Member Info for PDMSPiper

In this constantly evolving environment with a big statement from The Prime Minister due on Sunday, newspaper headlines, political statements, statements from unlisted companies not bound by market regs, slips of the lip by professors, tweets of encouragement from Ministers with Rockets on them, TV News pieces, briefings that revolve around antibody testing, the list goes on.
Massive scope for a big scoop of news to slip out over a 3 day weekend. I'm staying in, big holding now. I'll let the traders fight to get back in on thursday afternoon, thats if theres no RNS tomorrow morning.
Its all to play for this weekend.

Exactly, the Consortium is the UK Gov brainchild with their scientific advisors.
Boris wants to announce a great victory for the government and the UK diagnostic industry.
The narrative is “Great British Industry and the Great British Government to the rescue” with a home grown POC test solution that’s the most accurate in the world. A great victory for Boris and lots of political capital in that.
“Roche to the rescue” wouldn’t have quite the same effect somehow.

Yes, as Merch says, different markets but the actual product and margin and manufacturing processes and volumes are so similar that they can be compared from a commerciality point of view and also from the point of view of an investor looking at risk v reward.
I agree that ODX and AVCT are not in direct competition in the same market but as prospective investments the comparison is valid.

AVCT looks like they are in a similar position to ODX in that they are awaiting confirmation of news. They have tied up with Cytiva who want to use the AVCT Affirmer tech on their test strip. Cytiva have been testing if this works. There is still no confirmation if this marriage can be made to work or if it is viable to produce in commercial quantities at scale for profit. Thats the risk.
ODX are similarly waiting on the confirmation of design freeze of the consortium POC test. However, if that doesnt happen ODX are still the only UK based company with MTK manufacturing facilities. There will be much more business with other companies just like Mologic who want ODX to manufacture their product at decent margin. It isnt all about the consortium. In my opinion that makes ODX a more attractive prospect as the manufacturing capability adds significant future reward and removes a lot of long term risk. Happy Days.

How much do JP Morgan have left to sell?

Are they out yet?

I think we could be stuck in a range until JPM are out.

The Chinese are on a food and health drive.

The ODX Food Detective test kit has the potential to be huge.

Right product. Right market. Right time.

I just took another 50,500 shares at 58.9 after selling out of another profitable position yesterday afternoon.

GLA.

The Food Detective product line that was recently approved for sale in China has the potential to be huge. Read what Seeking Alpha has to say about AKER and the Chinese biotech market for MKT’s....

“One thinly traded MTK producing company worth examining further for long-term investment and buyout potential is Akers Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: AKER). It sells for about $1.68 per share after a high of about $5 last July, and revenues are reportedly just $3.09m (FY15). AKER holds $5.6m (mrq) in cash. However, the operating cash flow is reportedly -$5.13.
The primary value to owning AKER stock is the presence it is building in China. AKER is marketing MTKs for diabetic ketoacidosis, a breath ketone test, and fitness. The first has potential for significant sales with China experiencing a 20% overall obesity rate the WHO classifies as a diabetes epidemic. The China Food and Drug Admin. approved AKER's Heparin/PF4 Rapid Assay device for use throughout the mainland. It quickly reveals if patients are allergic to the blood thinner.“

https://seekingalpha.com/article/3943876-rapid-medical-testing-kits-are-huge-market

Appleby Do you get a divvy for spreadbets?

I assumed you had a spreadbet because recently you said you were in at “£20k per point”. That’s a spreadbet then?

Or am I mistaken.

Read this Seeking Alpha piece about the global market for pregnancy test kits and MTK’s in general then multiply the numbers ten fold for the emerging CV19 test kit market....

https://seekingalpha.com/article/3943876-rapid-medical-testing-kits-are-huge-market

Omega are manufacturing up to 46,000 tests per day for Mologic. That’s over 16 million per year at margins of up to £3-£5 per test.

“Once validated, Omega and Mologic will enter into a longer-term supply agreement with Omega manufacturing up to 46,000 COVID-19 tests per day.”

That’s £50Million+ pure profit from this one deal.
At a FTSE 250 attractive P/E10 valuation that deal and income alone values ODX at £500Million and a share price of 330pps.
More deals to come. More manufacturing. More profit.
Most of these labs developing their own tests are basically men in white coats. They have no manufacturing facilities. They’ll be knocking on the Omega door very soon.

Omega Diagnostics could easily be clearing £150Million in yearly profit by manufacturing Covid 19 test kits for not only Mologic but many other companies whose collaboration contracts will now come in.
The profit margin on MTK’s like pregnancy tests is massive and the market generates $Billions every year around the world.
Omega could easily be manufacturing 50 Million tests annually by year end with margins of £3-5 per test.
£150 Million profit at P/E10 is a big Mcap and makes ODX an 10 bagger SP valuation from here.
This is very realistic and by no means a fantasy ramp valuation. Look at the numbers and margin. DYOR.

Pilgrim no it isn’t. This deal with Mologic is totally separate. Mologic are not in the consortium. This deal is purely a manufacturing agreement where ODX manufacture Mologic Elisa tests to their spec for them to supply to the third world.
It doesn’t matter to us how good they are. That’s mologics problem. I just want to know how much Mologic are paying us for making them.
This has nothing to do with the uk consortium poc test we are waiting for

It doesn’t matter how good they are. That’s Mologics problem. All we care about is how much Mologic are paying us for making them and what our profit margin is on each one and how many per year.

I don’t care what the specificity or accuracy of the Mologic test is. Why should we even care?

All I care about is what the ODX margin is on each one of the millions we are pumping out the door.

Investors will be paying over £3 per share for ODX stock before the end of the year and that’s irrespective of any consortium success and irrespective of any UK Gov orders.
ODX will ramp up manufacturing of test kits with many collaborations with others and the margins and volumes will be huge.
It doesn’t matter who’s name or company logo is on the bag, ODX will be making millions of them for sale around the world.
GLA.

Did you see the Telegraph article about the Elisa test?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/covid-19-just-really-bad-cold-happened-had-antibody-test-find/

Never sell any when the scumbags want that much stock because that they means they are confident of taking the price up.

Yes it’s manipulation. Yes they want it for themselves too, but only because they’re confident they’ll be offloading it much higher probably in another rally as they take it up into the close. Price quoted was 60.1p incidentally.

Can get a live trade on HL to sell over £80k of stock.

MMs want it so they have buyers for it.

Who’s got a “new state of the art Elisa” test then?

This lady claims to be one of the first in the world to receive it and is awaiting results.

Is this the ODX/Mologic test?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/covid-19-just-really-bad-cold-happened-had-antibody-test-find/