Member Info for Pdub

Looks like a tag team at work. Quite funny really

I guess it works!! Thank you admin.

And as for group concensus nonsense. Baloney!

There are many very strong minded individuals on this bb who are very capable of analysing evidence and drawing conclusions. If folks have similar views then quite simply it is because that is what the evidence points to.

faramog they only missed the target by 40 mtV and gave the very specific reason for it. No one is claiming that expansion plans have gone smoothly but we new that at Q3 update. It is old news and in my opinion too much us being made of it.

The company have said what steps they are taking to improve things. I am not quite sure why there us so much focus on this old news and not enough on the huge positive that the plant achieved Ebitda in Q4 of $39.4 million. As a shareholder of course I would like more tons of vanadium produced, and I am sure it will be, but I am far more interested in how much profit the plant is making.

That target of 2600 to 2650 mtV was published I believe on 09 November 2018, less than half way through Q4. I find it inconceivable that Fortune would have given that target AFTER the unplanned maintenance and repair, yet not refer to it as a cause of lower expectations for Q4.

The logical conclusion has to be that the lost production was due to an unforeseen maintenance shutdown between 09 November and end of December. Anyone seeking to admonish Fortune under such circumstances is being a little unfair in my opinion.

Remember Vametco is still highly profitable!

Regards. Pdub.

AM that is my guilty secret too. Find a great little company. Buy, hold and enjoy its growth story. Oh and of course smile as the sp rises too!

Regards. Pdub.

Ophidian I think you are spot on. I would also like to see a separate production site elsewhere.

Regards. Pdub.

SOTRR totally agree with your 11.21 post.

I am constantly surprised at how quickly some posters turn negative at the slightest bit of news that doesn't meet their expectation!

We are still one of three primary producers of vanadium outside China. We own a very profitable plant that generated $39.6 million Ebitda in Q4 alone! All the indications are that the vanadium shortage will continue into 2019 and 2020, and the deficit is likely to increase with Chinese rebar enforcement and VRFB demand growth alone. I believe it to be not unreasonable for vanadium price average for 2019 to exceed the the Q4 average. Vametco profitability in 2019 should significantly exceed 2018, even without ANY increase to production.

The company have stated what they are doing to increase efficiency and performance at the factory and looks like they are targeting higher grade deposits at the mine. Phase 2 expansion programme already in place. Do please tell me what else people think they should be doing! We now have to give these things a chance to work and hopefully raise production (not attempting a figure as from my position that is guess work) leading to even greater profit in 2019.

Then we have other strands to pursue such as dividend policy, JSE listing, Brits and Mokopane licences, greenfield site, brownfield acquisition, electrolyte production, VRFB developments, coal to power project.

Yeah ... all sounds really negative... NOT !!

Strikes and unexpected maintenance closures have been an issue, but this stuff happens. Doesn't mean 37 days will be lost in 2019.

Remember one of the investment incentives with BMN lies in the company's plans for vertical integration (a great hedge against fluctuating V prices) and moves towards diversifying revenue streams.

I have seen these 'mood swings' with BMN shareholders before, but in the end it always seems to return to positive sentiment. Same again I expect.

The path forward was always going to have challenges but the management team have done a remarkable job getting us to this point and I think they deserve our support.

I don't mind balanced debate but in my opinion out and out negativity about one of the best performing shares on AIM is outrageous!

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Sorry for yet another O/T but I must thank those of you for the many message of support but in particular for the anecdotes about either you own experience or those of friends or family with cancer. I have taken on board all of those comments and under any other circumstances I would reply individually. However I have already occupied too much space on the LSE bb so please accept a collective thank you as I am still very new to this health issue and learning every day. You have greatly helped me as trying to avoid Internet search ... usually disastrously frightening!

If I may pick out one a special thank you to SH4B. So pleased to hear that your wife has fully recovered and the information you provided has certainly helped me to strengthen my resolve to win this battle. That is a quite amazing story and so relevant to my own fears and uncertainties.

Kind regards. Pdub

Interesting article from Sept 2018 in three parts (links towards end of part 1). Very balanced view on VRFBs and recognises price challenges. However also makes reference to advancing technology improving efficiency and cost. I think this quote from part 3 is very important:

"For companies without their own vanadium assets like StorEn, becoming vertically integrated with a reliable producer is key."

Well an even better solution is a single low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform ... BMN !!! Clearly demonstrates Fortune's vision and in my opinion places BMN in a strong position with regard to developing VRFBs. Something that many of us have been saying for years and others steadfastly refused to believe!

https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/battery-metals-investing/vanadium-investing/vanadium-energy-storage-solution-future/

All looking very exciting.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

From CEO Christmas message on energy storage:

"In 2019, we will continue advancing our strategy of building a leading energy storage company through Bushveld Energy as we progress the construction of the electrolyte manufacturing plant in South Africa, the deployment of a VRFB at Eskom, the development of vanadium electrolyte leasing products, and securing large scale mandates for VRFB deployments. Bushveld Energy is the focus of our downstream vertical integration into the stationary energy storage market, which is important not only for its proposition of diversifying and growing vanadium demand but also for its outright commercial attractiveness."

Fortune seems very positive about this side of the business. Of course there will always be sceptics, much like when our sp was at 1.5p or less and one opinion was that those investing in BMN were idiots! Look at the sp today, a little more than 2 years later! The VRFB industry is in its infancy and it is not surprising that some question its viability. Not that long ago electric vehicles were just as far off the mainstream radar, and look how fast that is changing.

BMN CEO Fortune Mojapelo is one of those with the vision to see how VRFBs can have a significant part to play in future energy storage, and is driving forward his plan for BMN to become a low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform. This appears to give a degree of flexibility in considering the most appropriate financing model for VRFB customers and places shareholders in a win win situation whatever happens to the vanadium price.

Hopefully news soon on the commissioning of Eskom's first VRFB. An exciting year to come!

Just my opinion. DYOR.

Regards. Pdub.

Once again my heart felt gratitude for all the messages of support. I have read every post and am very moved by the concern shown by you all for someone that most have never met. Thank you!

Last 8 days between diagnosis and confirmation that it had not spread have been very difficult but remained positive for most of that time. Did lose it a bit on Tuesday but support of friends and family brought me back. I needed that reminder that negativity can be wholly destructive. In the end the result is as good as I had any right to hope for.

Expect me in future to be every bit a pain in the a*se for those who spread negativity on this bb, only now with even more conviction of the importance of positive thinking!

Kind regards. Pdub.

Just a quick update.

Doc says cancer limited to liver. It is a rare type. Expecting to remove half the liver. May not need chemo but to be decided. Expecting fairly long period of recovery over months but prospect of full normal life beyond, which is a relief.

Southampton hospital regarded as one of top liver centres in Europe. Looks like I am going to be in very good hands.

Although this is going to be major surgery (some time next 2 - 4 weeks) the scenario could have been much worse so I am feeling very positive.

Regards. Pdub.

I-H lecturing everyone again. Very entertaining.

Even our old friend Bolgas giving expert opinion. Great stuff.

Ebitda up nearly 300% on Q3. We are constantly told by the doomongers that it is about revenue and profit. I agree. And BMN gphas bags of it. So they move on to some other excuse for negativity. Excellent.

Correction: Q4 Ebitda $39.6 million. Apologies.

Daisan that is too negative. The target was missed by 40 mtV. That was explained through another unplanned maintenance and repair issue in Q4, presumably after the target was posted. Not good but certainly not 'terrible'. These things happen!

And you say they need to greet a grip of these production issues. I agree ... and so do they. And they have explained what they are doing about it. What else do you expect?

There are some disappointing features of that RNS but one must be careful not to overstate them. Remember the plant had Ebitda of $37.7 million in Q4! Excellent.

Just my opinion of course.

Anyway must go as I have an exciting day ahead of me !!!

Regards. Pdub.

Onefcc the revised target of 2600 to 2650 mtV was published in the 09 Nov 2018 Q3 vanadium update RNS. It is important to keep up to date with research!

"As a result of the industrial action and an unplanned seven day kiln maintenance exercise, Vametco's 2018 production guidance has been reduced downwards from 2,850 mtV to 3,000 mtV to between 2,600 mtV and 2,650 mtV."

Hope that helps.

Regards. Pdub.

Onefcc the 230 mtV production loss you quote was for all of 2018, not Q4 !

"Vametco's 2018 production of 2,560mtV was impacted by a total of 37.5 days stoppages and unexpected operational challenges. An estimated 230 mtV of production was lost due to these unforeseen events..."

Expert this is the importance of proper research. Their revised target if 2600 to 2650 mtV has been previously published and much discussed on this bb.

Today's figure was a little disappointing to to more unplanned maintenance.

Key point for me Ebitda $39.6 million for Q4 ($106.5 million for 2018). Very profitable.

Production 2560 mtV (target 2600 to 2650 mtV) so just below target due to unplanned maintenance / repair. Unfortunate but this happens.

Being proactive in improving plant and mine efficiency, including use of outside consultant. Positive move.

Drilling results look encouraging at Vametco and Brits.

Mokopane still considering both greenfield site and off takes to China.

Overall very positive is my initial thought, though a little disappointed that still needing to work to get plant productivity up.