Member Info for Pelle

Hi Gkb,

ok, yes lets hope he know's more then the analysts:-)
Doubt there any conspiracy.

Lets hope for results better then expected, quite low expectations so.
could be some extra money if they get payments in Nov/Dec for oil delivered in Sept/Oct depending on payment terms. And if capex was lower in last two months.
( please no more not so good stuff in there)

Hi MINERB

Haha, yes sorry:-)

ENQ producer, thats terrible story even after the re-work in summer.

Hi Jan

Agree, it doesnt make sense drop the price of 150 milj shares invested just to buy 3 milj more.
Think he simply see this share price as a bargain and can't resist to pick up a few more and also send other's confidence for future.

Hi L3,

It was around 31/12 so no 60 days.

Sounds good, think we back to 70 already in February. Think Saudi go strong on the cuts in start

Pessimists and optimists have right equal amount of times. But optimists have more fun

Frac, what is Barclays style?

Kraken, yes and no. without Magnus and Kraken at 30k we could basically not reduce debt.
With a higher production profile we could have reduced debt and paid for Magnus without RI.
I think they expected Kraken to produce closer to 40k in 2018 but in spring summer they understood RI is nessesary to pay for Magnus.

Hi Plethorus,

I share your view, and at the moment north sea is the perfect playground for AB to make more deals.
Some of the big players wants out of the older fields with production of 10-20k.

This is first report I see that predict under supply soon.
AB: please keep fingers away from hedging yet:-)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/IEA-OPEC-Cuts-Put-Floor-Under-Oil-Prices.html

Hi Minerb

Not really.
Since 2015 he only did open offer and RI.
These last months he topped up that with 8 milj more shares.

SP short term movements always difficult predict, but clearly company moving in right direction and a complete failure of Kraken we can rule out.

Well, AB don’t seem to worried buying 2 milj shares last Friday. And total after RI is about 8 milj extra shares.

Hi L3

Yes, I saw your post about hedge but its complicated follow:-)
I try follow it every report how its develops over time.
I dont know this detail if they really need to maintain 3 months hedge due to creditors.
It doesnt feel good hedging in early January when they didnt hedge 2-3 months ago with oil at 80.

Hi L3,

Yes, its part of the plan if this comes good.
Not need to work every day and be able travel or maybe live other places in world.
Just feel free:-)

2019 average Group production expected to grow by around 20% to between 63,000 Boepd and 70,000 Boepd

Grippa, you need reduce above numbers
Magnus 6,5 k to BP
Malaysia 3 k goverment

Breakeven, I would say around 50 usd to reduce debt. After capex 250 milj. And paid leasing cost and interest

Hi Kraken, Yes, something like that. But it doesnt have to hold if they hedge as much as they can if oil spikes to 90. If they had hedged at 80 before we could safely cleared big part of RCF in bit over a year. If that would have been done we might have been close to 60p party also by now

Hi January

Yes, longterm this will most likely make a lot of money for the shareholders.
So its just try to hold on couple of more years.
Your planning a re-union party after 10 years too?

Hi Inner

Plethorus, here said that he heard AB say 1 bilj debt is ok. ( the bond's can be re-financed)
It makes sense , pay down the RCF in 2 years.
After that spend 50/50 casflow on devidend and addtional oil fields to continue grow or maintain prod.
Plethorus also said that he expect that Enq makes 2 more Magnus acquisitions over next 3 years to continue grow.
That also make sense to me.

AB and all shareholders also want want to get back the 200 milj soon that we put in extra the last 2 years.
Maybe in 3 years it can happen

Hi Fernan

Yes full agree with you, and last 4 years they have put big projects on hold so its basically the last few big coming online now and maybe 2019/2020 they will be in decline instead of flat.

And US added 2 milj barrels production 2018. They cant keep on doing that year after year.
If that start to get flat and even decline on some years..

All this might only be few years away and market could even start pick up on this now.

They say consumption will peak in 2030-2040 at 120-140 milj barrels something.
Its hard to see where all that will come from unless US manage add 1,5 milj barrels/year over the next 10-20 years.