Member Info for Pdub

Lindon that is a very interesting post. I have no idea if your conclusions are correct but they are very plausible. Certainly offers a very profitable future for BE in my opinion.

Calamari you are no more an expert on the future price of vanadium than I am. That is why I look across a range of analysts to seek common thoughts amongst folk that have greater knowledge and expertise on this market than you or I do. I am sure you would agree that is a sound course of action … as you are an investor.

There seems to be a general agreement amongst those analysts and experts that the demand for vanadium will remain strong and that this is likely to fuel further rises in the commodity price.

You can disagree all you like with that but your disagreement will not be with me … it will be with people with access to more information than you or I have and who do this for a living. Choice is yours.

Everything points to rising V prices in 2021. For BMN that means rising profitability.

Whether or not you chose to buy is of no interest to me. What you write on this bb is.

Correction: “… in relation to V price.”

There has been some talk today around production costs, which must always be seen in context and in relation to V costs.

I note one familiar trader that currently I believe does not hold a position here (very important to remember that such a person is always looking for a lower entry point) saying they wouldn’t buy at 8p. Well frankly then not a very good trader.

Back to the point about production costs. The following extract from the RNS is VERY important:

“Q1 2021 production cash cost of US$26.51/kgV was 37 per cent higher than Q1 2020 (Q1 2020: US$19.36/kgV) and 27 per cent higher than Q4 2020 (Q4 2020: US$20.90/kgV) due to lower volumes as a result of the planned maintenance shutdown and a stronger ZAR:USD exchange rate.”

It clearly tells us that one of the main factors for unusually high production costs in Q1 at Vametco was that the plant was shut for 35 days for maintenance. Fixed costs still have to be paid but are therefore spread over a much lower tonnage of production and therefore a much higher unit cost. This is temporary and the plant is already back to normal. So what does the company expect normal to be in terms of production costs? See next extract:

“it is currently anticipated that Vametco production will be towards the lower end of guidance of between 2,700 mtV and 2,850 mtV and the higher end of its production cash cost (C1) of between US$20.0/kgV and US$21.30/kgV (ZAR320/kgV and ZAR340/kg).”

So back to the $20 to $21 range. When looking forward at profitability make sure this is fully understood.

Looking forward the group production is still likely to be in excess of 4000 mtV in 2021, the largest ever total?

And just about every analyst sees rising demand and therefore a tightening of supplies in 29121. Expect continued rises in the Vanadium price which will significantly further improve profit margins. Don’t let the scaremongers kid you otherwise.

So in 2021 we have:

Increasing production
Improved reliability and efficiency at Vametco
Rising V prices
Increasing profitability

You would have to be a real pessimist to think that won’t push up the share price. Hopefully the Q2 update will give us confirmation. When the ii selling ends that should remove the brake on the share price.

And all this done without the aid of Bushveld Energy. The energy storage business will be important but as yet it does not define BMN. The steel industry remains by far the largest market and demand from there looks strong.

It is important for everyone to be as familiar with details such as these in order to prevent being hoodwinked by trolls and traders. Then you can make your own informed decisions.

Bassguy you cheeky young man. How dare you patronise shareholders that hold a more positive view than you do by writing this cr*p: “ … and no rampy chat by LTH will help unless some pump crews latch on for a bit.”

Express your opinions about BMN by all means. Don’t insult others just because they aren’t as negative as you.

At least I am doing my bit to support my investment. And for the record I only write what I truly think. Try looking up the meaning of the word ramp. Don’t apply it to everyone who expresses a positive opinion.

And how do you know what impact opinions expressed on this bb have on sentiment and therefore the share price?

I wonder if we have all got a little ahead of ourselves over Bushveld Energy. The opportunities for this division are exciting but are we so caught up in this that maybe we have developed unrealistic expectations over timelines (yes yes I know that BMN have played a part in raising those expectations but they don’t control the speed of development of the market despite ingenious collaborations with other companies).

Fact is that the revenue generating part of the business is dominated by sales to the steel industry. We have (uniquely) two primary production plants supplying the vanadium to a market that according to many analysts is growing and placing pressure on the supply chain. China now a net importer.

We have witnessed a slow but steady growth in the V price and from what I read no one in the business expects this to stop soon.

We should now see increasing production following investment and refurbishment at Vametco and Vanchem whilst at the same time prices for the product continue to rise.

Greater production numbers will also reduce fixed costs and therefore profit margins are likely to rise (significantly if V prices rise quickly and / or over an extended period of time).

We can debate PR all we like or waste time analysing the tone of Fortune’s voice or the width of his smile. End of the day what will really matter is delivering the business ... and in terms of working towards greater and more efficient V production they are most definitely delivering.

The last V spike generated huge profit for BMN. I don’t think anyone expects the V price to reach that level but BMN now produces more Vanadium than at that time and the production at Vanchem is 100% owned. I anticipate a marked increase in profit going forward if the events I have described play out.

And that is without a $ earned from electrolyte production or BE contracts!

I believe I have the right to be even more frustrated than most of you with some slippage in timings. The BoD must take some responsibility for that but some factors like Covid, interruptions to power supply, very rainy weather, SA Govt dithering, slower growth of the VRFB than some hoped for, etc are beyond their control.

We also know that the sp has been hit by Covid, at least 2 institutions selling down, some shorting, some pi’s exiting and no doubt games played by mm’s. Again whilst I am sure there is more that the BoD could have done to support the sp, these factors would still be very difficult to fully overcome.

Some of you appear to be unwilling to accept things as they are any longer. That is your choice. I still see tremendous potential for investors in BMN. Whether time is on my side to benefit from that I guess we will find out later.

All just my opinion.

Correction: “… You were one of the very active troll bashers…”

Sanchez I do try to read your comments with an open mind as I am interested in why you have so significantly changed your position with regard to BMN. Not that long ago you would have rounded upon anyone you dared to post negatively BMN, and not unusual for you to be very blunt in your language about those posters. Yerevan one of the very active troll bashers.

Now, in this very strange 2021 (in so many ways for all of us), here you are doing exactly the same only now targeting anyone who maintains positive support for their investment and BMN. I was interested in your latest post up to the point where you wrote this:

“… still the same people who are religiously incapable of acknowledging pretty woeful business performance and continually demonstrating their own lack of imagination and desire to see this business improve …”

I assume this is directed at shareholders and posters on this bb and the rest of this post is based upon that assumption. If that is incorrect please say so and explain who it referred to, and of course ignore the remainder of my post.

What an arrogant and insulting comment about intelligent investors who have a slightly different view to your own. I shouldn’t be surprised given how you have posted in the past. I am however confused as to why an intelligent person like yourself thinks that writing that insult helped your cause (whatever that is). I switched off as soon as I read that section.

I know you are developing quite a following amongst frustrated shareholders, those of negative persuasion and no doubt the trolls who must love the ammunition you are giving them. Please don’t play to that audience by targeting those who have there own reasons for supporting BMN. A little bit if respect goes a long way. Then maybe I can read your posts with interest and without waiting for the next insults from a former ally.

When you wrote this in response to Gambit you may need to first consider your own posting style:

“And in the same way I respect your point of view, perhaps you could do the same.”

Regards. Pdub.

Thank you Faramog. Appreciated.

I must also apologise for a schoolboy reporting error. 688 mtV was group production not just Vametco. Only realised the mistake when cross checking other data from previous year.

Interesting that 10 wise people recommended a post that ends with “… so sod off..,”

There is a statement about the quality if this bb. No wonder others chose to post elsewhere.

Well faramog we are clearly not going to agree about how to support our investment.

You are fully entitled to express your opinion, as am I. Let’s both hope that my positive view of BMN and its direction of travel is correct because if so we will both benefit through our investments.

No one is asking you to ramp faramog. I’m asking you to be balanced and not continually put this negativity out to the bb. Is that really so difficult for you to understand?

We need new investors
These RNSs are complicated and new investors won’t understand the context.
You could help as you have history here.
By all means discuss the negatives but don’t forget to explain the positive investment proposition.

Correction on date: “… Production in Q1 2921 of 688 mtV was only 15 mtV less than in Q4 2020despite a 35 day maintenance shutdown…”

Faramog you failed to highlight specific positives from the RBS yet you make a big thing of any (perceived) negative. You complain about the company nit putting a positive spin yet do exactly the same yourself. More annoyingly you risk damaging my investment by harming sentiment.

Here is something you could have highlighted if you could be bothered to take the time:

Production in Q1 2921 of 688 mtV was only 15 mtV less than in Q4 2021, despite a 35 day maintenance shutdown. That is great news don’t you agree?

When you wrote this : “guidance to lower end costs still higher than hoped,” why didn’t you explain that this was largely the drop in production due to 35 day planned maintenance shutdown and the impact of fixed costs on unit production costs? Was that just lazy reporting or did you not understand it? Either way your comment gave a very misleading picture.

Why don’t you do some proper research and support your investment. Stop being so bl**dy negative all the time. You also have a responsibility as a shareholder to support your investment. Spread the good news (and there is plenty of it). That is of course assuming you want the share price to rise.

Oh and please no more blah blah blah about what the company should be doing as your defence. Step into the real world and play your part in supporting your investment. You can’t control the company’s actions but you are 100% responsible for your own, and that is how I judge you.

If you aren’t happy with the company then write and tell them so, but first open your eyes to the real positives in that RNS.

Faramog I would love to see you support your investment but common sense seems to have escaped you.

gkd47 I would have maybe a tiny bit of respect for you if you posted in a regular and balanced manner. However you pr blatant deramp and seemingly gloating attitude is shameful. You certainly haven’t matured with age,

We weren’t expecting a blockbuster this time around because we knew about the 35 day maintenance shutdown at Vametco. In that context there is much to be pleased with.

The Vametco maintenance programme was completed on time and in budget! This hopefully will ensure stability of production through 2021.

Vametco lost 35 out of a possible 90 days production in Q1 (-39%) due to maintenance shutdown. However compared to Q1 2020 (mostly pre the worst of COVID) production only dropped from 880 mtV to 688 mtV (-22%). So despite the shutdown the drop in production was proportionately a lot less than expected, and all this during COVID!

Further good production news from Vanchem where production in Q1 2021 of 293 mtV was 34 per cent higher than Q1 2020 (Q1 2020: 219 mtV) supported by improved operational stability.

Group guidance for 2021 Vanadium production remains at above 4000 mtV. Thus is very good news as we see continually rising Vanadium prices.

Vanadium price during Q1 2021 on LME was $30.9 kgV, up from $26.5 kgV in Q1 2020, which is good news. Even better that since end of Q1 Vanadium price has averaged $32 kgV

Work on Electrolyte plant has begun. This will lead to a further revenue stream down the road.

Currently zero COVID cases at plants.

I note the higher production costs at Vametco but this is largely due to lower production but high fixed costs. Q2 will see production costs lower as a full Q of improved production reduces the impact of fixed costs on unit production costs.

Pleased that Bushveld Energy will in future be reported separately.

Overall I am pleased that the 35 day maintenance shutdown had less impact then I expected and BMN is set for a good Q2. Under the circumstances this was a solid RNS setting up a post it I’ve 2021. Well done BMN

Fizzy if you are underwater and fed up about it you have my sympathy. In my early years of investing I had a few of them.

My solution in the end was to sell those investments, take the loss on the chin and move on. And you know what? I always felt much better afterwards. What I never did was spend months complaining about a poor investment and blaming everyone else for my bad decision, l always took responsibility for my buying and selling.

If I were you I would spend a little less time worrying about whether Pdub is happy with his investment and focus more on what you need to do .... and then do it. But please stop the whinging!

I will share this with you. When I first invested in BMN as a wannabe iron ore miner I did not think for one minute that the company would be where it is now ... two primary vanadium plants, huge in ground vanadium resources with an expanding mining division, a leading player in the fledgling VRFB market and gearing up to produce electrolyte, all leading to becoming a large low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform. And some very exciting possible future developments eg iron ore? Am I happy with all this? OH YES! This exceeds what my expectations were for this company when I first invested. The BoD delivered big time.

Of course I am not happy with the share price (even though I got in early enough to still be in profit). Who would be. Certainly not Fortune as I believe he has several million shares and I dare say is as keen for a rise in sp as you and I are.

I am convinced that the market will eventually function properly and the share price will accurately reflect the value of the company.

Just grabbed a few more at 16.465p. Hope that’s triggered a new rise.

Correction “… on my cancer at the same time….”