RE: Encouraging production numbers26 Sep 2022 16:22
Apologies critical maths error in para 4. Correct version (Even better!)
Just looking back at Vanchem production in Q1 RNS and Q2 H1 RNS interesting that the totals were 224 mtV and 191 mtV respectively. Immediately we can see the impact of shutting down Kiln 1 and the slower ramp up of Kiln 3 than expected.
The Interims RNS gave some interesting post period numbers for Vanchem. The numbers for July and August are 61 mtV and 151 mtV respectively. That’s a total of 212 mtV in just the first two months. That is significantly higher than the full three months of Q2 and only 12 mtV less than the full three months of Q1. And we still have September total to add. Given this statement in the RNS I would expect September to be even higher than August:
“… supported by improved operational stability at Vanchem which has continued into the month of September, …”
That will almost certainly result in a much higher total for both Q3 (perhaps approaching 400 mtV) and Q4 (500 mtV to 600 mtV?) than the previous Q production levels of Kiln 1 pre 2022 which were around 270mtV.
More good news deriving from these increased production levels is the reduction in costs associated with economies of scale. And remember some of the Vanchem products attract premium prices.
Then there was this good news:
“… Vametco continues to demonstrate solid and consistent production levels…. “
This is exactly what all the hard work and investment at Vametco in 2021 was designed to do and has resulted in an INCREASE in the production target.
Again from the RNS this prompted what we know to be a very conservative BoD to write:
“…. We are confident both plants will reach a combined annualised run rate of 5,000-5,400mtV by year end…. “
That is why I defend the BoD and say that they are continuing to deliver.
Obviously nothing is certain in the Vanadium market or for that matter on AIM, but if this progress is maintained and V prices remain high in at least their main markets then BMN should have an even better H2 compared to H1 and the prospects for 2023 look very exciting, particularly with electrolyte plant coming online in H1.
The current share price looks very cheap to me but that is just my opinion. Everything I have written either quotes information released by the company or uses that to draw conclusions.
Not ramping. Just trying to make sense of facts.
As always just my opinion. It hardly needs saying but for the benefit of the trolls don’t take my word for it …. Read the RNSs … properly! Draw your own conclusions.
The BMN story is a complex one but worth understanding.
I am not yet factoring in BE. If and when that comes good then lots of icing on an already large cake.