Member Info for Pelle

Hi Fernan

Dont know if you seen this article, sounds bit same as your note.
It will be a game changer once US cant add more production then consumption in world increase.
Or even more interresting with US in flat or decline production.

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-coming-collapse-of-u-s-shale-oil-production

Good evening L3

Not really 2 milj shares but slightly above 1 milj personally I hold.
So its been 2-3 tough months and long 4 years with 2 times rasing money.
Could never imagine oil would stay this low for so long and that Enquest needed so high breakeven to payback debt.
I think I learn a lot on the way here but it have just also consumed my mind and time too much.
My biggest confidence in this is AB and his holding and additional buying.
At 40p if that happens I will unload some shares and seek some other investment to reduce volatility and sleep better.

POO, I hope we will look forward to some good months in Feb-April when Opec cuts start to bite and fears of Iran sanction start to kick in. If US and China can have a deal also it would be great.
Trend have been really good since new Year.

Kraken, its ok. Actually you made me happy for a short time thinking I was holding close 1% myself too

Hi L3,

No, I didnt try calculate Kraken stop in Dec. Guess its limited impact looking at full year.
Kind of given up estimate production and go for Enq guidance.

POO is more important now and just pray we can get back to 80 again in spring and put in hedge at that level.
IF they manage get Kraken to 40k its great bonus as I see it

Hi L3

Faysal had 587k before RI see Magnus prospect P8.
Not 100% sure didnt take up his part as he only senior Manager so maybe didnt need to report it.
Then there other names also under manager that didnt take up the RI

Hi L3,

That note about selling parts in Magnus,Kraken.
I guess its just something they say , keeping all doors open if they get a good offer.

It seems the also got Magnus opex wrong. It should be 11-12 usd/ barrel.
Kraken opex sounds like they estimate too low

Guy Butler Limited:
but later life assets such as Magnus typically have opex costs in the low
$30s/bbl with increased production from Kraken materially offsetting this figure (unit opex at Kraken is around $6/bbl).

Squif, I guess Faysal didnt have the cash.
He already have a big holding and the outlook back then at RI time have never been better.
I doubt he thought this will crash down to half value in 2 months.

All these directors and managers also get shares for free based on diffrent Enq performance keys.
Little bit too many in my eyes.

Kraken, he bought 0,1%

Hi Kraken,

The deal yday was under Double A and my take on it is that AB + Double A holds 154,5 milj

Hi Kraken,

Not sure, looking at Magnus prospect p8 seems his holding + Double A is less then 10%

Anyway, to get another 10 or 20% is not that easy

Good morning L3

I can only see that AB have 154 milj shares (including Double A), less then 10%.

Good morning E

Yes, they probably calculate as Moody's and include FCF to BP
I posted this before

Please read below from Moodys.
And my Excel file is basically spot on with 65 usd average 350 milj FCF to Enq and 100 milj cash flow to BP (vendor loan and profit share)

Moodys:
EnQuest has a provision of $418 million immediately post closing, representing the outstanding vendor loan and BP's entitlement under the cash flow sharing arrangement discounted to present date. Moody's will treat this provision as debt.

EnQuest should generate EBITDA and FCF of around $950 million and $450 million respectively in 2019. Moody's expects that this cash surplus will be used to reduce adjusted debt, including inter alia the amortisation of the secured term loan, BP vendor loan and BP's profit share. Overall, Moody's estimates that this will help bring leverage down towards 3.0x at year-end 2019.

Over 70k ? https://youtu.be/PIIsG3VF4C8

Hi Jan

Yes, I am also not to worried now and back in 2016 I was luckely not into the details and holding was less too.
Just that I want 10-15 usd higher oil price and 5-10k more production so we can have our party soon.

Kraken, yes agree.

Guess US shale killed the high prices as long as they can increase production with more then the world consumption increases. But I guess it will be more and more difficult add 1,5 milj barrels.

And I assume rest of the world might also soon start to get into decline in production

Good morning Jan

Yes, its correct 3 milj with floor at 70 usd so it can be sold higher also if oil is above 70.
Your not into the details? Lucky you I would say and you sleep good at night:-)

I was hoping for much more hedge (volume,horizon) with higher floor when we had such good moment in sep/oct.
Now we just can hope again someone hears our prayers and takes us back to 75-80 in spring

Chilting

Yes, I think everyone aware.
Just hope we can get done with DC4 and pay the invoices and lower capex to minimum after that.
And hopefully hit around 40k more stabel

Chilting, if Fernan right about Magnus waterfall cash flow we should have 100% cash flow from about now and 5 months forward. So that’s good if Kraken is low now

Haha, 60p. Guess he makes it 59p then now when he knows what we are up to

He bought 5+1,3 milj extra shares after RI