Member Info for Pdub

LB I appreciate you don’t see evidence of a seller /s.

However I do.

Note the frequent 50,000 and 100,000 sells plus some much larger sells. Typical pattern of slow feeding a large supply of shares on to market.

It is constant and repeated.

Of course just my opinion.

Interesting thought Fb.

Wouldn’t be the first time that Fortune had surprised the market.

DBush how can you or anyone else be so sure of this?

“… the share price will stay where it is.”

Two factors you didn’t even mention are the large seller / s clearly still active and the rising Vanadium price.

Once the brakes are off the share price when seller / s finished and if the Vanadium price continues to increase, and the evidence suggests that it will, then it is not unreasonable to expect some fireworks with regard to the share price.

Just my opinion of course.

Nice to see the share price rising this morning.

The company also behaved correctly in discussing JSE listing as we now know they were actively working towards this. If circumstances have changed eg Vanchem purchase, COVID, it is hardly surprising that JSE listing was impacted, disappointing as that might be to us shareholders.

Lindon in fairness to the BoD they did not say they would pay a dividend, they said they would announce a dividend policy … which they duly did. It is right and proper that a company should have a policy on such matters.

Under the terms of that policy conditions have not been right to pay a dividend. Not helped of course by first a falling V price and then COVID. I think the sudden availability of Vanchem also impacted on the prospects of a dividend short term.

The company have behaved correctly on this matter.

However by building and expanding a sound business in a growing market, supported by rising Vanadium prices, then a dividend does seem likely at some point in the future. When? When it is appropriate under the terms of the Dividend Policy!

The Company cannot be held responsible for some that misinterpreted the intention that they would announce a policy rather than a dividend.

This point has been debated a number of times over the last couple of years.

So Lindon are you saying main listing in London and JSE? Seems like a good idea.

Sammy the first thing to note is that Fortune uses words very precisely. Therefore in the paragraph below the key expression is the last phrase which indicates that although the pandemic caused delays to BMN’s plans they are now going to refocus on some of those actions eg JSE listing, even though the pandemic is not yet over.

‘Mojapelo however indicates that Bushveld will readdress some of its strategic options -such as JSE listing - “soon” despite the pandemic still being present worldwide.’

I take this as a strong indication that JSE listing is back on the table. Now I expect at some point someone to pop up and say it won’t affect share price. Well how the hell does anybody know that in advance?

One thing is fir sure it will get BMN back in the news …. and for good reasons.

Just my opinion.

OptimisticVic, yes production costs were up on Q1 but as Faramog has said this was due to 35 days lost production due to a planned 35 day maintenance shutdown. As can be seen below this significantly reduced production at Vametco in Q1.

However the company has to pay certain fixed costs, irrespective of production. If production is low (as it was) then unit cost of production will be higher. Hence the increased cost of production reported.

The good news is that they have reported production ramping up to normal levels since period end and looking forward are anticipating production costs back down to $20 to $21.30 per kgV.

So when you point out that Libero didn’t mention rising costs (actually they aren’t rising, they were higher in Q1 for reasons discussed above) in fairness you failed to mention the context, which I would argue could be very misleading.

Here are the relevant paragraphs from the Q1 Update. It’s all explained clearly:

“Q1 2021 production of 395 mtV was 40 per cent below Q1 2020 (Q1 2020: 660 mtV) and 44 per cent below Q4 2020 (Q4 2020: 703 mtV) due to lower production as a result of the planned 35-day maintenance shutdown during the quarter.
-  A planned 35-day annual maintenance shutdown was undertaken during February and March 2021 to increase the reliability of critical segments of the plant. All work was completed on time and within budget.

Q1 2021 production cash cost of US$26.51/kgV was 37 per cent higher than Q1 2020 (Q1 2020: US$19.36/kgV) and 27 per cent higher than Q4 2020 (Q4 2020: US$20.90/kgV) due to lower volumes as a result of the planned maintenance shutdown and a stronger ZAR:USD exchange rate.

Vametco has not achieved consistent plant performance during the quarter. The 35-day maintenance shutdown is expected to improve the reliability and performance issues experienced in the past.  However, various workstreams remain underway to enhance and maintain this stability, including maximizing safety and house-keeping initiatives, identifying and solving process system constraints and optimizing preventative maintenance programmes. Management continues to monitor plant performance and keep production guidance under review, however, it is currently anticipated that Vametco production will be towards the lower end of guidance of between 2,700 mtV and 2,850 mtV and the higher end of its  production cash cost (C1) of between US$20.0/kgV and US$21.30/kgV (ZAR320/kgV and ZAR340/kg).”

So eccles, as Jagadish has pointed out, the share price today is about 4 times what it was in 2015.

Please learn your BMN history in order to avoid such poor and misleading posts.

Really eccles? I would suggest you don’t know your BMN history. Look at the V price compared to share price from 2017 through to 2020.

The connection became real once BMN became a producer in 2017 with the first purchase of a stake in Vametco. Look at how the sp tracked the huge rise in Vanadium price and then the fall.

The disconnect at present is very clearly due to other factors (eg sellers) and the disappointing Q1 results for reasons previously mentioned. Can’t discount shorting and mm manipulation of course.

Watch this space to see the link between sp and vanadium price restored once figures are available to confirm high production, low production costs and of course rising profitability.

Just my opinion.

Most shares that I have been invested in have had stagnant or falling share price when large seller / sellers are offloading. It has felt the same here for months. This bb frequently mentions this. We even know the names of two that have definitely sold millions of shares during that time.

Whilst it is frustrating to have to put up with it, don’t forget that there are still people buying every day, despite what some here would have you believe. And that is without regular official news flow so not entirely forgotten!

Sellers are in possession of a finite number of shares and therefore logic says there should be an end at some point.

We know that the numbers are starting to look very good with increased production and significantly higher Vanadium prices. We also know that the high production costs reported in Q1 were a one off due to the planned maintenance shut down of 35 days and therefore much higher fixed costs per kg.

Q2 will see a return to normal production costs with the restoration of full production and that should indicate profitability at a level that should please any market!

This is just my opinion but there is sufficient evidence to support what I have said, though if course my conclusions are to some extent speculative.

Lucky those who have funds to buy at this price I think.

Agreed Gambit. It seems to defy logic.

I can only think of one reason why this is happening. One or more entities with large shareholdings have been and are still selling. Note the large sells that appear and stifle any rises.

All such activity is finite. There will be an end to it.

Just my opinion

Thanks DBB.

Just read the ATM RNS (I don’t hold but seems like good news) and read this paragraph:

“The Orange Trust (a substantial shareholder in AfriTin, holding 5.9% of the issued share capital of the Company) wholly owns and controls Yellow Dragon Holdings ("Yellow Dragon"),...”

I can’t remember confirmation that Orange Trust owned Yellow Dragon? Interesting considering YD history with BMN. Alfa or anyone else .... thoughts?

Thanks Faramog for posting link.

I agree very positive and nice to get the IDC perspective from the horse’s mouth. It’s taking longer than we had all hoped (and of course COVID hasn’t helped) but I get the impression that things are starting to happen in the energy storage sector in SA. And clearly Bushveld are in big time with the IDC … and that is a huge positive that AIM has simply not understood … YET.

Just listened to a presentation by representative of the IDC. Very interesting. These are my initial notes unedited which others may or may not find useful / interesting or may wish to correct / expand upon.

IDC. Representative:

Very strongly driving localisation

Keen to support clients selling to rest of continent

Supporting battery storage

Some clients at 40% local and even up to 60%

Funds available at 4% Some of the cheapest rates available

Pre feasability funds available.

Once bankable stage funds upto billions of rand
for project construction. Can be debt, equity or both.

Revolving credit facility

Gave non specific example of a mining company wanting to install mini grid!

QA session

IDC with BE leading development of next stage of battery storage from lithium to vanadium. Big investment by IDC!

When you take loans from IDC pay it back. Profits from the project are yours! (Edit: does BE simply pay back the equity when up and running, thus becoming 100% owners of the electrolyte plant? That is what I understand from this presentation)

South African battery sector successful. Making money. Paying back loans!

Apologies for a major typo. Here is the corrected version so please ignore the earlier one:

“Lamps56 I hope you are not using the sold / bought figures published on LSE (or many other sites for that matter). They are completely inaccurate and effectively useless.

When a trade is completed the London Stock Exchange does not tag it a buy or sell. They simply issue data such as date, time, quantity, price and cost of transaction.

Sites such as LSE then automatically compare the trade price to the official mid price at the time of the trade. ie computer generated analysis.

If the trade was below the mid price they tag it a sell (and on LSE colour it red).

If it was above the mid price they tag it a buy (and on LSE colour it blue).

If it was equal to mid price it is indeterminate (and on LSE they colour it black)

Unfortunately this system is completely inaccurate and very misleading. For example look at the trades today between 14.00 and 15.00 hrs today. Sells were at the 15.5p to 15.6p range and buys were 15.8p and above, yet every trade was deemed a sell, including what appears to be a buy of 189,791 shares, simply because every trade was below the official mid price.

LSE is showing a huge imbalance in favour of sells but it is simply wrong. You will probably find a very much closer match between buys and sells today.

I prefer to use sites like shares magazine that don’t identify buys and sells. Makes you think for yourself by studying the actual value of the trades.

Hope that helps.”

Lamps56 I hope you are not using the sold / bought figures published on LSE (or many other sites for that matter). They are completely inaccurate and effectively useless.

When a trade is completed the London Stock Exchange does not tag it a buy or sell. They simply issue data such as date, time, quantity, price and cost of transaction.

Sites such as LSE then automatically compare the trade price to the official mid price at the time of the trade. ie computer generated analysis.

If the trade was below the mid price they tag it a sell (and on LSE colour it red).

If it was below the mid price they tag it a buy (and on LSE colour it blue).

If it was equal to mid price it is indeterminate (and on LSE they colour it black)

Unfortunately this system is completely inaccurate and very misleading. For example look at the trades today between 14.00 and 15.00 hrs today. Sells were at the 15.5p to 15.6p range and buys were 15.8p and above, yet every trade was deemed a sell, including what appears to be a buy of 189,791 shares, simply because every trade was below the official mid price.

LSE is showing a huge imbalance in favour of sells but it is simply wrong. You will probably find a very much closer match between buys and sells today.

I prefer to use sites like shares magazine that don’t identify buys and sells. Makes you think for yourself by studying the actual value of the trades.

Hope that helps.

Thanks Setcentric. Forgot about the Russians.

The vanadium price rises continue across the three geographic regions reported by asianmetal.com (China, Europe and USA)

http://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

Europe rise quoted as 2.88% !