Member Info for Pdub

Just looking back at Vanchem production in Q1 RNS and Q2 H1 RNS interesting that the totals were 224 mtV and 191 mtV respectively. Immediately we can see the impact of shutting down Kiln 1 and the slower ramp up of Kiln 3 than expected.

The Interims RNS gave some interesting post period numbers for Vanchem. The numbers for July and August are 61 mtV and 151 mtV respectively. That’s a total of 212 mtV in just the first two months. That is significantly higher than the full three months of Q2 and only 12 mtV less than the full three months of Q1. And we still have September total to add. Given this statement in the RNS I would expect September to be even higher than August:

“… supported by improved operational stability at Vanchem which has continued into the month of September, …”

That will almost certainly result in a much higher total for both Q3 (perhaps approaching 300 mtV) and Q4 (500 mtV to 600 mtV?) than the previous Q production levels of Kiln 1 pre 2022 which were around 270mtV.

More good news deriving from these increased production levels is the reduction in costs associated with economies of scale. And remember some of the Vanchem products attract premium prices.

Then there was this good news:

“… Vametco continues to demonstrate solid and consistent production levels…. “

This is exactly what all the hard work and investment at Vametco in 2021 was designed to do and has resulted in an INCREASE in the production target.

Again from the RNS this prompted what we know to be a very conservative BoD to write:

“…. We are confident both plants will reach a combined annualised run rate of 5,000-5,400mtV by year end…. “

That is why I defend the BoD and say that they are continuing to deliver.

Obviously nothing is certain in the Vanadium market or for that matter on AIM, but if this progress is maintained and V prices remain high in at least their main markets then BMN should have an even better H2 compared to H1 and the prospects for 2023 look very exciting, particularly with electrolyte plant coming online in H1.

The current share price looks very cheap to me but that is just my opinion. Everything I have written either quotes information released by the company or uses that to draw conclusions.

Not ramping. Just trying to make sense of facts.

As always just my opinion. It hardly needs saying but for the benefit of the trolls don’t take my word for it …. Read the RNSs … properly! Draw your own conclusions.

The BMN story is a complex one but worth understanding.

I am not yet factoring in BE. If and when that comes good then lots of icing on an already large cake.

A reminder.

Some POSITIVES from H1 Interims 2022

Revenue of US$76.2 million (H1 2021: US$47.0 million)
Adjusted EBITDA1 of US$15.6 million (H1 2021: Adjusted EBITDA loss of US$10.8 million)
Operating profit of US$6.1 million (H1 2021: loss of US$19.7 million).
Free cash flow2 of US$7.1 million (H1 2021: negative US$19.8 million).
Total borrowings of US$76.73 million (31 December 2021 US$ 80.9 million).
Financial close achieved at Vametco's mini-grid project, enabling site clearance and progress with many project activities.
Group production was 4% higher relative to H1 2021, owing to Vametco's continued stable operational performance
Construction of the BELCO electrolyte plant is more than 80% complete and is expected to enter into operation in H1 2023

Outlook
Positive Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow expected to continue into the second half of 2022, which will be used to meet the remaining capital requirements and debt repayments. 
Group production run rate of 5,000 - 5,400mtVp.a. still expected to be achieved by the end of 2022.
Construction of the Electrolyte manufacturing facility (BELCO) is now 80% complete, production expected in H1 2023.
Continuing to target cost savings.
Since August, we have seen an improvement in the performance of Kiln 3, with production of 61mtV in July, increasing to 151 mtV in August.
Vametco's production guidance has been marginally increased to between 2,550 mtV and 2,650 mtV

Some NEGATIVES from H1 Interims 2022 (with comparison to H1 2021)

Cash balance of US$7.0 million at 30 June 2022 (US$15.4 million as at 31 December 2021)
Vanchem's production during the period was lower than anticipated due to lower recoveries associated with the Kiln 1 wind-down, electricity load shedding and a slower than planned ramp-up post Kiln 3 coming online

Outlook
Group 2022 production guidance adjusted downwards to between 3,900 mtV and 4,100

Loss after Tax is more difficult to place. Disappointing that there is a loss after tax but pleasing that it is much reduced compared to same period last year.
Loss after tax $3.2 million (2021 Loss after tax $19 million)

Why am I positive about the Interims? Of course here are some negatives, even in the outlook.
However for me there are far more positives, including in the outlook period, and that looks very encouraging with so many numbers moving in the right direction.

Other than facts quoted above opinions are just mine.

As for your love letter at 17.45 I really can’t respond until you get your facts right, but I am sure I told you this the other day. x

Hello dear. Still obsessed with me I see.

Don’t you think you should seek help x

Today Calamari confessed to have sold all of his / her shares at 12p or above. The share was last at 12p in April.

Therefore please note that for the last 5 months Calamari has not owned BMN shares … no skin in the game. You may like to consider this when reading the constant negativity. I do not trust or respect people that post negatively on shares they do not own.

I will be quite open that I do hold BMN shares, that I believe the company has been delivering and will continue to deliver on its target to build a large low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform, that I think the share is hugely oversold and has the potential to make significant gains from here, and that anything I write should be viewed in that context.

I do not ask anyone to buy shares based upon what opinions I express. Do your own research. Make up your own minds.

But be aware there are plenty here who would happily try to damage sentiment in the hope of a lower share price to buy back in.

There you have it.

Calamari I merely posted my view about holding here, just as you posted your view about not holding. We both exercised our right to do that. The comments balanced out and that should have been the end of it.

However you then made it personal, referring to me by name and making a completely unnecessary comment. I decided to put your hypocrisy back in its box.

You have only appeared today to stir up trouble on a bb where you are not invested and you do it by targeting other posters, including me. Poke the bear and expect to get bitten.

Now run along and play your games with someone else. I am rather bored with you.

Back on the filtered list with the other pests.

Mind you when someone has nothing better to do with their time on a Sunday pm than write negatives about a share they aren’t invested in or arguing with other posters invested in that share then I guess any form of silliness is possible.

Enjoy your Sunday … and do try to get out more

Or buy just because what I write!

Only a complete idiot would suggest people buy just because I buy, especially when a certain poster only a few minutes ago wrote that his posts have no impact on the share price.

Come on laddie. Make up your mind.

I consider myself fortunate to have a decent holding in this very oversold company. The share price in my opinion is ridiculously low but that has given folks the opportunity to acquire more very cheaply.

The production issues at Vametco were sorted out last year and once Vanchem kiln 3 is up to full production we should see a run rate of 5000+ mtV pa by year end, which in turn will reduce costs through economies of scale and therefore further improve margins.

The US$ / Rand exchange rate is working hugely in BMNs favour at present (revenue in US$ costs in Rand) as is the higher V price in the US, BMNs largest market.

Future looking pretty good.

I consider myself fortunate to have built quite a large holding here,acquired over a number of years. Recently I bought a few more at a price I didn’t think I would see again and may buy more if I have the funds.

I regard this share as grossly undervalued and see the potential for a significant rise from this point. Hopefully significant profit to be made from here.

I have not sold any. My average is low but anyone who has not sold any has not lost any money.

Interesting.

Costs in Rand
Revenue in US$

I have previously made it clear that my interest is in BMN achieving a sustainable and profitable business mining vanadium and producing vanadium products at Vametco and Vanchem. This is currently where most of their revenue comes from. I am pleased to see much progress in that direction outlined in the Interims.

Some are making a big thing about lack of contracts for electrolyte. Well BELCO won’t even be in operation until H1. Speculative development? Possibly. However I think it would be very naive to think that BMN were not at very least talking to potential customers. Fortune is not stupid. Did he at any point say there was no interest?

My guess is that contracts will be formalised as we get closer to commissioning and there is more certainty over delivery dates. But that is just my opinion.

Some POSITIVES from H1 Interims 2022

Revenue of US$76.2 million (H1 2021: US$47.0 million)
Adjusted EBITDA1 of US$15.6 million (H1 2021: Adjusted EBITDA loss of US$10.8 million)
Operating profit of US$6.1 million (H1 2021: loss of US$19.7 million).
Free cash flow2 of US$7.1 million (H1 2021: negative US$19.8 million).
Total borrowings of US$76.73 million (31 December 2021 US$ 80.9 million).
Financial close achieved at Vametco's mini-grid project, enabling site clearance and progress with many project activities.
Group production was 4% higher relative to H1 2021, owing to Vametco's continued stable operational performance
Construction of the BELCO electrolyte plant is more than 80% complete and is expected to enter into operation in H1 2023

Outlook
Positive Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow expected to continue into the second half of 2022, which will be used to meet the remaining capital requirements and debt repayments. 
Group production run rate of 5,000 - 5,400mtVp.a. still expected to be achieved by the end of 2022.
Construction of the Electrolyte manufacturing facility (BELCO) is now 80% complete, production expected in H1 2023.
Continuing to target cost savings.
Since August, we have seen an improvement in the performance of Kiln 3, with production of 61mtV in July, increasing to 151 mtV in August.
Vametco's production guidance has been marginally increased to between 2,550 mtV and 2,650 mtV

Some NEGATIVES from H1 Interims 2022 (with comparison to H1 2021)

Cash balance of US$7.0 million at 30 June 2022 (US$15.4 million as at 31 December 2021)
Vanchem's production during the period was lower than anticipated due to lower recoveries associated with the Kiln 1 wind-down, electricity load shedding and a slower than planned ramp-up post Kiln 3 coming online

Outlook
Group 2022 production guidance adjusted downwards to between 3,900 mtV and 4,100

Loss after Tax is more difficult to place. Disappointing that there is a loss after tax but pleasing that it is much reduced compared to same period last year.
Loss after tax $3.2 million (2021 Loss after tax $19 million)

Why am I positive about the Interims? Of course here are some negatives, even in the outlook.
However for me there are far more positives, including in the outlook period, and that looks very encouraging with so many numbers moving in the right direction.

Other than facts quoted above opinions are just mine.

If I see something I disagree with I will say so. You may not be able to deal with that but that is how it works.

On a serious note Alleycat it is time you demonstrated the ability to conduct proper research and stop posting misleading statements or lies about other posters.

1. 12000 odd posts about BMN. Liar. How far back through my posting history did you go? 30 days? I have been posting for nearly nine years. I used to have a wide portfolio of shares and regularly posted on many of them. BMN was just one of them but my largest investment. When I was diagnosed with cancer at the beginning of 2019 I took the decision to sell most of my remains share investments to simplify things for my estate. Because I was confident about the long term value of BMN and had some years earlier already de-risked that investment I have continued to hold. Happily I am not dead yet, contrary to what the medical staff expected, so I continue to hold and add where I can. As a general rule I try to avoid posting on chat boards where I am not invested, unlike you by your own admission. Therefore since that time I mostly only post about BMN.

On this point you have made yourself look rather stupid. Perhaps in future you might try to make intelligent comments about BMN instead of picking on other posters when you are clearly so poorly informed.

2. You so arrogantly set yourself up as judge of other folks investment strategies. How dare you. What I do with my money is absolutely nothing to do with you. Keep your nose out of my business. I don’t question you sitting on the fence about investing in BMN. That is your decision. I don’t even raise questions about the motivation of someone who hasn’t yet bought in trying to discredit one of the most positive shareholder posters. I will leave that for others to judge.
3. Suggesting I am a paid employee of the company. Good grief another pathetic attempt to discredit me. What is wrong with you? All I can say is that if I am employed by BMN then someone forgot to tell both FM and myself, and therefore he must owe me 9 years back pay, but I will be more than happy to take it in BMN shares, especially at this price.
4. To some extent you are correct that I am largely positive about BMN, the reason being they are running the business to deliver on their target of vertical integration. They are constantly moving forward and trying to reduce costs despite very difficult global issues. However you wrong in that I frequently have criticised PR, which is certainly not up to the standard I would expect of this company. I also voiced my criticism of the reliance on quarterly updates when they introduced the system. And like everyone I am not happy with the share price.
5. “…no criticism of the company whatsoever allowed by any others in your kangaroo court….” What rubbish. I have news for you. This is a public forum. No one stops me posting my views and I don’t stop others posting theirs. However the moment I post here anyone is free to respond and to agree, disagree, etc. and it is my right for the same. If I see something I disagree with I

Hippy when the above does materialise I expect you to congratulate the BoD and apologise for being such a negative poster.

Alleycat the truth is you are in love with me. Never had a stalker before and it really is quite strange. However I should tell you that I am happily married. I do appreciate your emotional attachment to me but I suggest you go out and get a life. It will be hard at first but time heals everything.

Love Pdub.

Hxul if your 18.20 comment is referring to me then let me be quite clear. The only person thinking ‘get out of jail free’ card with reference to inventory is you.

I agree with the reasons given by others for the need for inventory to be maintained.

However in the context of debt repayment what is a fact is that the inventory represents a significant asset with a value. The 826 mtV at end H1 which I chose to illustrate with a conservative V price of $35 kgV is worth over $28 million. If achieved V prices are higher then value increases. Therefore reducing inventory is one option the company may wish to consider in order to contribute towards debt repayment. How much that would be possible or desirable only BMN can answer.

However the company have clearly stated the options they are considering, some of which I referred to in my post, and they made it clear in the RNS that the list was not exclusive to other possibilities.

2023 has the potential to be a very profitable year (my opinion based upon information in RNSs and other sources) and that could greatly assist debt reduction, but that combined with the other measures under consideration by the BoD indicate how the debt obligations will be met.

In order to avoid confusion I need to clarify the last paragraph of my 14.50 post with the following amended comment:

“ Any debt not settled in November 2023 likely to be refinanced unless of course so over 17 p!”