Member Info for Pdub

Agreed Endion. However I think BMN / Chika have missed the point here.

AIM is driven by sentiment which in turn is influenced by many things, including old crocks like me singing the praises of this great company. One of the most important drivers of sentiment is the RNS system. It draws attention to the company and has a very wide audience of investors. Witnes the impact of the recent RNS on sp.

Other than committed Bushies how many people have read about the BE grant from US? This most definitely should have been an RNS and I was disappointed with the response from Chika. If they are going to mention minor industrial action at plant they most certainly should have released this positive info via RNS because the long term it is likely to be far more important to BE and therefore BMN and its shareholders.

Just my opinion and of course does nothing to shake my confidence in the future of the company and the sp. Just a little frustrating that PR could so easily be improved.

Regards. Pdub.

Warren Buffet I believe had 87th birthday recently.

I gather he made the odd pound or two on shares?

I believe he knows more about investing than I will ever do.

In a nutshell he seems to suggest that one should pick a good one and stay with it. If that is good enough for him then certainly good enough for me.

I picked BMN.

BMN is a good one.

I'm staying with it.

Transfer of wealth from impatient to the patient? Suits we. Very patient. And getting wealthier by the year.

Regards .pdub.

That would be nice Gambit (understatement of year?)

Bit of optimistic speculation.

Let's imagine Vanadium at $139 kgV, costs at $30 kgV and production at 935 mtV per Quarter.

Quarter Ebitda (just for Vametco) would be $105,000 x 935 = $98,175,000

Annual Ebitda $392 million.

BMN share $392 million x .59 = $232 million = £178 million at today's exchange rate. (£14.8 million per month!!!!)

Ok just dreaming. Or am I?

Think I will hold onto these shares ....

Apologies an omission in one paragraph. To clarify:

"If as ARC have speculated the annual target production rate of 3750 mtV is achieved by end 2018 then we might expect Q1 2019 production to be approaching 935 mtV!!!"

Just a final point from me on Vametco production numbers.

In Q1 2018 Vametco actually produced 731 mtV. Remember this was before Phase 2 upgrade was completed.

Towards the end of Q2 the Phase 2 upgrade was completed (on time and on budget) raising the annual target production rate to 3750 mtV.

However Q2 production was lower than expected at 629 mtV. Reasons given were: "The production decrease was due to (a) planned kiln maintenance programme, (b) the installation and commissioning of the mill and crusher as part of Phase Two of the expansion, and (c) work stoppages as a result of unprotected industrial action."

The reasons stated for the lower than expected Q2 production should all now be history and I see no reason for them to impair production in Q3 onwards. The new production target for 2018 (2850 to 3000 mtV) requires 1490 mtV to be produced in H2 to achieve the lower end of target.

Now I really cannot see the problem here. As I have stated Vametco produced 731 mtV in Q1 and that was BEFORE the Phase 2 upgrade, which raised the annual production rate target by 23.6%. Assuming no further significant interruptions to production in H2, then a gradual ramping up of production towards the annual target rate of 3750 mtV should see the required average of 745 mtV in Q3 and Q4 to achieve revised actual production target of 2850 mtV easily achieved and most likely exceeded!

If as ARC have speculated the annual target production rate of 3750 mtV is achieved by end 2018 then we might expect Q1 production to be approaching 935 mtV!!!

Whatever the final production figure for 2018 let us not forget that thanks to a strong and sustained rise in the price of Vanadium every ton produced is making a huge profit for Vametco. And BMN owns 59% of Vametco.

If BMN acquire Sojitz 15% of Vametco, as many of us suspect is being negotiated, then I wonder how the market will react to that?

Vametco Ebitda for Q2 2018 was $26.32 million, an increase of 66.8% on Q1 !!! In my opinion Q3 Ebitda looks set to show another significant increase due to already known higher Vanadium price and a likely increase in tons produced.

Vametco - a cash cow or cash elephant? You choose.

Regards. Pdub.

Hi Nihilfit. Not sure if I have understood your post correctly but one needs to distinguish between target production figures for 2018 (from RNS 2850 and 3000mtV) and the target annual production rate (from RNS 3750 mtV)

From Q2 Update:

"Phase Two of the Vametco expansion project, comprising the commissioning of the third primary mill and secondary crusher, was successfully completed within budget and on time. This phase of the expansion project increases annualised production capacity to 3,750 mtV, from 3,035 mtV achieved in Phase One, which was completed in Q3 2017. We expect to see gradual increases in output over the course of H2 2018 as the operation ramps-up to the 3,750 mtV rate."

Note gradual increase in production in H2 towards 3750 mtV pa. In my 15.12 post I stated the following:

"In my opinion it is likely that Ebitda will continue to rise through Q3 and Q4, driven by Vanadium prices significantly higher than Q2 and a gradual ramping up of production towards an annual rate of 3750 mtV pa."

I did not state or imply that actual production would be anything other than the projected target of 2850 to 3000 mtV. If the achieved figure is say near the middle of that range at 2900 mtV then H2 production would be higher than H1 (H1 1360 v H2 1540 mtV) by 13.3%. That is good news by itself. Combine that with what we know will be higher Vanadium prices in Q3 then Ebitda should continue to rise. Whether they achieve an annual rate of 3750 mtV by end 2018 no one posting here can be sure. Let's hope so.

This is what ARC wrote on 22 Aug:

Multi-phased expansion progressing: The Phase Two expansion was completed on time (June 2018) and on budget (US$2.5m capex) and should see output reach an annualised rate of 3,750t during H2 2018.

SP Angel have taken a slightly more cautious approach, but have not ruled out achieving the 3750 mtV annual rate by start of 2019:

"The delay in the ramp up to Phase 2 production levels sadly reduces our sales forecast and estimated profits for the year and we are considering if there might need to be any changes to our forecast of 3,750t for 2019 and 5,000tpa thereafter.

Hope that helps. Regards. Pdub.

JonesyUK a question.

Is there a reason why you left out down time of production due to upgrading production facilities in order to increase production long term? It seems to me that this is an important factor that was mentioned in the RNS but not in your post.

Also what are you implying by the term "alleged strike action"? Forgive me but that suggests to me that you are implying the company is lying about the strike action (albeit not a particularly significant factor). Please clarify.

Pboo this is a public forum. As long as you stay within LSE rules it is up to you when and what you post. Others can make use of your photos or not, as they wish. I appreciate your sharing and I am not concerned with your motive.

The arguments over this are just plain childish. Grow up everyone please.

Regards. Pdub.

Apologies for being so positive about BMN but every time I think about the progress made by the company and the growth in M/C and sp I just can't help it!

Regards. Pdub.

Sentiment here should be rock solid and improving given the Q on Q increases in Ebitda since BMN first took a stake in Vametco (start of Q2 2017) and then a 59% controlling interest (end Q4 2017). In my opinion the growth in Ebitda is excellent, but make up your own mind by studying the numbers below.

Vametco Q update numbers (Date - , mtV prod, mtV sold, Ave. price V, Ebitda, ebitda % increase)

Q1 2017 (calc. From Q2) - (646, 644, $25, $2.41 million) (pre BMN)
Q2 2017 (calc. from Q3) - (795, 697, $27 kgV, $4.06 million, + 68.5%)
Q3 20 Nov 2017 - 669, 744, $39.4 kgV, $6.93 million, + 70.7%
Q4 22 Jan 2018 - 539, 636, $39.1, $9.26 million, + 33.6%
Q1 27 April 2018 - 731, 690, $61.8, $15.78 million, + 70.4%
Q2 Aug 2018? - 629, 713, $69.2, $26.32 million, + 66.8%

The Ebitda % increase figure is based upon the increase from the previous Q. I think most AIM CEO 's can only dream of such large increases for 5 successive Qs.

In my opinion it is likely that Ebitda will continue to rise through Q3 and Q4, driven by Vanadium prices significantly higher than Q2 and a gradual ramping up of production towards an annual rate of 3750 mtV pa.

Apologies if there are any small mathematical errors. Happy to be corrected.

Sources of info are the RNS Q updates, using the stated dollar rand rates. Some figures for 2017 Q1 and Q2 had to be calculated from info in later RNSs

Remember in 4 of the last 5 Qs Ebitda has increased by 65 - 70% each time if my maths is correct. Not bad! Even at 59% ownership BMN share looking rather good!

Since 09.25 today (haven't access to earlier trades) that's about 2.5 million sold in round number trades of 50,000 or more. Who knows what others may appear as delayed trades. Interesting.

All things considered the sp was reasonably robust.

Daisydog I fully understand that. We all get tested at times. Hang on in. In my opinion lots more goodies to come.

Regards. Pdub.

Gosh Daisydog. Chill out. You'll have a stroke.

Haha sorry but that was just too good to miss.

Seriously I don't worry about the day to day sp. bound to go up and down. However the fundamentals are getting stronger and over time I believe this sp will be a lot higher than today.

Regards. Pdub.

HL gone back to NT again, even for £80. Another rise to come?

Haha. Good news Nick!!

Henry rides again?

Why the negativity? Let me remind folks of very positive Ebitda numbers.

Vametco Q update numbers (Date - , mtV prod, mtV sold, Ave. price V, Ebitda, ebitda % increase)

Q1 2017 (calc. From Q2) - (646, 644, $25, $2.41 million) (pre BMN)
Q2 2017 (calc. from Q3) - (795, 697, $27 kgV, $4.06 million, + 68.5%)
Q3 20 Nov 2017 - 669, 744, $39.4 kgV, $6.93 million, + 70.7%
Q4 22 Jan 2018 - 539, 636, $39.1, $9.26 million, + 33.6%
Q1 27 April 2018 - 731, 690, $61.8, $15.78 million, + 70.4%
Q2 Aug 2018? - 629, 713, $69.2, $26.32 million, + 66.8%

The Ebitda % increase figure is based upon the increase from the previous Q. I think most AIM CEO 's can only dream of such large increases for 5 successive Qs.

In my opinion it is likely that Ebitda will continue to rise through Q3 and Q4, driven by Vanadium prices significantly higher than Q2 and a gradual ramping up of production towards an annual rate of 3750 mtV pa.

Apologies if there are any small mathematical errors. Happy to be corrected.

Sources of info are the RNS Q updates, using the stated dollar rand rates. Some figures for Q1 and Q2 and to be calculated from info in later RNSs

Remember in 4 of the last 5 Qs Ebitda has increased by 65 - 70% each time if my maths is correct. Not bad! Even at 59% ownership BMN share looking rather good!

RichKen I couldn't agree more.

One of the reasons I am reluctant to post. It is not pleasant having personal abuse directed at you on a public forum, and it is unnecessary.

My own opinion is that if people can't have a debate without being abusive I am not interested in what they have to say.

Well done MR and anyone else who pursued a similar course of action.

Regards. Pdub

Kind words RichKen. Thank you.

Not sure how much I want to participate at present for a variety of reasons, not least of which is the amount of bb space being given to responses to the trolls. I will monitor how things go.

Filter button works great for me.

Regards. Pdub.