Member Info for Pelle

Hi Kraken, I not expert on shorts but don’t we want to have a big % shorts when share is low? So if positive news share will rocket even more.

Hi Jan, Yes I remember it. I also thought about exit 100k lots at tops. But never done it. But at last RI I was prepared because I knew this will be a mess with 2 different timelines SE and UK and poor info in SE. And I was so right, share even spiked 20% without RI rights. So I wanted sell. But account was locked and until I get hold on right trading people at bank it was already on way down much. I sold little 50k but I didn’t feel good holding 5 % less shares and a week later got chance get them back bit cheaper. My average is similar to yours

Honestly I think few here cares if it’s 18 or 20 p today. 3-5 years from now its 50/50 chance we either at above 100 p or still stuck at 20p. I take that bet!

Haha January 1 % is better then Sweden I think. Why not consider the Enq bonds now? If I was in uk I would consider put a part there. We all had several times during last year sell of with good profit but every time at least I thought this it now it will continue. Remember one time you wrote you sold on a top. Well done!

I was thinking so too, only we who solid longterm holders

Anyone saw any news related to the drop?

Maybe your right DD,

I think I just heard Jefferies who handle the potential 20% kraken sale.
Think they got upset after that.

AB better call the ones you mention:-)

DD, you mean our friends at Jefferies?

Hi E
Yes, ofcourse its easy say it now but we didnt talk about it then.
To hedge with swaps contract at 75-80 usd 50% volume through 2019 would be good even if oil went higher or lower in my mind. Ofcourse not maximized profit if went higher. But they could then even extend hedge horizon at even higher levels.

Yes, market was shouting for 100 usd. Did you believe it likely?

How much more market inteligence does enquest have then us? I guess a lot.
I assume they must have known that Saudi / Russia started pumping fully already in the summer.
But they didnt see the sanction waivers coming.
Would have been interesting know how business is done at Enq, who decide hedge? Do they have meetings and AB have final vote?

Anyway I feel optimistic going into Feb-April, Opec cuts will start to bite and fear of Iran sanction runing out.
Then I think we back in 70-80 range and possibly more

Evening E,

We really into small details now:-)

Would been better AB hedged at 80 and we could all doing other things and just let the money roll in
Hope we soon get second chance and get it right

Hi E,

I see it:-)
Magnus H1 average 13,4k
H2 average 15k ( assuming 17,5k Nov/Dec)

Gives H2 = 2,7 milj barrels x0,25 = 675 k x ( 72-12 usd) = 40,5 milj

Exactly:-) and those 39 milj paid of end year give or take 1 week.
would be earlier if oil didnt colapse

ok, leave you now for 2 hours badminton

I get bit different according to your "profit share" to BP
(25 % I have calculated paid of end year)

Roughly ( excluding interest)
75% = 13k x 50usd x 31= 20 milj/usd
Enq should ofcourse also have about 7 milj/month 2019 for the 25% on top of below ech month 2019

Dec 2018 , 20 milj BP
2019
Jan-May, 5x20 milj Enq
June-Dec 7x10 milj each BP/Enq

Hi Squif

Quite sure it was 39 milj vendor loan left a 1 July 2018.
Think you can find in last 6 months report

Hi Squif

I also calculated the 25% to be paid of end year basically.
with estimated prod 17,5k Noc,Dec and other Oga figures

Hi Fernan

I get bit different according to your "profit share" to BP
(25 % I have calculated paid of end year)

Roughly ( excluding interest)
75% = 13k x 50usd x 31= 20 milj/usd

Dec 2018 , 20 milj BP
2019
Jan-May, 5x20 milj Enq
June-Dec 7x10 milj each BP/Enq

Hi Squif and others

Please read below from Moodys.
And my Excel file is basically spot on with 65 usd average 350 milj FCF to Enq and 100 milj cash flow to BP (vendor loan and profit share)

Moodys:
EnQuest has a provision of $418 million immediately post closing, representing the outstanding vendor loan and BP's entitlement under the cash flow sharing arrangement discounted to present date. Moody's will treat this provision as debt.

EnQuest should generate EBITDA and FCF of around $950 million and $450 million respectively in 2019. Moody's expects that this cash surplus will be used to reduce adjusted debt, including inter alia the amortisation of the secured term loan, BP vendor loan and BP's profit share. Overall, Moody's estimates that this will help bring leverage down towards 3.0x at year-end 2019.

Hi Squif

If I get it right, Moodys include cashflow to BP in the 450 milj

Hello Fernan

Yes, I agree with your breakeven level.

But even at 60 usd oil we will do 200 FCF reduce debt by 10% but also consume 10% barrels in place.
So over years we need more then 60 average in my opinion.
In long term there also some other possitive things consider
2020 Reduced capex 100 milj?
In about 4 years, paid back BP profit share
In about 5-6 years paid of AK finance lease.

Good news is that end of the day today Enquest will have about 1 milj usd more in cash

These banks always bit behind and dont update too often.
Once oil goes above 70 again they need to upgrade back to 30-40p