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Haha good luck.

MIKINAMAN I’m available to ride shotgun if you need a bodyguard. I can pop down the hill on my bike.

If they look dodgy I can bore them to death with one of my long stories about why I bought BMN!!! They are bound to leave you in peace after that.

Hi Taufour. I can’t comment on that as I haven’t really been looking. Could be so.

I noticed today as the buys came in a number of decent sells covered the rise including the two after hours sells. Doesn’t prove presence of seller(s) but certainly fits the picture of an orderly disposal with a minimum sell price (around 15p in this case)

Good luck MIKINAMAN. Hope something good comes out of that.

Taufour I am not aware that anyone has said all round numbered trades are sells.

Possibly the most famous example of large round numbered buys was the famous ‘hoover’ back in 2013/14 ish, which later turned out to be NickDerby gobbling up shares on the way to owning nearly 8% of the company I believe. Taufour that I think was before your time.

Any reference to large round numbered sells only refers to those trades that were sells.nothing more, nothing less. Hope that clears up any doubt.

To me it looks very much like our seller/s need at least 15p ish. Just my opinion of course.

Jelly correct. What was Obtala is now Woodbois.

Jelly, Blackrock and Obtala were two institutions that invested in BMN very early on in the company’s history. For reasons nothing to do with BMN both decided to remove their investment in BMN in 2012/13.

Blackrock made a corporate decision to reduce their involvement in resource companies and BMN fell into that category.I don’t know why they did this but I suspect with hindsight that they saw falling resource prices coming. Whatever the reason the problem was that they dumped those shares on the market in a disorganised manner, much to the annoyance of Fortune Mojapelo I believe.

Obtala also took a corporate decision to concentrate on agricultural investments and decided to offload their BMN shares. However in fairness to Obtala they were negotiating with a third party to take those shares, thus not flooding the market. Unfortunately negotiations bragged on and it became apparent I think that the third party was struggling to finance the deal. Obtala ran out of patience and unfortunately withdrew from the deal and dumped their shares.

The combined effect of these two share sales was to destroy the BMN share price, dropping from around 20p to the 3p to 4p level. Many of us who bought in during that September October November period of 2013 bought at that level so not all bad news!

On 27 November 2013, out of the blue, BMN announced the Vanadium platform and that was the beginning of the switch from iron ore to Vanadium. The rest as they say was history.

My information sources at the time were mostly the press for Blackrock and from RNSs and annual report for Obtala. It was a great lesson in seeing the difference between a larger seller dumping shares and a much more organised release of shares to avoid destroying the share price. I believe we have been experiencing the latter for some time now. That is however just my opinion.

This may explain why I am cynical about comments such as what do they know that we don’t when discussing a large seller. Often the reasons for selling are nothing to do with the company they invested in.

Hope that helps. Please bear in mind that much of the above I am relying on my memory for. I hope the passage of time has not clouded my thoughts.

Jelly I am going to be polite so if you feel the need to respond could you try to do it in a respectful manner?

The whole point is that the share price does NOT tell the story. The real story is the progress being made in delivering the BMN business plan (a plan that as Alfa has eloquently explained is flexible and alters as circumstances and opportunities change).

At the present time I don’t think much of the market either knows, understands or believes the BMN story … but it is very real and much progress is being made to deliver the large low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform. Yes perhaps Fortune could do more to get that story out, but at some point the market will catch up, and I expect to see a significant rebate of the share price. And don’t forget the rising V price means that BMN in Q2 is now very profitable.

And let’s not forget that if the idea that there are one or more significant holders selling is accurate that will artificially suppress the share price.

The idea that they know something we don’t and hence the selling really doesn’t stand up to examination. Large shareholders, much like pi’s, will have their own reasons for selling, as was the case with the two large offloads by Black Rock and Obtala back in 2012/13, reasons that had nothing to do with the performance of BMN. For instance Obtala shifted their investment policy towards agricultural activities, clearly not an area that BMN were involved in.

The above is just my opinion.

I remain convinced that we have one or more large sellers and the trades and sp movement today despite the good news certainly does nothing to contradict that idea.

Can’t be certain of course but assuming this to be the case then the supply of shares is finite and the growing pressure on the sp will eventually push it upwards once supply exhausted … and maybe before!

Just my opinion.

HarChrisI thought your earlier post was a good one, spoilt only by that very strange phrase.

So it seems that in some quarters on this bb if you support BMN you are seeing the world through rose tinted spectacles, if you support one of the most well read and positive contributors to this bb you are deifying them, if you challenge unfounded and negative comments you are the bb police, blah blah etc etc.

Well I say what rubbish!

I consider loyalty to be a strength, being well informed a huge advantage, being prepared to defend your opinions and challenge false information something to be admired and most importantly display a sense of fairness. If others don’t like that or wish to assign silly labels to it that is very much their problem.

Moving on.

“… but the deification is a bit cringey!…” what?

That’s huge way to do it carpfisher. Put money where mouth is.

HarChris I understand what you are saying but please bear this in mind.

Alfacomp has devoted a huge part of his life to supporting BMN, including setting up what must be an almost unique resource on AIM (the Bushveld Perspective). His knowledge and understanding of Vanadium is second to none on here and, being heavily invested (and remains so) he worked hard to defend his investment against the lies and misinformation spread by derampers. This made him a target for these liars as he undermined their negative activity. Having had to deal with some of that cr*p myself I understand how frustrating that must have been. Alfa has dealt with it in his own way which has led to some sharp comments. Whilst it is easy to criticise I wonder how others on here would respond if they had made as much commitment to BMN as he has, and then got subjected to personal attacks from those that seek to damage your investment.

Remember Alfa made his research, knowledge and understanding available to everyone. I have benefitted tremendously from his insights and am very grateful for that. My understanding of the more scientific aspects of BMN I owe in large part to him.

Many of those making comments about him from behind their keyboards have contributed nothing to my knowledge of BMN. Thinking about this purely as an investment … bring back Alfa.

Perhaps cindercone you consider yourself a fit replacement to add to our scientific and BMN understanding? They are very big shoes to step into. You up to it?

What a mean and pointless post wessley. Hope you are proud of it.

Do you have anything constructive to say? Anything at all?

Remember in that forward looking statement BMN are expecting production costs for 2021 to be towards upper end of $20 kgV to $21.30 kgV. Much lower than the Q1 costs.

GLR yes production costs were up in Q1 but this was due to a one off 35 days lost production due to a planned 35 day maintenance shutdown. As can be seen below this significantly reduced production at Vametco in Q1.

However the company has to pay certain fixed costs, irrespective of production. If production is low (as it was) then unit cost of production will be higher. Hence the increased cost of production reported.

The good news is that they have reported production ramping up to normal levels since period end and looking forward are anticipating production costs back down to $20 to $21.30 per kgV.

It is not strictly accurate to say our costs have increased as explained above.

Here are the relevant paragraphs from the Q1 Update. It’s all explained clearly:

“Q1 2021 production of 395 mtV was 40 per cent below Q1 2020 (Q1 2020: 660 mtV) and 44 per cent below Q4 2020 (Q4 2020: 703 mtV) due to lower production as a result of the planned 35-day maintenance shutdown during the quarter.
-  A planned 35-day annual maintenance shutdown was undertaken during February and March 2021 to increase the reliability of critical segments of the plant. All work was completed on time and within budget.

Q1 2021 production cash cost of US$26.51/kgV was 37 per cent higher than Q1 2020 (Q1 2020: US$19.36/kgV) and 27 per cent higher than Q4 2020 (Q4 2020: US$20.90/kgV) due to lower volumes as a result of the planned maintenance shutdown and a stronger ZAR:USD exchange rate.

Vametco has not achieved consistent plant performance during the quarter. The 35-day maintenance shutdown is expected to improve the reliability and performance issues experienced in the past.  However, various workstreams remain underway to enhance and maintain this stability, including maximizing safety and house-keeping initiatives, identifying and solving process system constraints and optimizing preventative maintenance programmes. Management continues to monitor plant performance and keep production guidance under review, however, it is currently anticipated that Vametco production will be towards the lower end of guidance of between 2,700 mtV and 2,850 mtV and the higher end of its  production cash cost (C1) of between US$20.0/kgV and US$21.30/kgV (ZAR320/kgV and ZAR340/kg).”

Nigel, Lindon and Knutsfordnotary have explained final results. The Q2 Update will be more encouraging as it deals with a period of rising Vanadium prices and Vametco in full production following the Q1 shutdown.

As can be seen below there is no way of knowing when Q2 update will be published but Interims are normally at the end of September.

Q2 Operational Update and Interims

2020 - 02 September (Q2), 30 September (Interims)
2019 - 31 July (Q2), 30 September (Interims)
2018 - 22August (Q2), 26 September (Interims)

Hope that is helpful.

Pat I have no particular insight on IDC etc but I agree entirely with your thinking. It seems very likely that with all these connections to SA Government and the strong local content BMN will be benefitting in some way from contracts.

Could be a very exciting part of BMNs future .... but it certainly won’t be the only significant area of BMNs and BEs operations.