Member Info for Pdub

Thanks Ophidian. Much appreciated.

Regards. Pdub

An interesting post Ophidian.

I think we are still suffering from the glass half full v glass half empty issue.

All I will say is this. Fortune has made a clear statement about how the issues at Vametco are to be tackled and that implementation has begun. That I like. It is fairly obvious that these measures will be judged by outcome! But my post was not about outcome ... it was about Informing us what is being done to sort things out. I want those production numbers up as much as you do, but that is going to take time. Give him a chance!

I am well aware that you are less positive about Fortune than I am. However as a shareholder all I will say is that he has absolutely not let me down. It is always easy to criticise but I am delighted that BMN has been one of the best performing shares on AIM for the last two years. Over the last 5 years I have been very consistent in saying that Fortune had the ability to give a good return to shareholders. And hasn't he done just that.

And you are correct .... there is a significant amount of news to come this year. That is why I expect 2019 to be every bit as exciting as the previous two years. And I expect to be right ... Again!

On a more personal note at New Year I held out the hand of friendship. I meant it. So I would appreciate no more references to our turbulent past. Recently I have had to confront a difficult present and uncertain future. That is where my focus is. I have no intention of looking backwards.

Kind regards. Pdub.

And:

"The deposit hosts exciting potential and our drilling programmes at Vametco and Brits have been carefully designed to ensure that we extract the wealth of the minerals in our portfolio and extract them in the most cost efficient, sustainable way."

Unexpected events happen. I am pleased (but not surprised) that the BMN management are tackling this head on.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

So let's revisit the RNS:

"In October 2018 the Company, with the assistance of an independent external consultant, initiated a detailed diagnostic review of the Vametco plant performance. Following the completion of the review in December 2018, the Company commenced an operational Transformation Programme to enhance Vametco's performance.
The Company has commenced the implementation of the Transformation Programme and expects production levels in the current year to be higher than 2018. Guidance for 2019 will be provided in the Q1 2019 operational update once all aspects of this programme have been scheduled."

Fortune should be commended for calling in a consultant to analyse the problems. Note that process is complete and the company have already commenced the programme. They are also being cautious about targets for 2019.

And again:

"... we are mindful of the imperative to drive Vametco towards operational excellence and realise its true potential. The transformation programme we have initiated at Vametco is designed to do just that and we are confident to see an improved production performance during 2019."

Details of the action plan:

"The diagnostic review highlighted that no additional capital expenditure is required to achieve a sustainable production of c.3,400 mtV, which represents 90 per cent of the name plate capacity. In order to achieve the production target management will be primarily focused on, among others:
- Increasing vanadium grade in crushed ore through improved mine scheduling which will result in an increased exposure to ore of higher vanadium content and magnetite;

- Increasing vanadium grade in kiln feed through improved silica liberation;

- Increasing kiln availability through improved engineering practices and production throughput; and

- Sustainably increasing the kiln feed rate.

Phase 3 of the multi-phase project

- The diagnostic assessment highlighted that additional targeted investment is required for the kiln, the leach and crushing circuits to reach Phase 3 capacity. The Company continues to explore several improvement initiatives to further increase production capacity to 5,000 mtV."

In other words, and just as one might expect from a good management team, they have taken steps to identify the issues, plan corrective actions and implement. None of us can surely ask for more. Yet some continue to focus on missed targets without sufficiently recognising what management are doing achieve greater efficiency at the plant.

Even the other two disruptive factors (industrial action and mineral grade) are being addressed through:

"The Company continues to build on the ongoing, cooperative relationship with all stakeholders, particularly our workforce and local communities. An employee share participation scheme will be implemented at Vametco in Q1 2019 which will more closely align Vametco's workforce to its operational targets."

And:

"The deposit hosts exciting potential

I don't challenge the disappointing production numbers for 2018. However the actual numbers are now OLD NEWS. In the Q4 update the latest target was indeed missed, but only by 40 mtV due to an unforeseen maintenance issue.

That same update contained great news on Ebitda, figures that most AIM companies will only ever dream of, yet we still discuss the negative aspects. Ok I understand those that claim this is necessary for balance, including some of the most respected posters, but in my opinion equal attention should be placed on what the company is doing about it. That is a much better measure of the quality of the management team and therefore future potential of profits and share price.

A repeat of a post of mine from yesterday, just to try to get the focus back where in should be ... on BMN

"Perhaps today we could just focus on the positives concerning BMN?

After all what is not to like about Vametco Ebitda (last quarter $39.6 million). How many AIM companies can only dream of such profitability? Most I would imagine.

Prospects for 2019? Rather good!

Even if production stays at Q4 level, and with vanadium prices likely to increase, 2019 should be very significantly more profitable than the $107.5 million Ebitda 2018. So with no increase in production and vanadium prices similar to Q4 Ebitda would be roughly 4 x $40 million !!! ANY success in the planned increase in production raises that figure. Further rises in vanadium price would have a similar effect.

With 74% ownership of Vametco no wonder BMN is cash rich. And very important to remember that BMN has NO DEBT.

I repeat ... BMN has NO DEBT !!!!

Remember that BMN was one of the best performing companies on AIM in both 2017 and 2018. The current business plan suggests that 2019 has the potential to be another very exciting year for BMN shareholders.

But of course you have to own those shares to enjoy the benefits !

Just my opinion. DYOR.

Regards. Pdub.

ps looks like enforcement of the new rebar regs in China will push up vanadium demand but I can't see any significant new supply coming on stream to meet that in the short to medium term. You don't need to be an economics professor to understand the dynamics of this market situation and the likely impact on vanadium prices!"

Please please please can folks stop responding to chartist. Filter like I have.

Surely nobody takes this poster seriously any more.

It is painfull reading the repetitive responses. They are not necessary. This poster was sussed out weeks ago. Filter ignore whatever but please stop engaging.

Wolfman_Jack forgive me but you seem nervous about the future of vanadium. I am not sure why?!?!

We know that new Chinese rebar standards are likely to increase vanadium demand by 10,000 mtV pa mentioned in the video (other sources indicate even larger numbers). New uses such as VRFBs will add to the demand for the metal. On the supply side we know that closure of dirty steel producers has reduced output of vanadium. Hence the market dynamics that have led to rising prices.

So could demand be met by increased production? Unlikely to be easy in the short term. Even BMN have faced problems in raising production. Some producers may be able to make small increases (you mentioned oil refinery production) but an extra 10,000 mtV of demand presents a real challenge to suppliers.

Add to that the young but growing VRFB market and it seems to me that over the next year or two that supply demand dynamic is set to continue.

The panellists in the video appear to be wannabe vanadium producers ... but they are not producing. One spoke of 3 years before their project is up and running. They also stated that vanadium is the best we have found for energy storage. Looks to me like they believe the demand for vanadium will increase and higher prices will be maintained.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Wolfman_Jack I see why you have raised this issue but I am not sure this will be of too much concern for BMN.

My understanding is that most vanadium use is for strengthening rebar and those regulations still stand. In fact the demand for vanadium should increase in China in spite of the 'slow down' due to stricter enforcement of the new standards. That should maintain the supply shortfall and continue to put pressure on the vanadium price.

Similarly in the US where I understand rebar standards to be higher, unless there is a very significant slowdown in the economy, vanadium demand should remain strong and that should add further support to the vanadium price. Rebar manufacturers don't really have any serious alternatives to vanadium. Niobium is also expensive and dominated by one Brazilian producer. The cost of converting to niobium use and the questionable ability of niobium producers to raise output in the short term, plus the likely impact on niobium prices of increased demand, are likely to limit the threat to vanadium.

So whilst raised iron ore prices and reduced output from Brazilian mines may have a small effect on steel production generally I don't expect much impact on vanadium demand for rebar.

Just my opinion of course.

Regards. Pdub.

Yes please Alfa.

Thanks RK

James and Ophidian thanks fir getting things started.

Earlier I invited others to comment on the prospects for Bushveld Energy in 2019. I would do myself but there are those who understand more about the technical side of VRFBs so perhaps are better placed to analyse thus exciting aspect of BMNs future. Just as a starter:

From CEO Christmas message on energy storage:

"In 2019, we will continue advancing our strategy of building a leading energy storage company through Bushveld Energy as we progress the construction of the electrolyte manufacturing plant in South Africa, the deployment of a VRFB at Eskom, the development of vanadium electrolyte leasing products, and securing large scale mandates for VRFB deployments. Bushveld Energy is the focus of our downstream vertical integration into the stationary energy storage market, which is important not only for its proposition of diversifying and growing vanadium demand but also for its outright commercial attractiveness."

Regards. Pdub.

No problem James. Whichever method you used the numbers are real juicy!

Regards. Pdub.

James you specifically said:

"@Expert, Paludina is referring to $220m TURNOVER, not Ebitda.
Based on $220m turnover, I would estimate EBITDA of $130m, i.e. £100m, of which 74% is attributable to BMN so £74m."

Paludina referred to BMN share of $6 million per week as $4.4 million per week.

50 x $4.4 million = $220 million (allows 2 weeks shutdown)

There is confusion here. You did reference Paludina's $220 million (which he clearly indicated was only BMN 74% at $4.4 million.

All speculative I know.

I agree Nick !!!!

Paludina would I be right in thinking that the company are suggesting production increase of between 17 to 32% for 2019?

Would this make the projected revenue and Ebitda quite a bit more than is being discussed here?

Is it also true that economies of scale may produce lower cost per mtV and therefore proportionately higher Ebitda?

Regards. Pdub

Ophidian I have to disappoint you. Enjoying your posts and have no intention of arguing with you ... oops just did haha.

You are on form and a real asset to the bb. Keep up the great work.

Now back to BMN. Anyone any opinion on how significant Bushveld Energy may become to BMN and the sp in coming months and years?

Regards. Pdub.

I'm ok knuttie, thanks. Just frustrated that may be longer to wait for surgery than I had hoped.

We all (myself included) seem to be falling into the trap of giving undue attention to these small time traders. Perhaps today we could just ignore these sad individuals and focus on the positives concerning BMN?

After all what is not to like about Vametco Ebitda (last quarter $39.6 million). How many AIM companies can only dream of such profitability? Most I would imagine.

Prospects for 2019? Rather good!

Even if production stays at Q4 level, and with vanadium prices likely to increase, 2019 should be very significantly more profitable than the $107.5 million Ebitda 2018. So with no increase in production and vanadium prices similar to Q4 Ebitda would be roughly 4 x $40 million !!! ANY success in the planned increase in production raises that figure. Further rises in vanadium price would have a similar effect.

With 74% ownership of Vametco no wonder BMN is cash rich. And very important to remember that BMN has NO DEBT.

I repeat ... BMN has NO DEBT !!!!

Remember that BMN was one of the best performing companies on AIM in both 2017 and 2018. The current business plan suggests that 2019 has the potential to be another very exciting year for BMN shareholders.

But of course you have to own those shares to enjoy the benefits !

I have focussed on likely Vametco performance. Perhaps others might care to speculate on how other developments at BMN might push the sp up?

Just my opinion. DYOR.

Regards. Pdub.

ps looks like enforcement of the new rebar regs in China will push up vanadium demand but I can't see any significant new supply coming on stream to meet that in the short to medium term. You don't need to be an economics professor to understand the dynamics of this market situation and the likely to impact on vanadium prices!