Member Info for Pdub

SoulDoubt sometimes I let people off lightly.

1onic what nonsense you talk.

If you have 15 years under your belt you must be kicking yourself for not spotting this at 1.5p 2p 8p 14p etc

Where were you. We were shouting it loud enough.

You join the bb parading your expertise yet clearly you failed to recognise a great investment. If you are so clever why did you miss it?

not too late. Long way for this sp to go.

Just my opinion.

SoulDoubt I dare say you are a very experienced and highly skilled trader (though in that case why on earth you are trolling AIM shares I have no idea). However, many trolls said exactly what you have said throughout 2018 (I know, quite a shock for you to find out that your negativity and reliance on standard generalisations is not original).

Strange then that the sp did exactly what the equally experienced, skilled and well researched LTHs here said it would do, ie rise significantly. In fact from 8.5p to 38.75p, making it one if the best performing shares on AIM and giving a great return for its shareholders.

If you had bothered to do some proper research on this share you would understand that the company is making large profits from Vametco, profits that are likely to increase as production increases and as the expected vanadium shortage pushes the price back up during 2019. Then the energy storage side .... well of course you can find all this out for yourself.

So thank you for your advice but you really have nothing of interest to say to me.

Come back when better researched.

Just my opinion.

Rob I can assure you that like many LTHs I have had my share of being underwater with BMN. In fact from early 2014 to early 2017 and at one point over 60% down. I think I paid my dues!

The point is I invested in a company with great resources and a talented management team so I was not too worried about "short term" sp, and in the end the company delivered .... big time. I always remained positive, as those who read my posts throughout that time can testify.

So why don't I take out my large % profit? Because I believe the company is only just getting going and don't want to miss out on significant future profits. Just a question of patience.

Just my opinion of course.

Enjoy the weekend.

Regards. Pdub.

Adam I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Short answer ... NO.

Those that are familiar with my posting here over the last 5+ years will know that I always try to give honest answers. I make mistakes like everyone else, but I don't lie. So ... No.

Apologies. Correction: "... continued shortage..."

Also worth remembering that:

2018
Start 8.50p still 8.50p on 12 March
End 38.75p (increase of 356%)

Plenty of time in 2019 to enjoy (or witness if not invested haha) the significant share price rise that many anticipate. Just as we anticipated the rises in 2017 and 2018 and were proven correct.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

The various theories about the short term share price movement (or guesses as I like to call them) are of little interest to me. I prefer to focus on the company's plans and their delivery of them. Whilst production figures have been a little disappointing in view of the expansion plans, at least the reasons have been shared. I am pleased that the company is being very pro-active in resolved those issues and look forward to seeing improved figures in future.

In the meantime I celebrate the fact that Ebitda for Vametco was $39.6 million for Q4. Vanadium market dynamics point to a continued seaport age of the metal and most analysts that I have read expect a recovery in vanadium prices. Therefore I expect each of the quarters in 2019 to return similar or higher Ebitda to Q4 2018, even if the production numbers don't increase at all! If production figures do increase then profits at the plant should be higher than I anticipate.

That of course ignores any developments in the following areas:

Dividend policy (!!!!)
JSE listing
Brits mining licence
Mokopane mining licence
Electrolyte production
Eskom VRFB numbers etc
Brownfield acquisition
Greenfield developments
Vametco resource update
Brits resource update

I am sure there are some things I have omitted but it should indicate just how exciting 2019 is looking for BMN and its shareholders (at least those with the patience to hold onto their shares!). Certainly can't promise to match the 350% ish rises of each of the last two years, but only a poorly researched cynic would rule it out!

So if folks wish to keep discussing the daily sp that is fine with me. I prefer to look a little further ahead to recognise the true potential if this company.

Just my opinion of course.

Regards. Pdub.

Market makers.

Thanks Alfa. Big smile.

Regards. Pdub.

(Part 2)

In other words, and just as one might expect from a good management team, they have taken steps to identify the issues, plan corrective actions and implement. None of us can surely ask for more. Yet some continue to focus on missed targets without sufficiently recognising what management are doing achieve greater efficiency at the plant.

Even the other two disruptive factors (industrial action and mineral grade) are being addressed through:

"The Company continues to build on the ongoing, cooperative relationship with all stakeholders, particularly our workforce and local communities. An employee share participation scheme will be implemented at Vametco in Q1 2019 which will more closely align Vametco's workforce to its operational targets."

And:

"The deposit hosts exciting potential and our drilling programmes at Vametco and Brits have been carefully designed to ensure that we extract the wealth of the minerals in our portfolio and extract them in the most cost efficient, sustainable way."

Unexpected events happen. I am pleased (but not surprised) that the BMN management are tackling this head on.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

I don't challenge the disappointing production numbers for 2018. However the actual numbers are now OLD NEWS. In the Q4 update the latest target was indeed missed, but only by 40 mtV due to an unforeseen maintenance issue.

That same update contained great news on Ebitda, figures that most AIM companies will only ever dream of, yet we still discuss the negative aspects. Ok I understand those that claim this is necessary for balance, including some of the most respected posters, but in my opinion equal attention should be placed on what the company is doing about it. That is a much better measure of the quality of the management team and therefore future potential of profits and share price.

So let's revisit the RNS:

"In October 2018 the Company, with the assistance of an independent external consultant, initiated a detailed diagnostic review of the Vametco plant performance. Following the completion of the review in December 2018, the Company commenced an operational Transformation Programme to enhance Vametco's performance.
The Company has commenced the implementation of the Transformation Programme and expects production levels in the current year to be higher than 2018. Guidance for 2019 will be provided in the Q1 2019 operational update once all aspects of this programme have been scheduled."

Fortune should be commended for calling in a consultant to analyse the problems. Note that process is complete and the company have already commenced the programme. They are also being cautious about targets for 2019.

And again:

"... we are mindful of the imperative to drive Vametco towards operational excellence and realise its true potential. The transformation programme we have initiated at Vametco is designed to do just that and we are confident to see an improved production performance during 2019."

Details of the action plan:

"The diagnostic review highlighted that no additional capital expenditure is required to achieve a sustainable production of c.3,400 mtV, which represents 90 per cent of the name plate capacity. In order to achieve the production target management will be primarily focused on, among others:
- Increasing vanadium grade in crushed ore through improved mine scheduling which will result in an increased exposure to ore of higher vanadium content and magnetite;

- Increasing vanadium grade in kiln feed through improved silica liberation;

- Increasing kiln availability through improved engineering practices and production throughput; and

- Sustainably increasing the kiln feed rate.

Phase 3 of the multi-phase project

- The diagnostic assessment highlighted that additional targeted investment is required for the kiln, the leach and crushing circuits to reach Phase 3 capacity. The Company continues to explore several improvement initiatives to further increase production capacity to 5,000 mtV."

How do you know Alfa is wrong 1onic?

Your conclusion does not tally with the considerable database that Alfa has collected and openly presented. Perhaps you could present contrary evidence to support your statement?

Good to know Alfa. I look forward to that.

Bye for now.

Regards. Pdub.

Oh for goodness sake! Production issues were already known about since at least November. The revised target 2600 mtV known since November. It was missed by a mere 40 mtV due to another maintenance issue. Why are people still bringing this up as a negative?

The RNS clearly stated that action is being taken to rectify and outlined what that was. BMN are doing the right things so please stop being so damned negative!!!! There is not much more BMN management can do. At least give them a chance to correct before condemning.

Now I have a very important hospital appointment this morning the outcome of which will require me to be very positive. Perhaps Daisan Expert et al you would do me the honour of giving me something positive to read about this great company when I come home?

2019 got off to a dodgy start for me. I think it will just get better and better from here for both myself and BMN.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Here is what John Meyer, Mining Analyst and Partner at SP Angel, had to say on this very topic on 24 Oct 2018:

"You can use a bit of niobium in substitution but there isn't much niobium in the world either, and there's one big mine in Brazil that supplies about 80% of the world's niobium. I don't know if that can really ramp up a lot more from where it is. There aren't many other sources of that metal and we think it's quite difficult to substitute vanadium for niobium and only certain steel producers will be able to do it and there'll only be able to do it at certain prices and now the niobium price has spiked it's unlikely to be much of a threat to vanadium and we're struggling to see where additional supplies of vanadium are going to come from."

Hope that helps.

Regards. Pdub.

Wassatt despite my own battle with cancer I wear a very happy face. Why? Well nothing to do with teasers from the TECA bb that's for sure.

I picked the CEO out as a winner more than 5 years ago, invested and held. That is why I have a "happy face". And looking at the future with BMN I guess my smile will just get bigger and bigger.

Just a question of finding the right company and sticking with it. I guess most traders don't understand that philosophy but it certainly works for me.

2019 looking very exciting.

All just my opinion of course.

There are many things in this world that are worth getting angry and / or complaining about. .... racism, poverty, lack of world peace, politicians that lie to us, cancer (!!), etc.

Getting two RNSs from BMN in one day definitely does not go on that list! All the more ironic considering the paucity of news releases in the last couple of months or so. Let's hope it is the start of an avalanche of news.

Regards. Pdub.

Nick can we assume the following groups were not just on holiday at Bushveld?

"... of 2,560 tons of vanadium for the year at a production cost of nearly $20/kg and a realised price of $81/kg, the business is attracting a lot of interest, with nearly 30 analysts and bankers from SA and the UK visiting the site last week... "

Perhaps some of those bankers may wish to lend us the odd £ / $ if needed?

Agreed Nick. I guess that's the benefit of producing so much cash ...

The company is debt free but has access to debt funding if needed.

Another reason why Bushveld stands out from the majority of AIM companies. No more dilution to keep the lights on and now access to debt funding for major projects if required. Excellent news.

Regards. Pdub.