Member Info for PEAKDREAD

I've been out of the business for 20 years - however from knowledge I have acrued since leaving it's pretty common for apprentices to move on after they've completed their apprenticeship. I think may apprentices move on to escape the "stigma" of being the apprentice and start afresh at a company where they don't have that tag. However I don't know what the score is at RR - As it's such a big company you'd be able to "escape the stigma" by moving departments - and they have a ton of opportunities for bright young things with a bit of oompf about them.

I saw a video the other day describing tarriffs.... The guy said imposing tarriffs is like hitting yourself in the head with a hammer. Kinda summed it up for me.

For anyone interested:

https://bsky.app/profile/acyn.bsky.social/post/3ltfv5qahoc26

The "crises" they were having at the time was filling skilled roles (turners / fitters etc, etc). I think the office based apprenticeships are more of a modern thing. I worked in HR and the situation got so bad we were banned from recruiting from certain companies as those companies were blaming RR nicking their staff on their inability to supply parts on time. Over-hiring apprentices and then farming them out to the supply chain actually worked really well.

RR has always been quite forward thinking when it comes to aprentices. I worked there 20 odd years ago and there was a massive skill shortage - However the supply chain companies weren't set up to take on apprentices (they (I believe) argued it was too costly, too time consuming, too much paperwork etc, etc) - so RR over-recruited apprentices and then fed them into the supply chain (with RR picking up the cost and paperwork) - It worked a treat.

Is Premier African Minerals in your mining pawtfolio NTC??? They've had a good couple of days....

Thanks Stiperstones - I just have this feeling that Tufan will realise what the market expects - and will probably look to exceed it. He'll be well aware of how the market will react to whatever he puts out there come the end of July - He won't want the SP to slump so you'd think he's working towards figures that will continue RR's upward trajectory (insofar as this is within his power - afterall figures are figures - he can only present what RR have actually achieved).. Long term still looks promising - although a nice upwards bump should never be scoffed at.

Thanks Riskawar, notzero and Phuket - £55m investment for 40% increased capacity seems a good deal. So capacity increasing, more product out the door, more revenue, more profit and PE still has some ways to go before becoming unmanageable. Thanks for the insight.

Just to get my head around your theory NTC.... What you're basically saying is RR has announced loads of good news which has positively affected the SP HOWEVER the return from this good news is in the distant future (especially the return on Narrow Body and SMR's) - Which means the SP is somehow "artificially high" or high based on future earnings which are potentially 5 years away?? Is that the jist of what you are saying? Is the SP therefore unsustainable (in the short term) based on what is coming in revenue / profit wise?? Are there other examples of companies with long lead times and bulging order books maintaining "unsustainable" SP's?

I'm holding long term as I too do not possess the skills to "trade" - I set up a dummy account to have a play and lost 5% of my start up funds in an hour... I was tinkering with the idea of placing a small bet on RR going up on results day - I take what you say Badlands - however RR has had a habit of surprising us over the last couple of years - Maybe they will indeed publish "super stellar results" rather than the stellar results the market is expecting? My logical side of my brain says just be satisfied with long term gains.... my gambling side of my brain is whispering in my ear thatt I should have a flutter.... Yes Cev, let's hope EEE can deliver what so many people are expecting. Sounds like it will be a couple of months for the lab work to be done and then analysed and then we should have a clearer idea of exactly what EEE has unearthed.

You can find yourself getting into a bit of a circle of confusion if you're not careful..... What exactly is better than expected? and if everyone is predicting "better than expected" and "better than expected" is delivered is that good enough for Mr Market? Is Mr Market secretly upping the ante behind the scenes and vowing the price will only rise substantially if the results are "much" better than expected - as "better than expected" is almost a given?I've seen too many companies in the past come out with stellar results and the price has flatlined / gone down as the market was expecting "super" stellar results.... I'm prehaps overthinking this..... :-)

Best of luck with that NTC. I hope the export license gets issued and the SP soars :-) I've been very hit and miss when I have ventured into the murky world of AIM.... My one big (ish) punt outside RR is EEE - It's looking good and if you believe the hype it's (almost) too good to be true - time will tell. We appear to be waiting for the results of an MRE which "could" send the SP shooting upwards (assuming it says what it's supposed to say :-)). Still think Royces has a bit to go so it continues to be my main stock... We really must catch up for a pint - I still have a bottle of champers for 1) Predicting £7 and 2) winning the last "guess the price" nonsense I organised :-)

Kodal's looking good. What other minnows are you fattening up?

It was indeed posted the other day.... and I noted the irony. Why aren't they using the fabled friend of green power - the battery??

You'd hope that Tufan / RR is going to come out with a set of numbers that not only hits target but also impresses the market - It's not his / their first rodeo. I do see your point though. The market can be a tough ba5tard to keep happy when you're flying high.

Shareflyers "attempted" dig - 0 recommends.

Svend's reposte- 15 recommends....

Says it all really.

Agree with Ar5senal and Robdon - only you can decide when to sell - Has it got further to go? - IMHO yes - however who knows what will happen tomorrow, next week, next month. If you are pleased with your return don't be afraid to sell - at the end of the day no-one knows where this will top out (apart from Svend...).

I personally think there's a fair bit still in the tank.

- Some sort of narrow body statement / clarrification (his year??)

- Some huge potential orders (china supposedly ordering 3 or 4 hundred airbus / Emirates possibly back in the game now the time on the wing issue has been addressed?)

- Stellar interim results end of this month??

- Some European SMR action?

- Did someone mention breaching £10 might open the door to more institutional investors (I personally don't get this - you can have a company worth £1000 with 100 shares whose shares sell for £10 - it doesn't make it a "catch")

- Increased defence spending?

- Something out of leftfield we don't know about yet?

Factors that could be a hindrence...

The Orange one

Covid 2 (although I think we'd deal with it differently this time)

WW3

Massive engine issue

On balance I think it has room to grow a bit more.

I understand Governments tweak numbers to make themselves look better but to go from ADP's -33K jobs to the Governments 100K+ jobs (using public sector and education to prop up the numbers) seems more than tweaking - it smells of fraud.... :-)

Polling has now closed for the "best guess" for the where the SP will be at COP on interim results day (July 31st). We have had 63 entries (I may have missed the odd person who failed to use the main thread but have tried to hoover up as may strays as possible) and the consensus of opinion is 10.89. That would be a 12% increase on where we are today. Fingers crossed... :-)

Hi Svend - I listened to an (admittedly rather left wing) podcast over the weekend who questioned these figures.... They're arguments were thus: Just a few days before everyone had beeen expecting the ADP Nattional Employment Report (an independant report on the Private Sector job market which uses payroll data) to show an increase of 100K jobs - but it showed a decrease of 33k jobs. Then the Government releases its figures which suggested an increase of jobs of 100K +??? Further analysis of the Governments "data" shows local government and education were the main drivers of this "growth" - The thing that sticks out as being a bit fishy is the fact that the orange one has (very publicly) been slashing government jobs (DOGE) - yet this is one of the sectors that is thriving. Quite why there was a similar surge in education is rather baffling - no new innitiatives that I'm aware of. Sorry for the long winded post but I'm concerned we are entering an era where "official" Government statistics may not hold the same weight as before - You may remember trump was convicted of fraud before entering office for the second time - and it was shown he had a very hazy relationship with the truth in the trial proceedings that earnt him felon status. I haven't searched for rattification of my misgivings regarding these numbers however on the surface they just don't add up / make sense when compared to the ADP figures which were gleaned and extrapolated from payroll data.