Member Info for PaulFG

@Panda I suggest you widen your reading library and don't confine it to headline grabbing newsmedia.
Even to the basic Investopedia.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/102413/why-and-when-do-countries-default.asp
"The Consequences of Sovereign Default
Intuition suggests countries that default on sovereign debt might have trouble borrowing again and are likely to have to pay a higher interest rate if they get the chance. Empirical surveys, in contrast, have found that defaulting sovereigns tend to regain market access quickly and don't pay a penalty rate. Not everyone agrees that credit investors "forgive and forget." In particular, higher levels of loss appear to lead to longer periods of market exclusion and penalty rates when the exclusion ends.
A sovereign debt default can also impose wide and severe economic costs, lowering output for years after.14 It can also provide overdue relief for borrowers struggling to service unsustainable debt. The relief tends to come in the form of reduced debt service costs following a restructuring rather than a big reduction in the principal owed."

Defaults are not necessarily the worst thing for a country and given Sri Lanka are in talks with the IMF already I would not be surprised to see a major restructuring soon.

What I 'fail to see' is your obsession with this company if I assume you have no holding in it and have continued to post the same thing ad naseam for months.
It is not ideal when countries default BUT it does not preclude inward investments. It would have more impact on the Governments ability to borrow internationally. How many times has Argentina defaulted? Investment continues. I have lived in countries through coups and investment continues.

Do you not understand the difference between Sovereign and Commercial debt? Sir Lanka is not seeking to raise the finance for the project, CMET is,

interesting in their note about CMET this is their equivalent section:
"Outlook and price
Prices for the three key revenue generators at Capital’s Eastern Minerals Project have
been strong over the past three to four years (Figures 18 and 19). We expect continued
growth in these sectors as global GDP expands and as supply issues arise; for example,
from Richard’s Bay, which may place supply constraints. We choose prices at a slight
discount to current spot prices for our long-term analysis due to low stock levels, supply
chain issues and increased global demand. We set our pricing in our fair value DCF at
$350/t for ilmenite, $1,500/t rutile and $1,600/t zircon."

So they've increased the zircon price by $400/t. Given Zircon represents 20% of the project value to CMET that should at least improve our economics in the WHIreland model even before the hopefully expanded resource.

I noticed WHIreland commenced coverage of PYX resources with a note published on April 5th. Same basic structure of our report. https://docs.publicnow.com/viewDoc?hash_primary=C3420D3D1968B4F68C8F6BCF8550727701A9C1DD

I was interested in their outlook for product prices as it might pertain to CMET, this is what they had to say:
"Outlook and price
The price of zircon, the main value component of PYX concentrate, has risen on five
occasions since January 2021, increasing from $1,316/t to $2,305, and then recently in
March 2022, to $3,100/t. With continued high demand and scarcity of high-quality zircon,
prices are expected to remain robust.
PYX’s high-quality zircon is sought by high-tech buyers; the high-tech sector is projected
to be the major source of growth in zircon demand in the coming years.
We set our long-term pricing in our fair value DCF at $350/t for ilmenite, $1,500/t rutile
and $2,000/t zircon."

yup, I have to say I'm impressed with the bid holding up - normally when it's been hit this much over the last week it has collapsed.

I think this is probably one of the most exciting plays at this stage of development in the market. Very professional team too.

another quote to keep us chipper:

"Capital stands out on many metrics: highest-grade resource, highest HMC and vValuable
Heavy Minerals (VHM) resource grades and high revenue per tonne. Eastern Minerals
Project is a small tonnage (at the moment) project which stands out against its peers and
which we expect to rerate as its key catalysts are achieved.
A recent IPO (dual list) in London of PYX Resources (AIM:PYX) with a market cap of £400m,
and which has small-scale, high-grade zircon production in Indonesia, points to the value
given for new producer entrants into the London mineral sands market (Table 2)."

Page 8

I think if they can deliver something concrete this month (IML, Drill Results, DFS) then we will see more money flow in. Any of these could also lead to the successful conclusion of an Offtake (and all that entails - financing etc)
All of this will lead to transformation (as we all know).

We're on the verge of a Domino effect situation.
The rutile resource at SVML has caught the markets attention, it is going to be a mega project BUT it also requires $330m capex to bring to production. SO watch out for an enormous placing - whereas CMET not only only requires just $10m for phase 1 ($35m in total to complete to value added products) though I'd expect some inflationary pressure there (hopefully DFS will detail), the CEO is also on record as not wanting to return to market for this financing.

I know some are concerned about the political situation in SL but actually, and perhaps somewhat perversely, I think the current unfolding situation is a sign of the strength of democracy on the island - compare that to previous decades. As LW has also pointed out it adds to the urgency to start new economic projects (a non-Chinese project that are so unpopular now in the country).

Good they started the EIA proxrss. Took cmet 4 years to pass theirs.

"The MoU is non-exclusive and non-binding and remains subject to negotiation and execution of a definitive agreement to give effect to the MoU."
And for the record it's for 25,000 tonnes.

We all seem to be fairly bullish on the podcast - but then we're long and let's face it we usually are bullish after each podcast.
Let's see...

Interesting Frayne highlighted that it took 4 years to get the EIA passed. Reminded me of the comments by the relevant Minister in SL recently expressing his frustration with how long it took to execute decisions in the GSMB and how it was unacceptable. The recent change of chairman at the GSMB...maybe we can be cautiously optimistic about the IML being announced sooner rather than later?

yes I reckon there isn't really that much of the free float available to float in reality. Like you, I'm looking at the majority of this holding as a pension earner on the dividend capacity.

BUT I suspect at a certain point in development the story might be so good here it'll prove irresistible as a single project company to a takeover bid from the likes of Base or Kenmare.

I hold just under 2%

@justone -sorry mate don't have access to pvt msging here.

We'll see. I think for those of us that are very familiar with this story we probably all came off that podcast thinking IML/Drill results/DFS??? Others not so familiar will have heard all the stuff we are know so well. It just stuck in my head that he mentioned them so little. I mean these are the big price movers here short term and the CEO didn't voluntarily go into it. Could be wrong...

As you pointed out the 7.5p recent placement brigade must have been enticed by something for them to snap up 10% of the sharecap so quickly. We've gone from 7p to 8p bid on what? Okay yes I know very small free float so can move on nothing.
Also SundayRoast/ZakMir offering PR now?

Examine Mktcaps of PYX (£320m), SVML(£197m) , JAY (£104m), undervalued? We are so far undervalued by comparison we're not even on the playing board.

Yup, I was specifically looking for any hints on IML, DFS or even the drill results. I mean I think Frayne mentioned them even less than he normally does, and he wasn't asked too many questions about it either. I mean if I was one of those guys running that podcast I'm looking for info on any upcoming datapoints that have share price implications.

Perversely, I think the fact that the IML wasn't mentioned that much may be because as CEO he can't leak anything that might have a material impact on share price before the RNS. OFC I may just be having Sunday morning optimism...

Otherwise, yup a positive podcast, good new coverage and interesting to hear the panel views after Frayne got off the call. Comparison to other companies with much larger MCAPs and not as far down the road as us may provide short term stimulus to the share price, prior to various key datapoints landing:
> IML
> DFS
> Drilling results
> Offtake.

https://audioboom.com/posts/8057782-the-sunday-roast-featuring-michael-frayne-ceo-of-capital-metals-aim-cmet

As expected Frayne didn't have much new to say, but at least to a different wider audience. The panel observations are probably of more interest
- asian urban populations projected to increase by 1bn
- mcap comparison with JAY & SVML both over £100m

'next week' - jeepers that's the most optimism I've seen on this BB for quite sometime.

Frayne has whittled my enthusiasm down to 'BY JUNE'
BUT I'll happily be proven wrong.

Interesting he's going on the Sunday Roast - perhaps they actually believe that the IML/Drill results/DFS are close to being announced? Bit of preparatory PR?

Ah ok there's been a tweet from ZaksCafeSUnday Roast: https://twitter.com/RoastPR/status/1509859999346053124

CMET is being featured on Sunday - hopefully some good scrutiny coming Frayne's way.