Member Info for parkside13

I think that is a good move as these chumps couldn't manage a p up in a brewery. Apparently all sorts of problems which even if they fix the shares aren't worth a lot. Unbelievable incompetence.

I don't know. No downgrades but probably the ongoing seller and, as usual, no positive news flow or at least none that is remotely equity npv positive. Probably someone knows something in India around another imminent balls up or project delay. Remember they run it as though it were private so their UK minority shareholders will be the last to know!! I keep holding my shares appreciating that power projects take time to deliver and that if and when they do the ev/ebitda looks compelling, that assuming no more cock ups or tax horrors or delays or currency hits or regulatory changes or or or.

I doubt whether Grangemouth will shut and I'm sure that wont mean a jot to the jokers in India. They flogged, let's not forget, a minority stake in their hugely geared company to poor sap UK institutions at 480p. And they have pathetically failed to deliver. As my analyst mate says, "reasonably good oil company, crap power generation company". And I'm a shareholder still. I must be mad!!

They continue running this like a private co. Completely irrelevant RNS's and footling around with insipid debt noodlings. To reiterate this company has been an embarrassingly useless FTSE 100 constituent until demoted, because of complete non delivery, to the FTSE 250 and a continuance of that. They need to act like a proper co and they simply, from mission HQ in India, don't get it.

This company is really beginning to irk me. I get the business, but they come over here, flog the minimum needed to get a ftse100 quote, screw up the execution constantly, resulting in a disastrous share price, and the news flow is just pitiful hence the continued languishing share price. There is one large institutional seller and it seems as though they simply don't understand that they are not a private company now and have damn shareholders who would quite like to know what is going on. Especially with their simply enormous debt pile. Having been a fund manager for 20 years this company is seemingly clueless.

Interesting to note big rebound in Indian power demand in September. Up 15% yr on yr. Couple of brokers have noted this in respect of Greenko. But not poor old Essar.

Nope not alone. I get totally fed up with their constant obsession on currency. If you can do it then quietly do it but top making it part of your business strategy as you are beholden to credit markets and who knows what may happen with those. Your plan is deliver the cash flow from the huge capex you have made as quickly as you can. If you can fiddle around with you debt to enhance roe then fine but that is bunce. I'm a shareholder and rooting but their performance since ipo, lets face it, is pitiful, and they just don't seem able to capture the imagination of the institutions. Widows is a seller and there are others because they just don't deliver. Shame.

Honestly I'm a long term holder and I get the story but this is like watching paint dry. New FD, new CEO, currency all over the place and a simply pitiful performance since ipo. This management team really needs to perform.

Stock issuance albeit small isn't a huge help. There is still one large institution selling and I don't know what the clearing price of that holding is. Strange one this. It needs to clear its register and then execute especially on the (cue huge yawn) debt swap.

Yup. That is what the government is trying to do. An energy mix. To bet too much on one technology, whether nukes, gas, wind, coal is daft and threatens uk competitiveness. So whilst one may not like wind(or nukes or solar) they are all part of the energy mix. Quite a reasonable strategy.

For your info there were around 30,000 birds killed by wind turbines in the UK last year whereas cats kill 55 million birds each year. They do not decimate the bat populations as they are not allowed to be placed where they can kill bats and they are not useless. A wind farm in a decent location generates energy at substantially less cost than nuclear or biomass and for only a little more money than gas. And they don't pollute. To state anything else is financial and engineering illiteracy. Given that 40% of our power plant is coal fired (for the moment) where else do you expect to get the fuel from to keep our lights on? You clearly have absolutely no worthwhile insights into the UK power industry.

They operate STOR where you do get paid much more - availability payments and utilisation. I think they run CMM until it depletes by which time the gas engines are depreciated then they hook em up to natural gas and run under STOR - I think? WIND can afford divis as long as it is generating sufficient ROE. So selling a couple of projects to BlackRock and generating a profit of £12m is an illustration of what the projects are worth and what the cashflows look like. The cashflow from the operating sites is going back into developing new projects. If they stopped that (which costs around £6m per annum I think) they would be instantaneously profitable. You cant look at WIND on PE or EV/EBITDA you need to look at sum of parts. So as long as they are developing good new sites then the model works fine. If the regime changes then presumably WIND would reign in development and thus would become strongly cashflow and earnings positive - bit of a mini Greencoat.

Cost of energy ultimately. The energy is intermittent - to be truthful like a lot of other forms of energy - but ultimately it comes down to how many MWh does the turbine deliver versus its capital cost. The windier the better in theory but if you have low enough capex it will work. A decent wind site in the UK will deliver energy for around £80-90/MWh which is a bit more than gas (£75/MWh say) but a lot less than nukes, offshore wind, anaerobic digestion, wave, tidal etc. I think if Alkane can sell their licences or licence them out then that is fine and some extra bunce. How much? Who knows and it'll be years away and thus the NPV is totally "finger in the air". Makes a good adjunct to the existing equity story though even if impact is totally indeterminable right now.

Citi upgrade to price target from 155p to 180p and upgrade to recommendation to "buy". Might explain price improvement.

Walkley WIND has a market cap of £70m as it has £26m of cash, 57MW of operational wind assets worth, on DCF'd cashflows, around 60p per share to equity and 30MW of consented assets worth around 15p per share. It is EBITDA positive and sold assets this year to BlackRock for a profit of £12m, that is why it has a market value of £70m!! The top 6 shale producers in the US have lost a combined $6bn over the last seven years as the price of gas has plummeted. So whether Alkane can leverage its asset base remains (highly) to be seen but you clearly don't understand WIND very well!

Hmm I might be changing my mind!! Just been reading the latest research on Essar in light of the Indian Government's decision yesterday to raise/liberalise the gas price and also some vague stuff from the CEO re the accursed debt swap - it appears as though the Rupee weakening will help them which actually does make some sense. Anyhow, the gas liberalisation adds circa 4% and 8% to EPS and on the current numbers is beginning to make this share quite interesting. I hadn't appreciated the attractiveness of the numbers in 2016 albeit those are delivery numbers and plenty of scope for errors and omissions!! But if they do manage the debt swap then this could go up a fair bit. So mea culpa (a bit). It is a little more interesting caveated by the normal stuff around constantly disappointing, large shareholder minority discounts etc, But hmm.

Overall seems like okay oil results but continuing poor power results where fuel supply continues to be an issue. Given that the power has consumed so much capital the roe looks very poor and it needs to improve if the shares are to re-rate. Debt was okay and no operational horrors (this time). So adds fuel to the argument that this will be a long hard slog for Essar mainly revolving around getting the power plants fuelled and online. EV/EBITDA doesnt stand out as cheap at the moment so sadly no re-rating.

I suspect the recent fall has more to do with the precipitous fall in the Rupee against the dollar (and sterling). I think it hit an all time low today and this obviously impacts refining and also profit translation. Who knows what it'll do for the oft heralded debt restructuring? But I think results are out next week although probably no more material news. It's a very leveraged company (over levered in truth) and operationally volatile at the moment so share price will ping around. It's a five year extraction process from their current plight and if they execute it could do well. If not it'll be a poor share to own.

That last post is indecipherable gobbledygook!! What on earth is that all about! It's the npv of cashflows to equity, honestly it is!!

I think results are the 24th but there will be no new news. It'll be interesting to see what debt is doing and how much it has increased and probably more guff on debt to Chinese etc. That is the trouble, bored investors and high beta so market falls 8%, Essar falls more.