Member Info for Pdub

Sorry correction to first SP Angel target should read "... 30 November 2017 ...". Not 2018

Food for thought on broker targets for BMN sp in 2018 !

SP Angel

Target raised from 11.00 p to 14.3p on 30 November 2018, and achieved as closing price at the end of March 2018, some 4 months later.

Target raised from 14.00p to 18.28p on 23 Jan 2018, and achieved as closing price in mid April 2018, nearly 3 months later.

24.94p target set 27 April 2018 and achieved as closing price on 30 July 2018, some 3 months later.

ARC

ARC set initial target of 14.00p on 01 March 2018, and achieved as closing price on 29 March 2018, just 1 month later.

ARC. Raised target from 14.00p to 19.80p on 10 April, and achieved on 26 April 2018, just 2weeks later.

ARC on 29 June 2018 issued a note in which they confirm buy rating but I cannot find a revised sp target. Unless others can correct I assume the current ARC target stands at 19.80p.

Conclusions

My conclusion is that SP Angel have been remarkably consistent at presenting an achievable target that in 2018 each time has taken 3 to 4 months to reach. ARC on the other hand seem to present very short term targets taking between 2 to 4 weeks to achieve, and their latest target most certainly needs upgrading!!!!!

All data taken from links on TBP and HL chart page for BMN. All opinions are my own.

"... confused by ..."

Well I must confess to being confused but today's sp movements.

In first part of morning we saw a healthy rise to 28.11 / 28.40p by about 11 am. The Broker Note and SP Tergat was released at 11.10 and in fairness to others here it does appear to have stimulated continuous buying with very few sells, and including a very large buy at 11.15. Yet the sp was continuously walked down.

Pleased to see that trend has apparently reversed and sp rising again, HL now quoting 28.00 / 28.2p.

I very much agree with your summary quote MadasaHat!!!

Interesting that since 11.28 there has been continuous buying amounting to somewhere in the region of 380,000 shares yet the real bid has been steadily walked down from 28.4 to 28.12p.

There are two trades at 12.03 of 100,000 and 50,000 at mid price so not sure if these are sells or buys. They are not included in the above. Even allowing for a sell of 100,000 at 11.22 there seems to be a mismatch between buying pressure and the falling Ask. Must assume one or more delayed trades?

Real sp 28.02 / 28.12p on HL

Pigpen that is my thinking too.

MadasaHat it was really a tongue in cheek challenge to illustrate the difficulties of setting public targets to which one can be held accountable.

Perhaps I am unique amongst investors in that I have never taken any notice of broker targets when buying shares. In fact I took no notice of the BMN sp targets until JM became the issue. Nothing I have experienced in my investing years has convinced me that broker targets tend to be anything but unreliable. That remains my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Knuttie I am happy to give you credit for that.

Regards. Pdub.

MadasaHat just out of interest if the broker note drives the sp what rise are you expecting today to prove your point, over and above the 3% rise prior to the note coming out?

Your target would be a useful measure to test your theory.

Regards. Pdub.

Messy post sorry. But I think the meaning is clear.

Haha knuttie. Over and again JM over the last year or so JM has acknowledged that their targets may be exceeded, and significantly. He continues to be conservative with his forecasts because that is how they seem to operate.

I have nothing more to add.

Apologies for autocorrect "MadasaHat"

Madrasah at I think that may be stretching things too far. If we close up today that would be the 10 th blue day out of the last 13. This rising trend pre-dates the broker note. You may have things upside down as the broker note may have been triggered by the rise, and of course the sustained high Vanadium prices which lets face it are driving everything at present.

Regards. Pdub.

I am surprised, and pleased, that SP Angel have upgraded their target before figures are released.

Interesting that they offer 3 scenarios (and I am sure others here could offer more) which illustrates the problem that I believe any broker would have with a company and a share performing as well as BMN, particularly those that are conservative in their approach.

"In valuation terms, we are raising our target price to 33.6p. This may well prove to be a base case for Bushveld’s share of the Vametco cash flow with potential for a significantly higher valuation if ferro-vanadium prices can find a higher long-term base."

So clear acknowledgement that the sp may go "significantly higher" if Vanadium prices remain high. It's there. In black and white!

HL now quoting 28.35p to buy £80

Can't buy any on HL

Headancer I don't think much ramping goes on here. I can only speak for myself but I only post what I believe to be the case. There are many very good reasons why my posts are so positive. That I hope does not need explaining. My own target is 75p to £1.50, but with so many variables I cannot narrow that down or put a time limit on it. However my target may appear to be very conservative if BMN continue to deliver on their plans.

In terms of valuation there are far better analysts than I that post here, but surely you should be attempting your own valuation.

Every day that passes is one day nearer to:

Vametco Q2 update and production numbers
H1 interims
Mokopane mining licence
Brits Mining licence
News on possible acquisition of Sojitz 15% of Vametco?
Completion of commissioning of Eskom VRFB and feedback on numbers.
Completion of Electrolyte plants
Completion of Phase 3 of Vametco expansion to 5000 + mtV pa
First VRFB sales?
2018 Financial Report
Brown field site?
Developments at Lemur

Etc etc etc

WOW !

Great to read posts this evening from new or less frequent contributors. Stops the bb being cluttered with posts from people like me! Hope we see more joining in.

Regards. Pdub.