Member Info for Pdub

"...know it alls... "

I see we have the sp know it also working the bb tonight.

Don't let these traders upset you. Remember their horizons are very short and they neither no much about the company nor care about it. Us LTHs know what we have here. The market will play its games and the pi's jumping on that bandwagon will most likely get burned sooner or later. What % of spread betters loose money?

2019 and 2020 looking very exciting. By then our visitors will be long gone.

Regards. Pdub.

Couldn't help but notice a particularly phrase used by Fortune:

"The growth ahead is truly exciting for us"

Something I have suggested numerous times. Great to see it confirmed by BMN CEO .... and he should know.

If people choose to get excited over TA that's up to them. I prefer to take the long view based upon management skills, great resources, an excellent business plan which is being delivered, flexibility to adjust the plan according to circumstances and very exciting market dynamics around Vanadium.

I am sure the path will not be straight, and the lowlifes can be relied upon to try to exploit that, but in the end I believe this to be a great investment with so much more to come.

Got to be in it to win it.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

I agree Sanchez.

Am I right in thinking that BMN should be producing their Dividend policy in Q1? Half way through that quarter already !

I don't think I did Sotonian. Pity.

I thought it quite funny that a trader / TA type with little knowledge of this company should seek to belittle (someone!) as a "data miner" for using facts from RNSs as evidence in support of a stated opinion. Says it all really.

You have to worry about the standard of traders today. Lol.

High expectations? Done a bit of data mining (hehe)

Remembering from H1 interims:

Consolidated Revenue £62.1 million
Consolidated Ebitda £31.7 million
Consolidated Profit after tax £21.1 million

So profit was 2/3 of Ebitda (consolidated) in H1.

And from just Q4:

Vametco Revenue $60.2 million
Vametco Ebitda $39.6 million

(Apologies for pound / dollar use)

BMN own 74% of Vametco.

In 2019 Vametco is likely to see a significant rise in production and most commentators expect a continuation of the vanadium shortage and rising V prices. That alone should raise expectations! Never mind the other prospective vanadium developments, energy storage and the Lemur coal project.

I think there is much to justify high expectations of company performance and rising share price over the course of 2019 / 2020.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Ok sorry Lindon.

Way beyond my pay grade but I take your point about additional production facility.

Lindon you can find reference to cost of Phase 3 expansion programme in Q2 Vanadium update 2018. The estimated cost was $15 million.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=BMN&ArticleCode=ll7lde83&ArticleHeadline=Bushveld_Vanadium_Q2_Operational_Update

In the Q3 vanadium update 2018 the following amendment:

"the Company is reviewing the timing and required investment to expand production capacity to 5,000 mtV."

In Q4 vanadium update 2018 the following:

"The diagnostic assessment highlighted that additional targeted investment is required for the kiln, the leach and crushing circuits to reach Phase 3 capacity. The Company continues to explore several improvement initiatives to further increase production capacity to 5,000 mtV.
During 2019 Vametco will continue to progress environmental approvals for Phase 3 of the multi-phased expansion project. In addition, detailed design work and capital estimation will commence with a view to construction commencing in 2020."

Until the company publishes cost estimates I doubt that anyone can answer your question. Given that Vametco is so profitable and construction doesn't start until 2020 the overall cost of Phase 3 will almost certainly be paid out if Vametco profits. And this investment is designed to significantly increase production.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

ps no apology for data mining, or should I say using evidence to support my opinions.

Evasive as ever.

Why didn't your chart predict the 50% drop in Kibo's sp? Because it couldn't. There is no way your chart could predict that news item and the 50% sp fall in less than one day. And that is exactly why your so called system does not work on AIM - a platform where sp is largely driven by news, sentiment and, dare I say it, manipulation.

That is also why I cannot take your system seriously. It failed to predict BMN's rise from 2p to 8p and each of the other significant rises. You failed to predict those rises because you didn't know anything about the company. You didn't know the fundamentals. And that is key to proper investing. If anyone was falling for it they have the evidence here today. All it is at best is vague possible future scenarios which get destroyed by significant news.

(By the way commiserations to KIBO shareholders. I very much hope your fortune changes quickly!!)

ps why can't you answer my simple question honestly.

1onic you are joking. The "chart" for Kibo predicted nothing. Kibo sp been fairly static for over a week now around 1.68p / 1.7p for a week and up to the release of disappointing RNS today after 10am. Then the sp tanked 50%.

It proves to me how ridiculous this form of charting is on AIM shares which are driven by sentiment and news. I repeat your chart did not predict that drop. You did not predict that drop before the news event.

Had you predicted this yesterday I might have been impressed but hindsight forecasting? Pull the other one.

This exposes the nonsense behind those peddling charts for AIM shares. It simply is not reliable!!!

Just my opinion.

ps when are you going to answer my questions?

Thanks LS forgot to add Q4

Regards. Pdub

And some were concerned that 2,600 mtV target was missed by 40 tons! Mad. The joy of investing in a profit making company like BMN.

No Debt!

Vametco Ebitda $39.6 million. BMN owns 74% of Vametco!

Oh I did 1onic, and your many other posts.

I repeat have you bought back in? I don't mind an evasive answer if you wish. I am curious though whether you are trading BMN, holding BMN, siting watching BMN, just messing with the BMN bb, or any other ....

You don't have to answer, but I can't for the life of me understand why it is so hard to give an honest answer. Is that what happens after years of trading?

I am only curious because of the frequency of your posts (106 posts in 30 days) yet very little mention of the company, its activities and future prospects.

If it makes it any easier I will reveal my position. LTH for over 5 years. I don't trade BMN and am here for at the next year or so. I strongly support the CEO and firmly believe that significant value will be added to my investment over that time frame. I openly admit that I want the sp to rise but don't try to "guess" short term sp. I never post what I don't believe to be true.

So hope that makes it easier for you to reveal your position.

By the way if you are slowly turning positive, well done.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

You bought back in yet 1onic? Just asking so we know when you are going to turn positive.

That's got my vote Ophidian!

Looking further ahead Nick I think this part of Q4 update may have not received enough attention:

"The Mokopane Vanadium Project is a key part of Bushveld's vanadium strategy and the intention remains to secure the mining right and develop the greenfield project into a vanadium mine and processing plant. The Company continues to explore means to supply ore from the project to plants in China and / or elsewhere in the world."

Developing Mokopane as an ore off take source and / or a greenfield production site could be a very exciting development.

A reminder by the way of Fortune's strategic thinking.

Take a look at the timeline for the acquisition of the Brits vanadium project and the Vametco processing plant and mine. This all took place during 2015 and 2016 when vanadium prices were lower than previous years and when Evraz wished to divest itself of the SA assets. This must have significantly impacted on the price of Vametco. Bargain basement price! And then deal agreed and the vanadium price stages a rapid recovery and looks set to continue. Just could not have worked out better for BMN!

23 July 2015 Lemur announce Brits acquisition target.
29 Sept 2015 BMN announce Lemur acquisition complete.
9 May 2016 BMN announce Vametco acquisition target.
6 June 2016 BMN announce Brits acquisition complete.
30 March 2017 BMN announce Vametco acquisition complete.

Brilliant Fortune. Simply brilliant.

Regards. Pdub.

Raffym I think we are all aware of the RNS stated reasons. Perhaps Cindercone was referring to BMN learning as they go. Remember they have little experience at running a commercial mine and production plant. That is precisely why it was such a master stroke to acquire Vametco, complete with its entire management and workforce to run the plant.

The growing pains may be related to the steep learning curve that BMN are on. My investment has always been in Fortune Mojapelo. I am pleased at how he has reacted to this situation. Calling in consultants and implementing a range of improvements, plus focussing on targeting better grades and agreeing a deal with the workforce. These changes should lead to greater production in 2019 and hopefully fewer days lost.

And before anybody leaps in, of course we need to see those results, but at this stage he has done all that could have been expected. I note a more cautious approach to targets so another lesson learnt.

So growing pains was quite a good analogy.

Just my opinion.

Good post cindercone. Summed up things rather well.

Regards. Pdub.