Member Info for PaulFG

Rather random/bizarre tweet from CMET @ midday: https://twitter.com/MetalsCapital/status/1509848409645142019

"Following the grant of the EIA in November 2021, we are working closely with the Sri Lankan government authorities in order to obtain the IML, which will enable #CMET to move swiftly into commissioning the mineral sands concentrator to enable production."

"WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund will initiate discussions with Sri Lankan authorities on a possible loan program in coming days, IMF spokesperson Gerry Rice said on Thursday (Mar 31), as the Asian country seeks to stave off a severe economic crisis."
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/imf-start-talks-sri-lanka-loan-request-coming-days-2599856

Hopefully, this all gets sorted out pretty quickly now. Civil order is important.

Pressure taken off the bid with the exit of frustrated PIs (can't blame them) but even with the MMs loading up on cheap stock over the last few days you can see how jittery the offer remains, backing off significantly this morning on fairly light buying.

I guess April will be telling.
Seems all the original investors are still fully loaded and have not sold any shares. Got to figure they probably know more than we do.
The GSMB appears to publicly under pressure to get moving, with regular articles now in the Sri Lankan press and key changes being made at the top.
If Frayne went all the way to SL just for that EL yesterday I'd be both surprised and disappointed.

Hopefully backlogs at testing facilities are being 'cleared' this year so fingers crossed results from any drilling might come through a lot sooner.
Of course it all depends on when the drilling takes place, given they've earmarked funds in the recent placing for this round of drilling I'd hope Stockwell agrees a plan of attack with GSMB before he departs SL.

interestingly I think the only thing they DIDN'T mention in the latest project update was more exploration licences.

Lol, @J-F, I'm finding it increasingly difficult to give Frayne the benefit of the doubt, but I would hope that he didn't travel all the way to SL just to sign the EL, given the rarity of his presence in-country.

Got a nasty feeling, LW, FRAYNE no longer in SL as they're only mentioning Stockwell onsite this week in the tweet, https://twitter.com/MetalsCapital/status/1508729563395891203

My initial reaction is that I hope this isn't the reason Frayne went to Sri Lanka. Nice though it is we need better news out of SL.

Hi LW
Yes, on the country risk I'm not very concerned as I notice that SL authorities are now talking about a World Bank Loan once they confirm an IMF bailout (all not done yet of course) and India is really stepping in to help out the country (40k t of fuel, $1bn line of credit etc.). Slightly more worrying is that China is not rushing to restructure their massive loans to SL (unsure how much politicking that is given SLs recent cooperation with the US to help secure international waters).
However, you can see if there isn't a bailout there will be at a minimum logistical difficulties in securing even basic materials like fuel in the country which will have a knock on impact to the execution of a business that requires fuel to operate...I don't want to overstate it, but you get what I mean.
AND then I have to ask EVEN if there is a default it's not Armageddon - I mean look at Argentina, it seems to default about once every decade...

On the IML, I agree I am not overly concerned although I note the Minister's comments recently: “There are a large number of places with valuable land resources. But they cannot be used properly. The reason is that the people have been resettled in those places without looking into the land resources. Now the people living there cannot be evicted. Nor can they take advantage of the valuable earthly resources that lie within the earth's interior. Also, large buildings have been erected in some places. It would be good if environmental assessment reports also focus on the valuable geological resources in the interior of this earth. Today, due to these actions our country has become a beggar while standing on a treasure.” ( http://www.colombopage.com/archive_22A/Mar25_1648148897CH.php ) One can almost slice the frustration of the politicians with the bureaucrats.
A little concerning, but allayed by Frayne's comments in a podcast that most of the land under CMET's exploration licence is owned by the state and the area doesn't appear to be populous. AND I agree 100% that Frayne's appearance, finally, in country could be seen as a major positive in getting this over the line. Especially, if Damsila can parade him with the locals and the GSMB can impress the landowners, getting them over the line to finally issue the IML.

I would also expect an announcement at the end of this visit about planned drilling for this year as they've highlighted that in the current RNS.

The biggest risk, as Frayne has said, is just that things will take longer.

As I see it here we have basically two main risk categories:
1. Country Risk;
2. Project risks

1. The current risks for Sri Lanka seem to revolve around the state of the economy and the national currency reserves. India have granted SL a $1bn immediate line of credit, to keep the lights on so to speak. The Chinese are mulling rejigging their financial package - and given their level of investment in the country it is in their interests. The IMF is now in discussions with SL government to provide a bailout and avoid default. SO I'm cautiously optimistic this will be sorted even if it's somewhat painful for the SL government to swallow.

2. The project risks as I see them revolve around the granting of the IML (if and how quickly this will be granted) and the economics of the project (can the resource be materially expanded, can finance be raised to develop, how quickly can construction start so we're on the road to production and revenue generation). The company sounds upbeat on the IML progress and since achieving the approval of the EIA most analysts seem to agree, so it comes down to how quickly the IML will be granted - perhaps, like LW, I'm reading yesterday's RNS with rose tinted glasses but I think CMET is dropping a major hint there.
The expansion of the resource then is pretty important to attract long term institutional investment. I think the current resource is enough to get us up and running, attract immediate finance and customers. I think Frayne has also dropped hints in the RNS that he understands this as they also mentioned he's there with the Tech Mgr to identify how to proceed with drill targets this year.

Therefore, for me the two key things I want to see soon are the IML and drill results (I know, we all do). When we receive clarification we will see the SP move.
We all know this and hopefully April will bring answers. Not only is Frayne under pressure but the SL authorities are also under pressure.

LW, not for the first time, our thinking is aligned.

I hear ya, LW, I think the thing here is expectation and reputation. Frayne has not done himself any favours by essentially saying this stuff each and every time they've gone on the record - Feb podcast in hindsight was disastrous.

The only difference I'm seeing here, and the reason why I see the current RNS in a positive light is the fact that it states Frayne and the Tech Mgr are/will be in SL this month. I can only see this as actively progressing the timeframe in the granting of the IML - an occurrence which would most probably warrant the attendance in person of the CEO in Sri Lanka. (once again, he said hopefully)

I cannot disagree with the way you see things, LW, the unfortunate thing for some shareholders is that this has been the same message for endless months. Hence, the selling today.

it is unfortunate that shareholders are exiting now as we appear to be nearing the light at the end of the tunnel, but the sales are being absorbed by the market without the bid collapsing as usual (good sign? / more straw gasping?)

have to say in broad agreement with Ihowells, Frayne must have known as much when he conducted that interview in Feb to promote the Placing.
Best thing here is confirmation that Frayne is ACTUALLY doing something and got his ass to the project. (but DRJJ had told us that already)

DRJJ
Just saw website, nothing new there...yet.
Well if you tell me you somehow discovered Frayne is in Sri Lanka I believe you.

Good to see you here again DRJJ. In your tweet you say Frayne is in SL. How do you know?

I take your point Greeneyed, that's the thing with TA, you can interpret it to fit whatever scenario you want.

For the record, as I said before, I do really like this company and the outlook.

The IMF are stepping in and India has extended them $1bn credit.
Not worried.

Greeneyed - not sure how you see this is in an uptrend?

There is basically a downtrend channel form Sept 2021. RSI does indicate it has been oversold but it can remain oversold or the RSI can even improve if it just trades sideways or awhile. The MACD is on the cusp of a bullish cross, but it hasn't yet.

BUT technical analysis is only really useful for highly-liquid, large cap, high-trade volume stocks, so I wouldn't place a lot of emphasis on it when it comes to minnow companies like CORA.

What is more applicable here is fundamentals and market sentiment.