next AGM - unless they call an EGM.

They still have about £800,000 of the CLN remaining to be conveerted, and if the June CLN RNS is to be believed they took another £500,000 in November, and there's another £500,000 in February.

Yet with today's placing have now issued 7.57 billion shares, leaving about a billion shares authority left.

What have they done with the money, and what does it say about the oil and gas properties that SS has bet the farm on getting a government subsidy for a gas storage project.

Presumably SS has pointed out the likelihood of a P&D on news, not success at Pinarova.

I haven't looked but did Zak Mir pump UkOG yesterday?

Hmmmm.

It's the delusion that anyone would need to pay for something the company does almost without fail - fail because they choose projects that are high risk and low reward - which is no surprise given they can't afford to offer a competitive work programme in licence applications or a farm in work programme to secure decent projects.

But then they fail to offer opinions other then highly unlikely outcomes (taken as facts by some). For instance they failed to give any information about production well flows and decline from the lookalike E Sadak field operated by AME in Turkey. The 2022 AME Annual Report gave total E Sadak field production from the producing wells (most from 13 drilled) of 250bopd, and using more rigorous analysis the E Sadak field reserves dropped from 25mmbbls to 0.5mmbbls - Resan licence recoverable resources went from 23 to 7.3mmbbls in the 2022 Annual Report.

So what are they hiding that they know about Pinarova - there were posters (you know the supposed swampies, nimby xr brigade) were saying the reasoning to drill Pinarova seemed to be it was cheap, not because it had a good chance of success when it was essentially a downdip appraisal of a well that produced water with an oil cut.

Loxley is another high risk 'appraisal' of the Godley Bridge-1 well that depends on a new, but flawed, interpretation of the Alfold well that has driven UKOG to impose a saddle between two seismic lines to facilitate structural closure matching the GWC in GB-1. The CPR reflects that the well needs to find the gas column and reservoir properties 'expected' for the resources quoted.

and still UKOG avoid converting HH-2z to a water disposal well - an easy £250,000 a year win, the amount UKOG claim would be saved. What risks are likely from injecting into a fractured reservoir........imagine.

Oops,

Should have been a 'n't':- 'So even UKOG admitted fully funded for Pinarova before the raise wasn't the truth. Not sure who's worse at predicting the need for more funding you or UKOG.'

Received the second tranche of the loan of £0.5mm - which according to the June RNS would be taken by 17 November?

If they have then there is £1.3mm loan remaining and there's another £500,000 due on or before February 16.

No clarity, a bit like the initial announcement where there was only a single 'award' of 'equity' shares - being in fact 'shares' - that, like Schrodinger's cat, are in circulation and also not in circulation until some time later when UKOG deign to let the rest of their shareholders, and market, know they have been issued and at what price. Seems now that unlike the previous CLN UKOG will continue hand over a billion shares or so and leave it weeks or months until announcing that there's more tranches of 'equity shares' so no one confuses them with 'shares' they've given but have no idea when, or for how much, they'll be converted for - or maybe they do - just don't want to tell the mug punters.

Perhaps they should have called them Schrodinger shares instead of equity shares.

We now have a reincarnation of JR/Ells/G-martin who thought that only posting once on the same board with 2 accounts meant that no rule was broken - it was.

But just looked back to June before the £3mm was raise announced and I have endless replies to JR/Ells/G-martin's claims UKOG wouldn't need to raise explaining a raise would be needed - and at the end of June, guess what......£3 million raise.

Here's an extract from thestart of my post on 26 June 2023:-

'Ells / JR90 / G-Martin,

you posted:-

'Company has ample funds to cover its share of the planned drilling and testing campaign'

But they didn't include any such statement in the interim report - and in the AGM notice they were quite clear:-

'Consequently, in order to deliver the Company’s stated strategy and growth objectives, it will require further funds for the above intended comprehensive work programmes' - which included mention of Pinarova , and many other funding needs. You keep suggesting, bizarrely, that they can't raise for anything else because UKOG said they had ample funds for Pinarova.'

and of course when the CLN was announced what was part of it for:-

'Turkey: further testing of Pinarova-1 and further drilling preparations/studies'

So even UKOG admittedfully funded for Pinarova before the raise was the truth. Not sure who's worse at predicting the need for more funding you or UKOG.

What's the expectation for authority to issue more shares at the next AGM now that HH is so 'profitable' and they're 'fully funded', that's if they can wait until then - 20 billion? or the equivalent if they were to consolidate?

Another just over a week has passed since I posted this on 3 January.

'Another RNS of no news - with a promise of news in the future, that will probably not be news of the testing results but arrival of the equipment on site - is the repetitive issuing of 'news' tweets and RNS a contractual obligation of the CLN?'

Seems I was wrong, not even news of equipment on site.

I thought I was joking about the repetitive issuing of tweets and RNS being a contractual obligation of the CLN - but considering the number of tweets (12) and RNS (4) so far in January..........and they haven't tweeted about their road and pad repair abilities yet this morning.

'NEW YEAR, NEW AMBITIONS: UKOG and UK Energy Storage are busy on multiple fronts:

Portland hydrogen storage' - surelybeing done by consultants and outside consultancies

'testing at Pinarova-1 in Turkey' - being operated by AME

'and exploring fresh opportunities at Horse Hill'...... - farming out both the 3D seismic and well to PPP who haven't consummated the deal

........'and at Loxley' - being farmed out to anybody, just not yet, but planning conditions still to address - presumably by the planning consultancy

'There’s a lot in store in 24! #renewableEnergy #hydrogenstorage #oil' - well probably not a lot of oil and zero renewable energy until the end of the decade......

So what didn't they do in 2023 (and 2022, and even possibly 2021 - HH-2z conversion anyone?)? that they're really really (fingers crossed) going to do in 2024?

Remember this:-

UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM

Jul 5, 2022

JUMPING FOR JOY IN JUNE: The govt backs our Portland Port energy project … The govt backs our gas appraisal project at Loxley … PLUS encouraging oil seep in Turkey and new seismic plan at Horse Hill. And now for July!'

what happened.......

As for the CLN - this from RNS 4 June 2020 about paying off the previous CLN - with a placing:-

'The repayment eliminates the uncertainty attached to Loan Note conversion timings and pricing, something the Company feels was perceived to exert a negative influence on the Company's share price.'

Perceived??????

They currently have authority to issue 8.43855 billion shares from the 2023 AGM.

So far they've issued under this CLN 3.8221 billion shares, leaves about 4.6 billion shares UKOG can issue until the next AGM - unless they call an EGM.

Not only haven't they formally notified Companies House of the rise in confetti they also are late filing their confirmation statement as ibug pointed out - from Companes House:-

'Confirmation statement overdue

Next statement date 30 November 2023

due by 14 December 2023'

So when did the issue of these shares happen?

3 November 1,424,487,652 second tranche of equity shares (aren't shares 'equity' in a company?) the SP was about 0.03p and didn't drop to 0.026 until near the end of November, now they seem to have quickly converted a third tranche at a 0.022p vwap available before xmas. Seems this latest CLN avoids the nasty business of telling the market within 3 days of being handed the shares.

so 1.3 billion at 0.0504 =£655,200

1,424,487,652 at 0.026p = £372967

and 1,087,649,954 at 0.022p = £239,283

4.5% added to the loan = £57,035

Gives a total off th £2,000,000 of £1,210,415

However there was meant to be £500,000 'delivered before 17 November, and there's meant to be another £500,000 before 16 Feb.

It was headlined as a '£3 million funding facility'.

so not £800,000 left but in total by 17 February, if the original RNS announcement is to be believed, of £1,800,000 - fancy UKOG not mentioning the second and third tranche of the loan.

At 0.03p that would be another 6 billion shares (+4.5%)

and they will have got about 360 million warrants for the 0.022p shares at a price 0.0308p.

'We believe that successful project will be beneficial to local and national level energy, economic and net zero interests'

Believe - that's a resounding endorsement from the team that seemed to believe that every project UKOG has been involved in will be transformational often with very little justification, or even ignoring very obvious negative information.

Perhaps it's just that they don't say which direction the SP will be transformed.

Loxley isn't a low risk appraisal well, the previous appraisals of GB-1 (GB- 2 & 2Z) failed, and mostly based on the latest interpretation of the Alfold-1 well, near Loxley, that has identified a GWC in that well that is at odds with every previous interpretation that there was no gas column.

UKOGs speciality seems to be proving that a follow up to a poor well isn't worth it. They even managed to do it with their follow up to HH-1.

How UKOG manages to claim so much from so little evidence.

If, and it’s an enormous ‘if’, Loxley is a commercial find (if drilled?), given that one of main justifications of a GWC the same as Godley Bridge-1 is based on a wrong poroperm correlation between Alfold-1 and GB-1, the gas will just feed into the grid (at ‘up to’ 30mmscf/d from a single onshore well!) and whatever gas goes into the plant where natural gas is reformed into hydrogen it won’t be the gas from Loxley if it’s in Portland port – a location that makes them a very distant member of ‘The Solent Cluster’ (about 50 miles from Southampton).

But the hydrogen production and storage at Portland is supposedly going to be production of green hydrogen using power from a so far unplanned wind farm offshore Portland.

Strangely there is no mention of Portland port in any of the government reports as far as I could find – despite the many mentions that UKOG has made of government support – or as I would put it kind words.

As for Horse Hill perhaps the desperation of our returnee is showing with the resurrection of tweets of pictures of the Esso aviation(?) fuel pipeline. There is no way that HH will ever produce enough oil daily to require a pipeline for export - last October, the latest NSTA figures available, it needed about 3 oil tankers a fortnight - an average of 45 bopd .