Member Info for PDMSPiper

Exactly Merchant. The only reason the UK went into full lockdown was because media pressure and public opinion, brainwashed by the usual Mainstram media scare stories forced them to abandon the initial Herd Immunity strategy.
The initial strategy was to sheleter the elderly and vulnerable and allow the rest of the population to develop herd immunity but the media, BBC and Sky repeatedly ran with the narrative that it would cost hindreds of thousands of lives and so it was abandoned for the economic destruction we have now.
We are now moving to Herd immunity by stealth where the elderly and vulnerable will be asked to remain at home and the gen pop are gradually released into a level of contagion that the NHS can cope with, where we become infected with the virus, most have mild symptoms and develop antibodies which we will be tested for then registered.
In light of the previous media hysteria this is now highly classified and we kept secret until the tests are ready for sale.
First week in June they will be on the shelves in my opinion. DYOR GLA.

I have been thinking along the same lines Forest. There was incessent bashing and massive media pressure around the previous testing target so I dont think Gov want the cat out the bag until the tests are ready, ie manufactured.
I think Design Freeze has been achieved and the partners are now manufacturing the tests. There have been many clues that point to this, the biggest being the recent Abingdon tweet re their manufacturing capacity and the #RTC tag.
The normal AIM RNS regs on price sensitivity have effectively been trumped, superseded, overruled by the Governments COBR classified information status. The entire project is essentially now "Tight Hole" and we will be informed of the progress when the tests are ready for release. It looks like the Gov want to release the POC tests for maximum impact when the population has developed maximum antibodies which could be 30 days after the peak.
First week of June we will be told that Hundreds of thousands of tests will be available for purchase from Boots and Amazon and Omega will be free to RNS at that point.
This is only my opinion. An opinion formed by piecing together a lot of clues that have popped up over the last few days and weeks.
I have chosen to develop my investment strategy on this basis but everybody else must obviously DYOR. GLA.

@Sleepydave - If Cytiva can not use the Affirmer on their test stick and AVCT RNS said verdict and say........

“The project collaboration with Cytiva will not progress any further but the company are actively looking for other partners....”

What will happen to the AVCT share price Dave?

So the presentations say that AVCT are trying to sell their product into their chosen market and have approached several prospective customers. Well who’d a thought. What a game changing strategy.

Is it true or not that Cytiva have not yet confirmed if the Affirmer tech works on their test stick and that AVCT investors are waiting with bated breath for Cytiva to confirm they will buy the Affirmer tech if it works?
AVCT have had the Affirmer tech for years since their share price was 20p. They have been trying to sell it for years.
The AVCT share price has gone from 20p to £2 on the news that Cytiva will test the Affirmer product to see if it works.
Meanwhile, AVCT continue to try to sell the Affirmer to other customers, as they have been doing for years since the sp was 20p.

Exactly as I understand it also Merchant. I would add that the quest to provide the home Antigen test is also a collaboration between AVCT and Pharma giant Cytiva. Cytiva want to use the AVCT affirmer product on their test stick. The whole project is not the baby of AVCT. AVCT are wholly at the mercy of Cytiva and are not themselves currently carrying out any lab development work to perfect the test. All the work is being done by Cytiva. Cytiva have yet to confirm if the Affirmer technology provided by AVCT works on the test they are developing and if it is a viable or profitable to produce it in commercial quantities. The AVCT affirmer option is just one possible solution of a number of solutions being considered by Cytiva.

AVCT Mcap £202 Million

ODX Mcap £86Million

ODX share price at a £202 Million Mcap will be £1.34.

The fastest vaccine ever made was for Ebola and that took 5 years.
After 40 years of trying and $Billions spent on research, there is still no vaccine for HIV.
Don’t hold your breath on a vaccine.

The purpose of it is as a piece of subtle dog whistle market manipulation. That’s the purpose of it.

Exactly. UKOG was and is an absolute scam of a lifestyle company with nothing of value and no prospects of ever making any money.
The fact that a crock company like that went to £500Million MCap is testament to the power of press coverage in small cap stocks and supports the point being made rather than contradicts it.
Add into that situation ODX, with a mass market product that everybody wants, existing manufacturing facilities, high margin, a product in the centre of the public eye that’s all over the TV and newspapers and you’ve got a perfect storm for a herd Stock buying frenzy. GLA.

UKOG shot up to a crazy £500Million MCap under buying pressure from a herd of mum and dad investors who had read the “Gatwick Gusher” article on the front page of the Daily Fail.
I’m expecting Omega to be on the front pages of many newspapers over coming weeks as the UK RTC nail the worlds best gold standard 99% accurate hand held POC test. The only one in the world. Massive market. DYOR.

Forget the bull**** basis of the story. The Mail Money editors are market manipulators. This is a dog whistle wake up article to the herds of mum and dad investors who read it. The mail arecsaying, “Look at this...”.
It is all publicity. It all gets ODX on the map. Thousands more investors will be looking into ODX this weekend because of that silly nothing story.
Look at the big picture. ODX is still very much a niche play, still very under the radar. That will change soon. This is the first of many articles where Omega diagnostics will be the lead story, especially in Scotland where Sturgeon will be highly vocal in shouting from the rooftops that a little Scottish company is saving the Bacon of Boris and Westminster. It will be all over the newspapers from every angle.
Look at the big picture. All publicity is good.

Yeah, it’s bad now but just imagine the carnage if old Magic Wizard Jezza and Goody two shoes Abbott, the maffamatishun, were in charge. We dodged a bullet there. Well done UK.

Bear in mind that these Elisa lab test kits are more complex than the hand held POC tests, with a higher value per piece and therefore a higher margin value.

Nothing wrong with your numbers for the Mologic Elisa test deal Eva. The company confirmed by RNS that up to 46,000 per day would be made.
However I’d change “up to” for “from”, as I’d say £1 per test would be pretty much a minimum margin, not a maximum so income more like from £16Mill up to £48Mill. In my opinion. DYOR.

Do we have any definitive figures for current handheld POC test manufacturing capacity across all sites. Currently I think....
Alva - c. 1 Million/month (Before recent Rapid lab upgrade)
Littleport - c. 1.4 Million/month (46,000/day)

I’m fairly sure there are other sites. Does anybody have info? I have seen unconfirmed figures of 4 Million/month quoted but am unsure.
I intend to email the company on Monday and request confirmation of current handheld POC test capacity across all sites.
GLA.

There is more than enough of a global market for the Roche lab test, hundreds of millions of Abbott tests and hundreds of millions of Omega tests plus hundreds of millions of tests from other companies who will pop up with their own products over the next few years.
What we’re discussing here is a small company at the leading edge of a product in a market as big as a pregnancy test or condoms or tampons. It’s huge. Of course there will be others getting in but to be in this company here now is an opportunity that only pops up once or twice in a lifetime. But if you don’t see it, you don’t see it, good luck in whatever you do. I’m staying here. Cheers.

For what it’s worth, I don’t see the manufacturing contract with Mologic being of any longevity. A nice short term earner yes.
The Gates foundation are financing a new production facility for Mologic and their tests will be produced there but Mologic are largely a charitable enterprise to serve the third world as far as I can see. Not a competitor to omegas commercial product.
When Mologic switch to their own production. That should free up Littleport to move to profucinvvthe RTC POC tests along with the new expanded Alva facility. In my opinion over the next few years Omega will produce more than enough of these tests to propel the Mcap up way over £300Mill. There is easily an earnings potential of £50-£100Mill pa here and at an attractive PE ratio of 10 then that makes omega an SP ten bagger.
Later this year there will be a massive global recession. There won’t be many safe havens but biotech will be one of them IMO. You just have to pick the quality operations.
If you’re not in biotechs prepare to go to cash again rapidly in the autumn and stay very nimble. GLA.

Snowking; In answer your question, in my opinion all the RTC partners will be making as many tests as their respective facilities are capable of producing and it still will not be enough. All production will be sold and more capacity will be sought. It will be interesting to see how it’s managed. GLA.

Oh yes. All over the shelves in boots and best seller on Amazon. My mother wants an antibody test as she had an awful flu at Christmas, worse than normal, housebound for 3 weeks, so I’ll be in there buying a few on the first day available. I just hope there’s enough for everybody to satisfy demand and they’re not like this year’s Buzz Lightyear toy, everybody wants them but not enough to go round. They’ll limit purchase numbers to prevent profiteering too. Always some prck who wants to buy 50 and sell them on eBay for 5 times retail.

No scratch that. You’re right. I remember now, they said once design freeze is achieved the spec will be shared among all 4 partners for manufacture, so yes, all 4 must be able to manufacture. Stand corrected. Don’t know where I got that from.

“Piper, slight correction i think.... the 4 UK RTC all have manufacturing capacity, Abingdon in Wales, Omega in Scotland, BBI in England and CIGA in Ireland, but it is clearly only going to scratch the surface.“

Merchant. Not that it matters much but BBI are in Crumlin in Wales. Omega have a manufacturing facility in Littleport in Cambridgeshire where they are making mologics Elisa tests so it isn’t as clear cut as that. As far as I know only Omega and Abingdon have the necessary production facilities to manufacture these POC tests but I could be wrong there.
Dibs would be the man to ask. He’s the old hand here with the info, but in any case it’s another clue and hopefully we’re going to get some positive news very shortly.