Member Info for Pdub

2020 with COVID and depressed Vanadium prices BMN had to work hard to keep to the plan and with tight margins some adjustments were necessary. These and no doubt other factors didn’t help the share price.

In Q1 despite steadily rising Vanadium prices and a surge in the share price the sp fell back again, clearly affected by the planned 35 day maintenance shutdown resulting in higher than normal fixed costs of production per kg.

In Q2 the Vandium price rise continues, every day potentially increasing profit margins at Vametco and Vanchem,yet the share price remains stubbornly low. Why?

Just my opinion but throughout this entire periiod there has been large background selling from at least 2 or more entities (we know Duferco and Acacia gave been selling at various times) and that appears to be continuing. Inevitably that has been a huge drag on the share price.

The good news is that once those large shareholders have finished the share price should be free to recover to true value and possibly quickly. The current low price seems to present an unexpected buying opportunity for those who believe the future is exciting for BMN and its shareholders.

Don’t believe me about the sellers? Then explain the constant large round numbered sells of 50,000 to 100,000 or more. Some could be pi’s of course but over the months this represents very large numbers of shares being sold. Of course one can’t rule out shirting and mom manipulation as additional factors.

The continually rising Vanadium price is simply making that bounce likely to be stronger, reflecting the increasing profitability of the company.

Of course this is all just my opinion. Might be completely wrong, but if my theory is correct ……

2020 with COVID and depressed Vanadium prices BMN had to work hard to keep to the plan and with tight margins some adjustments were necessary. These and no doubt other factors didn’t help the share price.

In Q1 despite steadily rising Vanadium prices and a surge in the share price the sp fell back again, clearly affected by the planned 35 day maintenance shutdown resulting in higher than normal fixed costs of production per kg.

In Q2 the Vandium price rise continues, every day potentially increasing profit margins at Vametco and Vanchem,yet the share price remains stubbornly low. Why?

Just my opinion but throughout this entire periiod there has been large background selling from at least 2 or more entities (we know Duferco and Acacia gave been selling at various times) and that appears to be continuing. Inevitably that has been a huge drag on the share price.

The good news is that once those large shareholders have finished the share price should be free to recover to true value and possibly quickly. The current low price seems to present an unexpected buying opportunity for those who believe the future is exciting for BMN and its shareholders.

Don’t believe me about the sellers? Then explain the constant large round numbered sells of 50,000 to 100,000 or more. Some could be pi’s of course but over the months this represents very large numbers of shares being sold. Of course one can’t rule out shirting and mom manipulation as additional factors.

The continually rising Vanadium price is simply making that bounce likely to be stronger, reflecting the increasing profitability of the company.

Of course this is all just my opinion. Might be completely wrong, but if my theory is correct ……

vanadiumprice.com today showing ferrovanadium prices in China at $37 and Europe $33.95.

The Nitrovan produced at Vametco sells for a premium other vanadium products as I understand it.

From RNS Q1 2021 Update:

“Q1 2021 production cash cost of US$26.51/kgV was 37 per cent higher than Q1 2020 (Q1 2020: US$19.36/kgV) and 27 per cent higher than Q4 2020 (Q4 2020: US$20.90/kgV) due to lower volumes as a result of the planned maintenance shutdown and a stronger ZAR:USD exchange rate”

and:

“Management continues to monitor plant performance and keep production guidance under review, however, it is currently anticipated that Vametco production will be towards the lower end of guidance of between 2,700 mtV and 2,850 mtV and the higher end of its production cash cost (C1) of between US$20.0/kgV and US$21.30/kgV (ZAR320/kgV and ZAR340/kg).”

So the unusually high production cash costs in Q1 were a one off heavily skewed result of the 35 day maintenance shutdown down but still having to meet fixed costs.

The forward projection sees production cash costs back to $20 to $21 now that the plant is fully functioning.

Worth looking at the graphs on vanadiumprice.com to see the strong upward trend in Vanadium prices in Europe and China. Doesn’t show the US but I would imagine the same trend is present.

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/

That trend upward began in December 2020 and is looking very strong. BMN becoming more profitable by the day?

Coffeecups still up to your old tricks of trying to put a negative spin on everything.

Now if that is your honestly held opinion you have a right to express it on this bb, though clearly it does no favours to sentiment. But then of course you know that ...

What surprised me very much was this part of your post:

“... Then the workforce walk out on you .... well done Unions - thanks for that.”

Factually that is wrong.

First it was only part of the workforce, not the entire workforce as implied by your statement.

Second it is very well known that this action WAS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE UNIONS! Now you might like to pretend that this misleading statement is of no consequence. However I disagree. Interesting that you banged on about the unions in more than one post.

You like to portray yourself as worldly wise about this share, yet apparently you didn’t even know this was unofficial action and as such was never going to last long. That is a very surprising level of ignorance.

Of course their is another explanation .... that you did know this but deliberately portrayed it as union supported to give the impression that the plant has poor industrial action.

I will leave it to others to decide if your post was based on ignorance or deceit. Either way thank goodness others were able to call you out and not let you get away with it.

I hope no harm was done because I am sure many on here are already aware of the games that you like to play.

Respect to BBN for taking the time to respond in detail to your posts. I think he pretty much covered all that was necessary.

More telling is that you haven’t even got the courtesy to thank BBN for responding in such a thoughtful way to your points. Says it all.

Just my opinion of course.

Quote from RNS of 30 November 2020:

Philip Clegg, Portfolio Manager at Orion, commented:

"We are thrilled to get the expansion at Vametco fully funded and to support the refurbishment plans at Vanchem. We are looking forward to partnering with Bushveld as it executes its growth strategy and ongoing advancement into battery technologies."

Partnering Bushveld as it executes its growth strategy doesn’t sound like words from an investor that wants to cut and run. Could of course be wrong and just my opinion.

**** = s l a g

Roskill:

“Roskill is not expecting new projects to kick in before 2023, making the market potentially tight in 2021 and especially 2022, assuming that its demand scenario ? global resynchronization ? happens....

“The key supply issue is evaluating the upside from China’s **** producers,” Sardain said. “We assume that the **** producers are running close to full capacity.....””

Roskill:

“We expect that prices will remain low in Q1 ? possibly increasing moderately if there is some restocking interest ? gain momentum in Q2 and accelerate in H2 2021,”

Roskill:

“We expect that prices will remain low in Q1 ? possibly increasing moderately if there is some restocking interest ? gain momentum in Q2 and accelerate in H2 2021,”

Correction of typo

“So .... do you wait to buy BMN shares until the share price has risen following v price rises .... or do you get in early, ahead of the crowd, and hopefully get a greater return? Your decision!”

The Vanadium price rise looks like a strong trend upwards.

Some of us may remember a Q1 Update RNS on 14 May. A lot of negative nonsense was written on this bb about that RNS, but whatever your impression of it don’t forget the factual content. This paragraph in particular:

“In Q1 2021 the London Metal Bulletin ("LMB") Ferrovanadium price averaged US$30.9/kgV (Q1 2020: US$26.5/kgV). The current market price for LMB Ferrovanadium is approximately US$32/kgV.”

So at time of publication the V price was $32. Today, just a few days later, and Gambit quotes a source as giving the Europe v price as $ 33.75.

Market analysts seem to expect this trend to continue.

So .... do you wait to buy BMN shares until the price rises filling v price rises .... or do you get in early, ahead of the crowd, and hopefully get a greater return? Your decision!

All just my opinion based upon the evidence. Not advice.

Asianmetal .... Vanadium prices up in China and Europe.

Surely even the mist pessimistic amongst us must be encouraged by the upward trend in the Vanadium price? It can only be a matter of time before increasing profit margins at BMN are translated into rising share price.

http://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

Quote from RNS of 30 November 2020:

Philip Clegg, Portfolio Manager at Orion, commented:

"We are thrilled to get the expansion at Vametco fully funded and to support the refurbishment plans at Vanchem. We are looking forward to partnering with Bushveld as it executes its growth strategy and ongoing advancement into battery technologies."

Partnering Bushveld as it executes its growth strategy doesn’t sound like words from an investor that wants to cut and run. Could of course be wrong and just my opinion.

UKSteve how do you know Orion are going to convert and sell? I fully accept that is possible but equally hasn’t there been discussion here about them being a longer term investor?

Do you have knowledge to the contrary?

Haha pb940 yes just a small point about complexly misleading use of numbers! Well spotted.

Prussel you do sound exactly like some posters just before the big rise in 2017 / 18. You are entitled to your opinion about the future share price, but now that the Vanadium price is on a solid upward trend and that the Vametco plant is running at full capacity then logic tells me that this will soon be reflected in the share price.

As for the cliched expression “jam tomorrow” isn’t that why everyone invests in shares? The future share price growth? Far better to invest when the share price is low rather than waiting until it has already risen.

Bushy top marks from me for being proactive in promoting BMN in order to support your investment.

Regards. Pdub.

Calamari I am glad we agree on something. You are not an expert on Vanadium prices. And may I point out that I did not say that you had claimed such expertise. All I said was that neither of us are experts on this matter.

Your response? Wait until V price is over $40. Ok that’s fine but you may find the share price rather higher by then too, though of course I can’t be certain of that.

My strategy is different. Study what the consensus amongst analysts and industry experts is with regard to direction of travel of the V price and respond accordingly. ie get in early.

That consensus suggests a degree of confidence that the v price will continue to rise in 2021 because that’s what the expected demand supply relationship should dictate.

Personally now seems a very good time to invest in BMN. A rising v price trend but a share restrained at present by external forces and thus cheap. Why wait and potentially pay a lot more? Anyway that is on my opinion and not advice. Everyone must do what they think best.