Member Info for PaulFG

I watched the webinar too and noted the possibility that it could just be a massive water reservoir. until they actually DRILL no idea really what's down there.

BCT - unless there's going to be a massive share dilution (which I don't envisage) I think you're being hugely conservative. Unless Sri Lanka goes into a COVID freeze on economic activity, by Christmas we'll be months away from production.

Colorblind - it can't be any of the pre-existing large holders they are forbidden from selling anything for 12 months since launch. It's very very strange but it does look as though the share price has been 'helped' down to facilitate these large buy orders., if these were sales the sp would have cratered.

Prof C on Stockbox just now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0jTVcdPQZY&t=615s

As someone just tweeted: "...nothing has changed, just the patience of some."

I guess they're going to test the downside a little bit everyday, trying to pick up cheap stock, before the next RNS.

@Impecunious nothing wrong with selling anywhere - to book profits / cut losses - every investor has different reasons and targets (thank heavens) - that's what makes a market. I was simply testing the aggressiveness of the bid. But this is nowhere near my selling range, given what we know to date. Bottom drawer definitely still locked tight!

@Waynej - correct I was just offered 17.90 for 100k, didn't take it, obvs!

It's scary how much this moves on low volume. If a significant find is made my guess is if you're not already long the premium you'll have to pay for the privilege will be huge.

Interesting article on another project clearing the EIA hurdle - can see many parallels with our project:

EIA clears sand mining in north in spite of flagging environmental drawbacks
> Insists issues can be mitigated “without causing irreparable damages”
> EIA carried out by GSMB Technical Services (Pvt) Ltd, a subsidiary company of the Geological Survey and Mines Bureau, the industry regulator
http://www.sundaytimes.lk/210314/news/eia-clears-sand-mining-in-north-in-spite-of-flagging-environmental-drawbacks-436280.html

As to the current price action...bonkers, I've no idea. Have locked the bottom drawer.

Same thing happened one day last week. A 300k buy reported a day later after hours.

I can understand buying at this level, but selling?

Interesting today and yesterday this has popped up just before the close - as if someone is trying to manipulate the settlement price...

@Chirpycheap - ditto

About 28 mins into this video they discuss the general supportive market for mineral sands going forward as they are lifted in the back-end of the commodity bull run:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFYGUxHc2lY&t=1704s

Ever since I watched that interview with the BSE chap, which kind of blew my socks off, I've been thinking about the medium term investment case here, based on BSE. Tell me if I'm way off the mark:
BSE Basis:
- Mcap approx £171m
- Dividend yield approx 20%

ON that basis three scenarios for CMET:
Underlying assumptions:
> buy today at 15p
> Starts calculating yield when they start paying dividends (1, 2, 3...years time)
> based on today's identified resource, so ignoring any uplift for expanding the resource or identification of any other minerals/metals
> based on 171m shares, so I'm ignoring future dilution
> and obviously the project goes ahead

1. Conservative Case
- future mcap 50% of BSE ==> share price 50p
- Dividend yield 10% ==> 5p per share
==> three years dividends will payback your initial investment at 15p

2. Median Case:
- Future mcap matches BSE (£171m) ==> share price £1
- Dividend yield 10% ==> 10p per share
==> 18months (2yrs) to payback initial investment at 15P per share

3. Optimistic Case:
> Future mcap £171m ==> £1 per share
> Dividend yield matches BSE, 20% ==> 20p per share
===> initial investment at 15p per share paid back in FIRST year.

Now I know there are many other factors to consider - market conditions, future dilutions, offtake agreements etc etc but as a very simply back of the envelope calc it must be one of the most tempting propositions in the market today. If I didn't own so many I'd have convinced myself to buy more!

This morning my 81 years old mother asked me about it. Please take that as a sign...

Correct TS - ridiculous for people to be worried that something that hasn't happened hasn't worked!

anyone who knows anything about pump 'n dumps knows this clearly isn't one!

on the podcast remember they were discussing KAV too and a lot of the KAV stuff is jv'd with POW, so essentially 3 companies.