The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Would not put any short term time table on things, the ceo at Trp has been saying a rig coming for 3-4 years, for its Cameroon campaign, Boil first said in talks Q3 2021, everything has been snail paced, let just hope the wait has been worth it, with a REAL JV , NOT a Mikey Mouse fellow minnow jv, that only gives dilution and little reward to Boil, both then looking to sell after the successful appraisal well, to a Tier1/Major.π²π€
As you can see, if Chuditch was taken as the new HUB, pipe south and run parallel with the current now output line all the way to Darwin , would negate the Tiwi Courts Blockage, allowing their planned production from Barossa/Evans by 2026/27 The Santos ceo , recently stated over $400m still set aside on the books for the new dual pipeline project and still plan for Barossa production.
So many a possibility , just need TL to support one, or agree to build Beaco/Natarbora? and value returns to our and Woodsides gas, currently G.Sunrise on its books at $0.00c as NO HOME to go to, equally Dunrobin 66mbo more than covers our current Market Cap, so likewise currently valued at ZERO ! π€
oz/woody/tl crack the code and Woodside 34% of G.Sunrise returns to the hundreds of millions it use to be, before being marked down year on year until 2020 written off $0.00c (Baron got a first stake in Chuditch 2020, likewise never valued)
As has been talked about, Santos new pipeline from Barossa, to Include Evans Shoal (ENI) production via a new pipeline to Darwin (old Bayu-Darwin converted to output and carbon/wastes only, that plan blocked by the Tiwi Islands (the big lump offshore , North of Darwin on that same map. We still have the possibility , the Santos/ENI/SK Koreans JV, will move that planned hub from Barossa, to Area R Santos, Area P ENI (either side of our license) or even look to take out Chuditch for its replacement HUB to Darwin (TL Permitting) and pipe Barossa and Evans Shoal west to the new HUB, chud/otherπ€
Https://wp-baronoilplc-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/06/Timor-Leste-Regional-Map.png
Proposed new site per L.H NGO, Natarbora on that map would be, come down from Dili and on the South Coast you will see a small pair of bumps on the coastline, that is where , Suai oil and gas support port, Betano oil refinery and the new Natarbora would all be located. As posted pretty much a nice straight line from Chuditch , through Kelp to Natarbora . π€
They have had conferences annually since 2020, which have so far sparked ZIP, sector still sits on the fence, until the local issues become resolved/clear and TL back up others plans, not just their own, as it's been for 20 years+
Lao Hamutuk local NGO, just over a week ago reported, that could be coming close, with Australia and TL, now in ACCELERATED talks, on bringing Greater Sunrise to Natarbora (not the 20 year Beaco location) that is a massive switch, if true and begs a massive question WHY ?
It also brings forth the possibility, as per their own studies Q3/Q4 2021 , Chuditch , Kelp 14.5 tcf and Sunrise , that plan in still in play for the new Natarbora site, also giving the possibility of a short straight line pipe tie in for both Chudich and Kelp to intersect the G.S new path pipeline, or even it , to tie in to that line from Chud-Kelp-Nat.
It also raises the possibility Chuditch early development FPSO (1 or few wells) could then later switch to a similar plan to Sunrise FFD 26-28 Wellheads (Shell plan 2001/2 2008/9) also raising the possibility, Metinaro Gas/LNG Imports fac/tank farm may revert to co-location with the (LH NGO) Natarbora Gas/LNG Exports refinery fac's and port, as it was originally, in the plans for Beaco, which would be a much shorter shipping of Chuditch Gas, than sailing East and round the Island to the Northern Project Metinaro, near Dili. ? π€
Those sorts of permits are in the bag, Sundagas set up and continue to train the local TL industry, its the big one, will TL give a first ever PERMIT for us to FPSO/Other, or Gusmao/Horta, still on the 20 year+ ALL comes to the island ship. They should, Metinaro needed 5 years before Beaco/Natarbora, making Chuditch the best game in town, to supply their own domestic needs via its FPSO plan.
Still qualifies for Gusmao Parliament statement, if we FPSO and supply the Island with the production, it still comes to the Island π€π
As RATR posted, several potential catalysts pending before eoy, still can't believe the Dunrobin JV has not reported any serious nibbles yet, over 200mbo with upside, is a tidy revenue stream, for whoever develops it, FFD etc, long after Baron will have departed.
The Metinaro one is a big project for the Timor Government, Gas/LNG Import facilities and 90 day tank farm, raised in Parliament as a priority , due to failings during covid/horrendous weather damage, with Sunrise set in stone for Beaco or as the local NGO Loa Hamutuk said recently Natarbora has replaced Beaco and Australia and Timor Leste, now in advanced negotiations to bring Greater Sunrise to Natarbora (further west on the South Coast , near Suai oil and gas support port and Betano oil refinery, leaving CHUDITCH as they only other advanced license in the TL T/Gap portfolio.
Still say it would be crazy , for them to go elsewhere, again in Parliament PM stated, conversion of their 3 Diesel power stations by 2025 with our own Gas/LNG Import facility, will save millions per annum off the budget, Chuditch via Boil/SG FPSO plan, is ideally suited to supply cheap local Gas to Metinaro/Power stations, for Domestic supply and Emergency storage.
Posted a few times, when TL announced Metinaro , 2 major studies ongoing and a final investment decision (FID) will be made by the end of 2023 (Q4 = now) Baron also announced our drill or drop (summer 2023) had been extended to December, COINCIDENCE ????, I am hoping not, Sundagas A.B. and co have been at the heart of the Islands own industry development since 2016, long before being non tender awarded Chuditch (Nov 2019) as the showcase for the bid round launch, or Boil taking an initial stake , after a failed rto attempt (Jan 2020) π°πππβπ¨π
BRI going green
At the forum, Xi announced that βgreen developmentβ in the BRI would be a major step in the initiative, and early analysis has noted that the BRI will now be βsmaller and greenerβ. While several renewable energy projects were announced
Australia announced a new pathway to permanent residency for citizens of the Pacific island countries and Timor-Leste. This is something China would never be able to offer the Pacific and addresses a genuine policy want from countries in the region.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/world-over-china%E2%80%99s-belt-and-road-initiative-207065
The old empire strikes back ππ
Once sat in GUN pre consolidation, when in the 0.03p range, every single trade for 3 months was Best Guessed SELL, around 30 of them my accumulating trades, sat in the same bid/ask all that period 0.03p 0.0375, every trade 0.315-0.325p all below the Algo's guesswork mid point.
The only one's you ever know for certain, are those followed by a TR1 or more and your own trades. ππ€
Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/BCE/beacon-energy-plc/company-page
Priced to be a sell, you pay a premium to prevailing prices for a LRGS(how they use to be flagged on the real LSE until
recent site upgrade) large delayed volume trade and so with prevailing prices at the time its a SELL.
mm's not in the business of mass accumulation at a higher price than the II is paying, every trade has a margin and a fee and many would have been required to offset a 60m Β£87k trade.
for e.g. Maurel Prom , when dog of the decade UKOG flew from ground floor to almost kiss 12p, it was after 3 days of filling 3 extra large trades, each printed 3 days later, each at a 25-30% premium to the HIGHEST prices paid on each of the 3 days in question, once filled it went off like a rat up a drainpipe. The bigger the trade and Β£87k for an oiler is not that big
the larger the premium is the norm, not a discount. ππ€
Dummies are only a guide also, often if you get a good/great price quote, try to execute it, often returns OOPS, price no longer available, worth plugging away, I have often bought on many shares at/near bid price and likewise sold on/near and even above the listed Ask, when a share in vogue.
The labels buy/sell/unknown are all GUESSES and zip to do with the market/mm's, just 3rd party sites like this one, any price even the limits often mislabelled, so little point arguing as all you are doing is guessing like the poor dimbo mid priced algorithm this lse and other 3rd party sites, already GUESS on.
Level 3 users, will have often seen , say 6 mm's one at low and max limits, with 4 around the mid price, the two selling being below the mid and the two buying above it (all wrong side of the guessing mid point) so no end of TRADES, which is all the Worlds markets prints (seen as all being a buy and a sell) are incorrectly guessed in both directions , on many many trades and shares daily. ππ€
The Government, following article 7 (6)(d) of Law no. 10/2005, of August 10th, as amended by Law no. 3/2016, of May 25th, has decided to grant a day off to all employees, agents and workers of the direct administration of the State, whether central and decentralised, and in the bodies of indirect administration, for the entire day of October 27th, 2023.
Low level JV for first drill only dilutes us, as the other minnow, will also be looking to cash in after the drill, returning Major or still present Santos/ENI , or the new Woodside/Japan JV and its a whole bigger ball game, especially on a Sale now, Boil have less than zero interest in production, why dilute further if they can turn it around , as Yeo ho ho said "the right price""
Gusmao even stood up in Parliament back then and declared , its all ours, it will all come to the Island (oil and gas) Betano Oil and Beaco Gas/LNG, the later now scrapped in favour of a new site Natarbora according to the local NGO Lao Hamutuk last week who also said , end game in progress, with Australia/Woodside and TL , now in ACCELERATED talks to bring G.S to Natarbora, which can only be good for us, its location would be a short straight line tie in for Chuditch, which when Boil said after reviewing several options, we have decided on FLNG for Chuditch , days later TL announced their new studies for a Beaco/Sunrise HUB (Multi field , old studies based on just G.S.) naming Chuditch , Kelp and Sunrise , to all be coordinated development and ALL feed Beaco together once built.
Until they stop speaking with forked tongue, the doubt remains, not just for us but Santos/ENI/Korean JV , who also want a new pipe to Darwin for their own facilities, still have not signed off on Area R and P, which was due Jun/Jul 2022
they have their own refinery at the Darwin complex , now Idle, after the end of Bayu production.
That statement in Parliament by Gusmao also included his declaration as a new DECREE LAW.
We only get the Multi Mega bagger, with CERTAINTY in place and Boil/SG like Shell and the other majors that departed frustrated, can't give that yet, just a plan of what they would like to do, until TL comes clean, are other options going to be PERMITTED this time, or is it still all roads and pipelines lead to the Island of Timor.
News should give us a lift but until the DOUBT removed , will have to settle for just a multi bagger πππ€£π Best option for Baron an investor in assets , not an oiler, is TL make any available , Shell come back to claim their balls , Sunrise and Chuditch and Boil depart with a large shareholder dividend and a remaining war chest, to fund their next items in their investing early stage development portfolio......... GLA
Boil can say what they like, has zero validity until TL give us a home or a permit, Shell had both Darwin and FLNG turned down , while holding a valid PSC and at the time TL held 0% of Sunrise, just a territorial right and rights to a taxation split
50/50 with Australia, more recently Australia tried to get it moving sweetened the deal with 70/30 or 80/20 depending on venue BOTH in favour of TL, TL rep came out of the meeting stood on the steps and announced to the press, it will be coming to us very soon and we now get 80%, only the taxation was discussed.
Shell/Conoco/Woodside said a lot of things, all blocked, until we see a PLAN to build , or get that first ever YES from TL for something else, all remains shrouded in if/but/maybe and its why its taking so long, the wider sector mistrust TL. Only they can fix what they BROKE, Gusmao PM when Darwin denied (Tasi Mane his project since 2001) and Horta denied the FLNG PM then, after the 2022/2023 elections, the band is back together, one as PM the other as President π
When a share in vogue , or a distressed seller in play, I have often Bought on/near Bid price and likewise Sold on near and even above the listed ask (rarely but happens) , any price could be anything, all guesses if you see a label, market does not use them, as they see all TRADES as both a buy and a sell, eg you the buyer/via bank/broker, from floor trader MM's etc the seller, vice versa and any other combination you would like to add.
Its why on many a share daily , the unresearched cry goes out, we have say , 6 times the buys to sells and not moved or ticked up, as in REALITY, the trading is even.
Better guide , is small rise/fall or flat, trading Even'ish, large rise buyers killing it, forcing the MM's to move the bid price up to get sellers to keep filling buy orders, large fall, the sellers need to fcuk off ππ€£π
And as with every other such post , daily on most shares , it is meaningless and has no bearing, as nothing to do with the Market or the MM's , just BEST GUESSING sites like this one, just as many labelled buy that are sells any price can be either the worlds market do not label just print TRADES, 3rd party sites, trying to be helpful and failing miserably , use a BEST GUESS algorithm , all above ITS MID BUY , all below SELL (never the case on either) , all Exactly on its Mid price, delayed or IT now sees outside of its range, chokes = UNKNOWN (not dodgy games , hocus pocus etc) π All labels by
its now near time status, which may or may not agree with the real markets MId price at the time, especially , when a false tight spread occurs, all in the middle remain and all could be the wrong side of the 3rd party sites mid price, the upper and lower limits, reload opening the spread back out, Dimbo Algo , just thinks all was normal, as all fell within, what it already thought was the correct range of prices, oblivious and happy as a pig in π©π©π©
Actually just read your post again, thinking that still way to low, Yeo ho ho, should be looking for more on a Sale, Sunrise 5tcf 2018/19 56% for $650m , pre gas price boom, Chuditch 75% of 3.5 tcf with upside , calculate that ? GOOOONEEE
The big stuff , all in the hands of TL, as its always been, A YES, or BUILD the dam thing, until then the market will probably continue to be sceptical , it will have a home to go to. Some are going to have their jaws around their ankles, if permission or path in place and a REAL PLAYER JV/SALE, not some other minnow jv , looking to also cash in after the next drill, that just dilutes us and kicks the can down the road.........laters gone.......
saw the same thing with ggp/eua, holding monster assets, just needing the trigger, sat in both for around 6 years each , lowest **** drop buys 0.35p and 0.17p, ggp stated it had 18 telfer lookalikes on its land from before i bought in, it took the owners of telfer 17 million oz gold mine, to come take a look to trigger it, years later, flew to over Β£1 billion market cap. similar for eua , external news triggering it also, newspapers china/russia potential pgm's bidding war.
see the same with chuditch , monster asset unloved and zero valued, tl build , not talk, or finally give a first ever yes to something else, hopefully soon q4 metinaro fid with chuditch to supply via fpso and that long known value, in play.
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somewhere to be later guys and gals, or should i say, future, comfortable, very well off and millionaires ππ
and rob hope your fortunes restored, another 450m shares this time is π, sorry to hear about your massive hit on the other one π²π