Member Info for Pdub

Me too. Does it all the time when I write poster's names.

Anyway glad we sorted that autocorrect error.

Regards. Pdub.

Good post RK.

May I ask if when you wrote "... the steel market may undermine the vanadium world today ..." did you mean underpin the vanadium world? Quite a difference !

Regards. Pdub.

... by the closing share price yesterday.

The closing mid point price was 26p (mid price normally used as closing share price). Not for the first time an after hours UT price (26.20p) makes the closing price appear higher and thus any increase today seem lower.

Just be aware of that.

Vanadium nitride has been rising at more than 2.5% per day this week. Today up 2.68% according to AsianMetals!

Yippee.

Faramog ... er....

"After that the sp forecast was raised quite sharply but I think JM, like the rest of us and most in the industry, got caught out by the sharp drop in V prices in 2019."

From my 14.54 post.

I agree with your last sentence. Always good to finish on common ground.

Regards. Pdub.

I have to disagree with part of your conclusion faramog.

SPAngel issued a broker note in November 2018 raising the sp to 87p. That was reaffirmed in January 2019. In both notes they assumed that the ferrovanadium price would be $75 kgV. Very clearly that has not happened. Thus their target was not achieved as others had been in 2018 because the sharp fall in V prices caught them and most others by surprise. They were not using $50 kgV that you referred to.

In May 2019 they raised target to 90p based upon $60 kgV.

In July 2019 they reaffirmed the 90p kgV target but lowered their V price target for 2019 to $50 kgV.

I think it is a very fair conclusion to draw that SPAngel were indeed surprised by the extent of the drop in V prices and that goes a long way to explaining not achieving their higher target of 87p.

Although we are around 26p now all their earlier 2018 targets were each achieved within 3 to 4 months as my previous post demonstrated.

Just needed to correct some factual inaccuracies.

Regards. Pdub.

Sorry RK. IPad beat me again.

Rake I hope you will forgive me for pushing BMN to one side for a moment. Some things in life are so much bigger than all of this.

That news is fantastic. I was going to say I can't imagine how happy you must both feel ... But I can, I really can. Enjoy every moment of the rest of your lives as every second you spend together is precious. So happy for you both. What a great day for you.

I hope one day that all of those BMN shareholders affected by cancer will be able to meet together to celebrate successfully beating this disease. Perhaps at a celebration of BMNs success with all the other great contributors to this bb.

Kind regards. Pdub.

TrustedInvestor I'm inclined to agree with you about brokers generally. However in fairness to John Meyer I repost the following:

"SP Angel

Target raised from 11.00 p to 14.3p (+ 30%) on 30 November 2017, and achieved as closing price at the end of March 2018, some 4 months later.

Target raised from 14.00p to 18.28p (+ 30.6%) on 23 Jan 2018, and achieved as closing price in mid April 2018, nearly 3 months later.

Target raised to 24.94p (+ 36.4%) on 27 April 2018 and achieved as closing price on 30 July 2018, some 3 months later.

Target raised from 24.94p to 33.60p (+ 34.7%) on 13 August 2018. I believe this was achieved on or about the 01 November 2018, a little less than 3 months after target set.

I don't for a minute pretend that all Mr Meyer's targets have been accurate, which is hardly surprising given the number of variables involved. However his record over that 12 month period was good"

After that the sp forecast was raised quite sharply but I think JM, like the rest of us and most in the industry, got caught out by the sharp drop in V prices in 2019. With a possible reversal of some of the V price drop underway and Vanchem and BE activity to come I wouldn't rule out achieving the 92p at some point in the not too distant future!

Either way next 18 months looking very exciting ... you are feeling sleepy ..... Next 18 months looking very exciting .... your eyes are feeling heavy .... next 18 months looking very exciting .... Zzzzz

(Sorry. That last bit was for vijay!)

All just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

That's good to know pb940. I have always considered him a fan of BMN. I know there was a brief period when his comments appeared a little less enthusiastic, but that was around the time of the legal case and I suspect he was a bit cheesed off that BMN didn't take SPAngel advice as NOMAD. And he was correct!

Relationship seems strong again these days.

Worth remembering that the real mid point closing price last night was 25p, not the UT price of 25.6p

So using a close of 25p we are 5% up today!

My pleasure pb940. One of the few things I can still do without some degree of discomfort. And hopefully helps others here.

Worth remembering that JM has provided some great quotes and I have often used them to troll bash ... another thing I can do without too much discomfort. In fact very enjoyable !

Regards. Pdub.

John Meyer 31.07.16 on Vox Markets.

Full transcript:

"Big news today is from BMN who had an absolutely storming first half result this morning. EBITDA $48 million so they've done most of what we expected them to do for the year in the first half. Now that's from a combination of higher ferrovanadium prices through the first half. They had also a bit of a hangover ... they get a bit of delayed pricing so that helps them.

But they've been very good at pushing their unit costs down so the combination of relatively good vanadium prices, lower costs and a slightly weaker SA Rand serves to mean that their EBITDA margins are over 50%. That will fall through the second half in our view, but I suspect the 4th is going to go better.

So we are still looking for the company to produce an EBITDA number of about $77 million for the year and it raises our valuation to 92p per share.

BMN is not just about producing ferrovanadium in the form of nitrovan but it's also about the BE business which is going to produce these VRFBs so these are giant batteries for grid storage to go with solar farms and wind farms. The World Bank has been looking to promote a lot more of this in SA. We think there's going to be some big programmes and BMN through their BE subsidiary are very well placed to provide the vanadium electrolyte for these new battery installations."

"What's your target price?"

"Well we've put a valuation of 92p on it because we think that's what the business is worth. Difficult to exactly figure out a target for these companies at the moment but certainly there's got a lot of upside in it."

"And just to put that in context at the moment share price is 26p, so hopefully some decent upside there?"

"I think so. I think the market likes BMN but has yet to really get the full value of it"

'Larky'

Sorry. iPad on way out of window from top floor!

Larry the mid point at close was 25p. That should be the comparison for rises or falls. However there was a UT trade after hours at 25.60p. For some daft reason the system uses that as the closing price. This although the sp is up this morning the system showed it as down

Don't be deceived by this.

Max buy on HL = £60

Sorry mogwhy. My iPad has a mind of its own !

Thanks jog why. Hadn't picked up on that.

Regards. Pdub.

Apologies 'Vauch'

That was a strange autocorrect!

Bausch you need to take a more measured approach to RNSs such as this.

Vanchem was ALWAYS scheduled to be BY 31 October. Not a delay. Can't close yet as Competition Commission decision not yet received!

JSE listing moved to accommodate Vanchem acquisition. Makes sense as BMN will be much more valuable.

Dividend policy dealt with in Final Results.

Overall that was a very positive RNS showing lower costs at Vametco and maintaining improved production. There was previously some discussion of annual planned maintainance shutdown in June and July. If that happened then production numbers look even better.