The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
All those required elements , now IN PLAY.............this is the time to accumulate for a big winner, not just another spike from sub 0.1p ACTIONS driven , blah talks on talks and not trading. GLA ππ€π²π€π€π€π€π€π€π€π€π€π€π€π€π€π€
Even the bid round all 2 1/2 years worth of it had FA interest, only 9 bids on 7 of the 18 licenses, TL in its usual over the top excitement called it a great success ,hindered by covid etc, total β½βΎβ½πππππ's, during the same period, Nigeria announced 57 licences , with over 1,600 bids.
Trade , Yeo ho ho and co, have snail paced it all since the start , knowing full well, without a change in the area , NOTHING is going to happen, so like Woodside's Sunrise gas valued at $0.00c, they have talked about talks since September 2021, the most recent , is a progression after all this time, talking finance and rigs etc, as for the first time ever, a chink of light, that TL really will be open for business soon (taken them 22 years)
e.g. the seismic, we will have early 2020 for processing - tumbleweeds eventually got a partial license re run late 2021, meanwhile Woodside did their entire 3d 3200 sq km in a few hours of a DAY (processing) in December 2020 press, with the now widely advertised AWS assistance, equivalent to a stack of laptops 4.2 miles high. Mark the then Woodside CEO
said it will now take 6 months to 2 years off their projects developments. Baron snailed a partial as it was in no hurry, without other elements in play, it was never moving. π€
0.07 had nothing to do with it, its all about news flow and value inflection points, way undervalued if Chuditch gets the nod be it sitting at 0.07 or 0.2p, that's just a trading , traders playtime thing, it spiked a gazillion times 0.05 to 0.125 long before Chuditch even came on the scene, on the prospect something MIGHT HAPPEN, its always about MC , old activity and sp's worthless to an Investor , one around for the journey , not just the next trader/skimmer/scalper spike.
When this journey begins, all old prices will be long forgotten, as said before break , 0.17p the REAL high, this time its 0.26p and EVERYTHING becomes BLUE SKY, when NEWS leads the way , never trading patterns, our catalysts remain as they have been for 4 years (the seismic etc was mute, all catching up with OLD DATA and snail paced, partial)
Never been a PERMITTED route to market - That looks like changing soon, at last, Natarbora or Metinaro, the latter needed by 2025/26 , be pretty stupid of TL not to use their own local Gas (cheaper) than bring in expensive imports to the P.I.T. Gas/LNG plant and 90 day tank farm that will feed their 3 being converted to Gas power stations (2025 parliament statement target, probably slipped a year now)
Sunrise - Consortium Build (no longer talk about ) Natarbora/Beaco plan?
Metinaro - Who can supply by timeline , Chuditch with new owner can.
China - Waiting in the wings to assist TL office of Strategic planning and Infrastructure.
All signs , this is not another LITTLE SPIKE coming but the long awaited , ACTION over endless talk, we do not even need our FPSO plan to get a first ever green light, if Aus/TL agree to build, we already have ONE permitted route to market for the new owners, looking to JV/Sale, the green light would be better, potential earlier production and revenues elsewhere be that Metinaro or other. π€
It's why we have never moved to a realistic price for our asset, as said Dunrobin more than covers, reserves in the ground NPV10 Regional risk rating factors. Chuditch basically remains valued at zilch, just like Woodside have G.S on their books at $0.00c.
Their issues resolved and value returns to both, Woodside had a few hundred Million on their books for 33% of Sunrise, before starting to mark it down , year on year until 2020 $0
Others MC's rarely collate to another, its many factors and likewise rarely the poo etc, reserves in the ground valuation, regional risk, other assets/production/revenues/debt etc, one in the Ukraine, long before the troubles, once revealed had over Β£50m CASH on its books, that alone would have warranted an sp of 52p, it still kept trading 8p - 12p most of the next year, in production and no debts, in our case the market after all this time, would go banana's on a well priced and % retained on Chuditch, as it should on factors beyond Barons control, a valid processing path being the BIGGY π€
5tcf 850mbo/e but shell had that and more back in the 90's, Boil have only concentrated on the CH1 wider area, with its studies and partial license seismic re run , the basic 3.5 is 595mbo, or $595m for a fire sale $1 a barrel. (75% ours) that's the right price , Yeo ho no ,is referring to as a base line low, the Industry will be well aware of the previous ownership and their studies of the wider license, they know they will be getting far more for their buck, on the basis of Boils snail paced catch up dev.
As said before the other major rise, on the many spikes 0.05-0.135, the magic number then was 0.17p then blue sky, spot on the money, this time we break 0.26p HIGH (MC sp worthless) and that's when we go who knows where, with a following herd wind (reddit crew etc) last time it cracked 0.17 and doubled, so target this time on good news 0.52p, god only knows where, on GREAT news
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Do not forget , even Yeo ho ho, quoted depending on various factors, Chuditch worth 1.7p to 3.7p to Baron (yes whole pence)
Have said for 4 years, since related Dr Butlers on the two boards (Boil/Sundagas on TL 2016 No tender award Chuditch November 2019 for services rendered ) go us into this potential monster, nothing would happen , until the local issues resolved and the area opens back up, well now it IS !π€
Lao Hamutuk - Last week , Australia and TL in accelerated talks to bring G.S. to Natarbora (vice Beaco change)
China - Two weeks ago sign MOU with TL Ministry of Strategic planning and infrastructure(Metinaro/Natarbora)
Baron/SG, after saying in talks since late 2021, now saying in advanced talks over finance/drilling (change)
As said many times, we do not care what it is, to bring a big JV/Sale , all we need is a VALIDATED route to market, Natarbora/Metinaro or a first ever YES by TL Gov to something else (Darwin/FPSO/FLNG etc) and the market correction not spike, will be massive. π€
Woodside still has Sunrise on its books at $0.00c, having marked down year on year , until 2020 when made $0, its gas gets value returned , our likewise valued at zilch (all stranded) gas will also be finally given some value. Dunrobin more than covers the current MC, our 66mb at $0.25c per barrel $16.5m alone.
As said for 4 years, once it breaks, MINNOW holding a MAJOR's asset ππ€
Not a bagger, a Multi Mega Bagger, remains in waiting π²π€π€π€π€π€
That $65 Billion aka Β£54 Billion, was pre the major gas price boom that has occurred since.
The $650m aka Β£537.5m was a bargain basement pick up by Timor Leste, after Shell waited 9 years to exit, after having its FLNG plan killed by Horta then PM and Gusmao Darwin in 2002, when facilities for Sunrise more than half built. Shell offloaded Chuditch to Mitra, when denied a second time with Sunrise 2008/9?. π€
Always about MC never sp , unless a visitor , trader, skimmer scalper, sp for the now, MC for the TRUE history.
Achievable MC , Divided by CURRENT share base = potential sp
Now do you think , say on a sale of our entire 75% Chuditch, Baron worth Β£50m or Β£500m+, that's your target.
After waiting years to depart Shell/Conoco Phillips JV within the Sunrise JV, sold their combined 56% to Timor Leste
loan from SWPF to Timor Gap NOC for $650m aka Β£538m, so what is our 75% worth to a returning Major/Tier1 ?
Sunrise 5 TCF was also valued at the 2021 Conference at over $65 BILLION , over its expected 30 year production cycle again how much is our 75% of 3.5 TCF with much upside (Shell had bigger 5tcf plus oil/condensate field/s to the South West in the 90's full license) worth to the eventual REAL Developer of Chuditch ? π²π€π€π€
That's the RIGHT PRICE , the ceo was expressing in his presentation earlier this year........GLA ππ€
Our record high is now after the most recent dilution around 0.26p based on the Β£49m Market cap high Boil reached early this year, old sp's worth used toilet paper after each dilution, only MC High remains valid, so our initial target on news is breaking 0.26p and then seeing how much , new BLUE SKY rise it brings......... GLA ππ€
Chuditch was named by TL as part of its Beaco studies (Baron talking fpso at the time) , has to be in the frame for both projects, 2025/26 Metinaro supply for Domestic needs plus 90 day emergency storage and Beaco/Natarbora 2030'ish
Maybe even a split and part of both projects, FPSO 1 - 3 wells early doors (Metinaro) and full FFD 26 to 28 Wellheads, like Shells plan for Sunrise, with a nice easy tie-in to Nararbora, if as L.H NGO are now reporting, once built. GLAπ
Ministry of Planning and Strategic Investment, is the one that signed an MOU with the China State Development Corp, 3 days before the broader agreement signed by Xi and Gusmao, it also is in charge of the major projects, Beaco which according to the local NGO Lao Hamutuk has been replaced by Natarbora Gas/LNG Export faciities and Metinaro, the P.I.T which includes Gas/LNG Import facilities and 90 day tank farm. (Chuditch could be in the frame for either)
The Strategic Development Plan 2011 - 2030, basically TL developing ALL its other Sectors , using Oil revenues/Taxes built up in its Sovereign Wealth Petroleum Fund, which pay 85-95% of every annual budget , most years. Fund built from revenues obtaned from Kitan (oil) and Bayu-Undan, both now depleted. New revenues urgently required, or they are broke by 2030 but a recent statement , we could make it to 2034, with further budget cuts.
So, in the doo dah, unless they get things moving NOW ! π€
Local news this past week , Australia/Woodside/TL in ACCELERATED talks, to fulfil TL 20 year wish list, to bring Greater Sunrise to Natarbora (replacing Beaco ) which is a nice straight line from Chuditch for a tie-in and close to Betano Oil refinery, where I presume the 240mb condensate of Troubadour (G.Sun Trou/Sunrise) will end up.
Metinaro FID and Chuditch drill or drop extension announcements , both made around the same time , for Q4 2023. Chuditch FPSO with the right JV/Sale partner, could easily make TL's deadline for 2025/26 to supply its 3 being converted to Gas power stations from its Gas/lng Imports fac, Metinaro. π€
The Political Review Committee will be chaired by the Prime Minister and is also composed of the Vice Prime Ministers, the Minister of Finance, the Minister of Public Works and the Minister of Planning and Strategic Investment. The Secretary of State for Equality and Inclusion, the President of the Institute for the Defence of Children's Rights and a representative of the Timor-Leste Disability Association will also take part as observers in the meetings of the Political Review Committee. The meetings of the Political Review Committee will take place from October 24th to November 9th in the Auditorium of the Ministry of Finance.
The Political Review Committee must ensure the feasibility of the annual plans of the services and entities of the public administrative sector and their conformity with the national priorities defined on the basis of the Strategic Development Plan 2011 - 2030, the Government Programme, the medium-term plans and annual plans of the services and entities of the public administrative sector, and any other political and strategic documents of the Government. The allocation of budget appropriations to each service or entity must be in line with their annual plans and respect the expenditure ceiling previously established for each title.π€
soon be another attack on 0.04p james, just need lard ****, to get some news thrown in with actions, not more words about future actions again !, today another visit towards 0.03p, tower has had more, rise and fall than strictly come dancing this year, sadly mostly confined to that tight band 0.032p-0.042p.
jesser, the 5th of november is looming, go on give us some fireworks !!! π₯π₯πππππ
Be nice to thinks so but unlikely, Uplands big asset is Sarawak, not the North Sea, just like our Chuditch volume/scale and still upside, hence their turning down 14p offer, which to Baron share base would only be about 0.75p, a slap in the face for the scale and potential , of both Sarawak and Chuditch. π€
On the potential new site for the Gas/LNG Export refineries and port, Natarbora is a lot closer to Betano Oil refinery, which I presume , the Troubadour side of Greater Sunrise will end up 240mb liquids/condensate. Or who knows, maybe Woodside and TL further studies have revealed a better crossing point over the Timor Trench (2800-3500 and moving seismic) BUT it does make a nice straight line from Chuditch to the new location for a tie in, TL 2021 studies based on Chuditch , Kelp and Sunrise ALL feeding Beaco (now Natarbora is seems) together if/when open for business. π€
Could they now be looking at Chuditch for both projects, small scale FPSO initially for Metinaro , then full 26/28 wellhead FFD like Sunrise via a pipe tie-in ? π€