Member Info for Pdub

Alfa wrote this in Jan 2019:

"As the world's appetite for safe construction and higher quality steel rebar increases and steelmakers discover they improve efficiency and reduce costs with Nitrovan® we should expect premiums to increase. It can be hypothesised that an extended period of high Vanadium prices may naturally accelerate a deepening market reappreciation of Nitrovan®."

Perhaps the strong price performance of Vanadium Nitride over the last two weeks reflects an increasing demand for Vanadium Nitride relative to other Vanadium products? Of course this is highly speculative and based on nothing more than recent % price increases shown on AsianMetals. I would welcome other thoughts on this as it could have a significant bearing on pricing Vametco product.

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/vametco-processing-plant-visit-408

Just my opinion.

Looks like vanadium nitride is the star of the V show at present. Anyone know a company that produces it? Lol.

Cheer up coffeecups.

I understand what you are saying Berserker. However as I have stated on numerous occasions I haven't invested in South Africa ... I have invested in Fortune Mojapelo.

And I am very comfortable with that.

That's all from me. Apologies to all for taking up so much bb space today.

Berserker I share your view that there may be one or more institutions selling. That is a perfectly natural situation. Many institutions invest for dividend return. BMN currently does not pay a dividend. Thus any institutions holding shares would need to sell to make profit.

I have no specific evidence of this but I could understand institutions participating in he last placing at around 10p taking profit of 140% of more. There can be many reasons for this, and not necessarily anything to do with BMN. For example an investment fund may have rules about the proportion of the fund in any one investment. Should the value of an investment rise significantly it may breach that rule, requiring sale of some of the shares. I used to have a 25% rule but once I realised just what a gem of an investment I had stumbled upon that rule has been trashed!

I know I shouldn't give advice Berserker but I will break that rule. Don't wait until there are no negatives as that is unlikely to happen in any investment. You need to balance the negatives v positives. Some no doubt think I am not aware of the risks with BMN, but that would be utter nonsense. The reason I am supportive of BMN is because the positives are so much greater than the negatives, as proven by the history of the company. Anyway feel free to ignore my advice. I am after all just another pi. However I think you have found a good investment and I hope it works well for you.

All just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub

Berserker if you have followed my posting history you will notice that I try to use facts as the starting point for my posts. I have even been accused of data mining, meant as a patronising insult but I take it as a compliment for using facts. As I have no evidence that your suggestion is true I will not offer an opinion.

If you are implying that institutions have not invested in BMN I'm afraid the evidence is against you.

I would point out that the CEO has previously stated that there is much interest amongst the SA investment community in BMN. Hence the decision to list on the JSE.

You raise the issue of BE and the future. I think you will find that the SA Govt will be fully supportive of this industry, particularly with the need to de carbonise their economy. I would also point out the announcements from the World Bank with regard to investment in Africa.

Furthermore we already have collaborative arrangements with two US companies, UET and Avalon, neither if whom were phased by the SA political situation.

Ramaphosa has only been in power for 17 months. He has made very positive moves to reform the country and tackle corruption. There are obstacles to this so it will take time. You question the future political situation and how this would affect BE. In my opinion we will see improvements as Ramaphosa progresses change. It is therefore impossible to judge what impact that may or may not have.

One thing is certain ... Fortune thinks several steps ahead of you and I so I expect him to have most bases covered. He is building a company that will be supplying an increasing global demand for both Vanadium and Electrolyte. Whatever happens in terms of SA politics the demand is there for the company's products and that will drive the success of the business. I have no doubt that FM / NM will also build a successful VRFB business within SA and possibly throughout the African continent. There was an intriguing discussion here about India and I would not be surprised to see some developments there.

All in all an incredibly positive outlook I am sure you would agree, so no need for unnecessary negativity.

Just my opinion.

I am aware of concerns that some have about the political situation in SA but that is nothing new. Even under Zuma's corrupt Goverment BMN enjoyed a large sp rise linked to the Vametco acquisition. It is an issue that has been raised constantly during my nearly 6 years invested here, yet I am 1100% up! Hasn't done my investment much damage!

Also worth considering these counter points:

Almost all BMN product is exported. Sales not affected by SA economy.
Receipts are in US $. Fall in value of Rand makes the company more profitable and surely a more attractive investment.
The company's activities and future plans are exactly inline with the new Govt's industrial strategy.
The company's profitability is more affected by the price of Vanadium than any internal political issues.
Gold mining has been in decline in SA and coal mining faces challenges. Minerals such as Vanadium offer an alternative and are likely to be fully supported by the SA Govt.

None of the above removes concerns about the political environment in SA, but they are surely going to be considered positives by potential investors.

Just my opinion.

IS one frequent visitor here that regularly uses a new identity gets banned quite quickly each time, I assume because he uses the same ip address. This may not be the ultimate solution but at least LSE are doing something. It may not stop the hard core but makes it more difficult for the numpties. Surely better than LSE doing nothing!

YTSS I am sure there are a number of factors affecting the CURRENT sp and I don't pretend to be an expert on this as my view is firmly fixed over the horizon. However for what it is worth here are some of my thoughts.

AIM likes cash. BMN has excellent cash flow and profit, but the fall in V price has caused a retrace in the sp to current level (possibly aided by shorting etc.). I don't believe the sp will go lower than the current trading pattern as the company is still very profitable at this level. I also believe there is at least one large seller that seems to want at least 23p +.

BMN is currently putting in place the foundations of a much larger organisation with greater cash generating capacity. When these developments come to fruition (eg completion of Vanchem acquisition) I expect to see a significant upward movement in sp if only because revenue and profit will increase, hence the value of the company. The current pause in sp feels a bit like the period at 8p and I expect the rise at the end of this period to be equally impressive.

BE has incredible potential but at present is not generating cash flow. That will change.

Looking forward into 2020 the JSE listing and possible dividend payments provide yet more reasons to be confident about the future share price.

Underpinning all of this is a CEO with brilliant strategic thinking and who has a track record of delivering on his promises where that is within his capacity, albeit not always to an estimated timetable.

Of course further rises in V price, especially in Europe and USA would add further pressure on the sp.

In summary I am not at all worried by short term sp fluctuations. BMN has been through this before. Then sentiment suddenly changes and ... BOOM. For example in March to April 2017 and March to May 2018.

I am entirely focussed on company activity as that is what ultimately will deliver value to shareholders.

This of course is just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub

(Part 3)

"That's great news. Now you've said that the structures and documentation is now in place and forms the groundwork for future projects. Is it safe to assume that there's already been discussion about further projects? And I guess what I'm asking is what else should investors be looking out for in the coming months?"

"If we're talking further projects it depends what we are referring to. If we are talking about our primary producing platform I think that it's fair to say with Vametco and Vanchem our priority is to complete the acquisition of Vanchem, post competition approval, and to make sure that we undertake that refurbishment programme as quickly as possible to get Vanchem producing at 4,200 mtV pa level. At Vametco we have a clear priority to increase the production volumes there. Incidentally the increasing production volumes further lower your costs of production which will make our production that much more competitive. So those are the immediate priorities for us for vanadium production point if view.

On the energy front there are a number of initiatives that we have said that we are doing. Certainly we want to grow our plan of the rental product. We also want to grow our plan of VRFB projects. One of the things we do do is try to develop mandates for large scale energy storage which we can solve through VRFBs. Of course we've got the electrolyte plant that we are building up in East London with the IDC. We have a solar / VRFB mini grid that we are busy with at Vametco, which we are quite excited about and which we would like to use to demonstrate the business case for typically what you call your industrial large energy user customers. So that's a lot of stuff that the market can expect from us.

At a corporate level we have announced that we are looking and thinking of listing on the JSE. We think that we have a story that resonates very very well with the capital markets in SA and would like to create a platform for local capital markets to participate in our story. And we continue the work to expand our organisational capacity. We've seen tremendous growth over the last 2 years and it's quite important for us to make sure that our capacity to manage this growth, as well as the growth that yet lies ahead, is strengthened. And in respect of that you will see some news flow in the coming months and years."

Part 2)

"Definitely. Now just yesterday we saw that your subsidiary BE has enabled the successful deployment of an innovative vanadium electrolyte rental product in industrial scale batteries. Obviously this is very exciting but what does this mean fir the company?"

"Yes we've got 2 key platforms for vanadium in our company. Bushveld Vanadium which is really the production assets comprising three very attractive deposits with a resource base which is fantastic. The largest primary vanadium resource base of anyone, with the kind of grade that I talked about earlier. We have Vametco is one of two production assets with Vanchem coming on board. With the two of them at full production capacity would be producing of the order of 8,400 tons of Vanadium pa.

Now with that kind of production platform which is low cost we believe that we will be very well placed to play a meaningful role also in the energy space. We will continue to supply to the steel sector but we also see the energy storage market as a really attractive market for us as a company to get involved with. That's important at two levels. The first one being that it helps strengthen and diversify vanadium demand and the second one (sorry three levels) is the fact that the stationary energy storage market in its own right is a very very compelling commercial opportunity for us as a company. And then thirdly we think that energy storage provides a very neat natural hedge for us as a company because if vanadium prices come lower the attraction of VRFBs in stationary energy storage applications becomes that much more compelling.

So that's the underlying motivation for us to go into this interesting market. However we are also mindful that one of the key hurdles to adoption for VRFBs is the volatility of vanadium price. Unlike many other battery systems vanadium makes up a significant share of the cost of VRFBs, between 30 and 45% quite easily. So a rental product like the one we have done is our way of solving that challenge. We believe that it takes out a significant chunk of the upfront Capex of the battery system and converts it into an Opex number over what is a long lifespan for these batteries. They have a very long lifespan. VRFB can last for about 20 years. During that period the electrolyte doesn't degrade and because it doesn't degrade it has a significant residual value at the end of the life of the VRFB. That electrolyte can be converted easily into FeV or be put into another battery. And so that's why we thought that this solution will be a very very key enabler for VRFBs and we are very pleased to have done this first contract and I should just say it's the first ... we certainly hope to do a lot more going forward."

FM on Directors Talk 12.06.19 (Part 1) (Time to remind everyone why we are here.)

"There's been quite a bit of news flow for BMN over the last month or so. Now towards the end of last month you provided an update on the Vametco Indicated Mineral Resource. Can you just talk us through the highlights?"

"Yes. We essentially provided an updated resource statement for Vametco. As you know Vametco is our core current producing platform and following some additional work that we did from drilling we are very pleased with the updated resource which reflects a significant increase on our resource size and confirms the great quality of our resource base. So we now have a resource base that is 187 million tons with an average grade of 1.98% V2O5 which represents an increase of some 31%, as well as a growth in our reserve of 85% to 48.4 million tons. And again importantly is a growth that is not at the expense of the quality of our resource base and the reserve grade is 2.02% V2O5 which is fantastic."

"It is indeed. Now we also saw Final Results for the period 31 December 2018. In your view what were the key points that investors should take from those results?"

"It's the first time that we have the results reflecting the consolidated position of the company including Vametco, which we acquired starting in 2017. So for the first time you can see the impact of an asset like Vametco on the performance of BMN, which on a consolidated basis demonstrated very solid financial figures of $192 million revenue and Ebitda of $101 million, with a very strong cash position of $42 million. And of course underpinning all of this is Vametco itself which demonstrated its attraction of its solid proposition to us as a low cost producer. One other point that I think you will pick up from our Financial Results which is important to highlight is the fact that we've achieved these results without any debt on our balance sheet. So that positions us very very well for growth going forward."

St0wski I don't entirely disagree with you that too much time is spent discussing shorting. However it is a fact that this share has been shorted.

However, accepting you are a shareholder, knowing that the sp seems to be caught in a range and understanding the frustration of many here, I would suggest that it was grossly irresponsible to raise the negative of Glencore's profits here and suggesting it would push the BMN down. It is totally irrelevant to the high performance of BMN, a company making large profits and actively expanding its operations.

In my opinion as a shareholder you need to consider the impact of your comments on others, especially less experienced investors you may easily be spooked by such negativity. I feel very strongly that shareholders that believe in a company, and as you are a shareholder it would be daft for you not to believe in BMN, should be supportive of that investment. That does not mean ignoring relevant issues but it most certainly does include not spreading false negativity.

I am not surprised at the sharp response you received. In my opinion it was well deserved.

St0wski interesting that you open with a negative about Glencore. The flaw in your argument is that Glencore are a global multi product company so comparing them to BMN a South Africa based single product company (for now) is not really relevant. You made no attempt to explain the drop in Glencore profit. This may be for reasons unrelated to anything BMN does. And as we know BMN sp has been hit by the Vanadium price drop AND shorting. As the V price has risen recently, and especially vanadium nitride, the sp should be doing the opposite of what you suggest, using your own logic.

Try not to introduce spurious negativity please. Let's at least try to support this great company. No good complaining about company PR if it's own shareholders aren't prepared to step up to the mark and defend the company, assuming you are a shareholder.

Joint effort Ophidian. Thanks to you both.

Regards. Pdub.

Share price up today.

Rats getting nervous?

Then what do you suggest wealdpwr?

That last reference was from an RNS in July 2018 so may not reflect current plans for SPD Project which they claim aims to fast track and be in production in 2019! I would imagine that will be small scale at best!

LinkedDreams I found a reference in an RNS from 2018 that suggests the Application was lodged in 2015:

"VanRes held a prospecting right over the SPD Project from 2009 until 2015 when an application for a Mining Right was lodged."

That wording is a little ambiguous. I could mean the application was lodged anytime between 2009 and 2015. Or it could also mean 2015. See pages 5 and 6:

https://www.tandoresources.com.au/sites/default/files/asx-announcements/6877049.pdf

I believe AlastairMcgrift followed Tando (now Vanadium Resources) more closely than most and may have a better take on this? Alastair hope all is well as I notice you have been absent for a while. I value your contributions very much.

Also of note perhaps is this reference from an RNS:

"The SPD Vanadium Project is located only 30kn from the currently dormant Mapochs mine which has a processing plant and railway infrastructure"

Are they looking in that direction for processing?

Hope that helps.

Regards. Pdub

Ok. May have answered my own question. ASX announcement on 27 July 2018 notifies granting of Mining Rights.