Member Info for parkside13

Well I bought some. 89.625p. There you go I rant and rage about the brothers and here I am buying some more some 30% below the last lot!! I must be mad!! In truth a prospective 5x EBITDA for 2015 might be okay if they actually deliver that. But who knows with them. I'm off now to question my sanity.

Well to be fair if they do deregulate diesel over there that might help. There is a stock overhang from the sale by Essar Global Fund of, I think, 3% of the total which doesn't help and there might be better news on Mahan and Salaya so that would help. So in truth there hasn't been a huge value shift here just another delay and another disappointment. So if there shares were worth 150p before are they worth 95p now? No! They are probably worth fundamentally the same. Hence they are better value now at 90p. But, and here is the huge caveat, you are buying into a disregarded minority and you have no say in this company so you need to attribute a higher risk premium to that. Is it a sell here? No! Is it a long term buy? Probably!! Would I buy some more? Probably, as I should double down!! Can I bring myself to? Dunno ask me later.

I'm not a CEO now, I was until 5 years ago when I retired to sunny Wales. Good video and neatly sums it up.

Well if that happy little metric is right - and it isn't!! - then the Bozos should sell up and bank the equity gain. They could buy another palace. But sadly they wont and the Kenyan deal is meaningless. To be fair this isn't going bust (I don't think) and the share price is close to being a clapped out dodgy buy.

A four putt - eek! But as you say sun in eyes, tricky read, manflu etc. So entirely reasonable and frankly a huge credit to you that you didn't have lots more.

Anyhow the share price is disappearing up its own backside now so that tells you what the market thinks of the Bozos and their useless edifice.

But they wont sell assets. They are the owners and stupid owners form an emotional attachment to things like power stations and oil refineries and so whilst selling might be in the best interests of shareholders they wont because it will be perceived as shrinking "their baby" and the Bozos don't want to do that. So they wont sell so one forlornly hopes that they actually start to get their assets online and generating cash.

I have told you what they need to do. They need to deliver. If the assets are worth what you assert they are worth then sell some with for twice the book cost and then reduce debt which will in turn improve earnings hugely. Even if they just sell one asset it might highlight the fact that the assets are worth far more than book. That of course assuming they are and analysts are a canny bunch and generally have a sense of the market value of assets. So I doubt they are worth multiples of book. But if they are then sell one, some or all!

Because they brothers Bozo keep talking about it and oddly enough institutional investors in the UK keep seeing it and attribute it to Essar. That is all part of a good IR department which Essar seems to lack in addition to a useless website. Their RNS was just ridiculous. To have the incumbent CEO start his report by saying "this is an impressive company...." is just cringe making. To have him start by saying something like The management of the Company is aware of the challenges it faces and intends to rebuild investor confidence by etc etc, might have been better. Oddly I know as I was the CEO of a FTSE 250 company and if our corporate governance had been as bad as theirs I'd have been fired by my Chairman before I could get the apology out of my mouth. It is lamentable.

Well they are hardly going to step aside are they! That is a ridiculous pipedream. they own the damn thing!

And I'm really not sure the Indian Government can be held entirely to blame for the Bozo brothers' woes. They have fundamentally failed to execute their plan on a number of operational fronts. They clearly don't have the corporate governance in place to run a public company and their debt is far too high in such a volatile country where **** happens! They flog their equity at 480p and here we are at 90p. Some but not all is down to the Government. As an example they go on and on about a fundamental refinancing of their Rupee debt and net result, a little is refinanced but nowhere near enough to make a difference. They go on about their refineries yet refining is a volatile and very low PE business. Witness the environment now compared to a year ago. They prattle on about desalination! They can do what they want and the minorities have no say. Bozos.

The simple fact is they cant. The bozo brothers own the majority of the Company and can effectively do what they like. That is why you have to apply such a large minority discount to the equity. So can shareholders force a change - no! The way that they can get themselves out of this mess is to execute. that is get the mines built, the coal out, the water situation at the plants solved, the availability up to generate the cashflows that the EV of this company should generate. At that point the free cash should be significant and they can start amortising the debt and free cash to equity should build very strongly. Simples! But they keep making a mess of it.

Wish I'd had no3putts against my 12 year old son at the weekend! Anyhow, you are right re the prospectus. I got to page 3 and died of risk warnings! But looking at some broker research the free cash flow yield at a mkt cap of £800m is around 11.1% and EV/EBITDA is around 8.8x for next year. Gives you some exposure to rising UK power prices as not all output is locked in under long term PPAs and ok balance sheet. UK wind projects are currently selling for around 9x EBITDA so valuation looks ok, not wildly cheap but okay and whilst you are waiting for wind projects to gain consents you get the 7% yield which looks sustainable and growable.

Quite right. The dividend was set out in the prospectus. I think, from memory they have allocated £55m for the divi which equates to a yield of just over 7% on a market cap of £781m. The growth will come from further windfarms achieving planning approval.

What a completely useless sets of results from the brothers bozo who now seem to be suffering liquidity issues. Honestly. The keep alluding to power demand up 6% in India as if that is somehow going to set the share price alight. Simple fact is they have been knackered by the Rupee falling and having too much debt and failing to get projects delivered as set out. I'm still a holder but I absolutely despise this edifice. Useless company.

Well done you for whinging! They need whinging at. Be interesting to see the results. But great to see shareholders exercising their mandate as stakeholders. Others should take note.

The only green taxes the government will stop are the eco taxes which wont impact on the RO or the CfD FiT which Infinis does and will rely on for its income. That is because onshore wind is cheap relative to pretty much anything else. So the news or rumours today wont impact Inifinis a jot.

The trouble with your argument is that Buffet has always bought good management teams allied to a sound business plan. Whilst superficially the Indian economy is short power it does not behove the likes of Essar to be able to make very high returns as that, in itself, does not help India's competitiveness. But putting that to one side, as I say Buffet invests on the basis of a sound management team and quite frankly the brothers bozo have held themselves out to be anything but. Allied to a mountain of high priced debt the equity sliver is, to coin a phrase, getting knackered. So, with the greatest of respect, Buffet wouldn't go near this one with a 200ft barge pole. As for diversification of course one should be diversified. that is stating the bleedin obvious. But I'm not having a debate around diversification, I'm having a debate about the merits of Essar and what its equity value might be.

Thanks. I agree. My last post was largely in jest apart from the shares in my SIPP, the losses and the fact that Essar is a heap of bat guano. Mea culpa here but I will hold the shares in my SIPP and see if the bozo brothers can recover the situation.

Bhajan you were so bullish on this and I ask you as a man who professes with confidence to know the story, will this thing ever recover!!? The remaining shares in my SIPP are hugely underwater and every fibre is screaming that I ought to cut my (huge) losses and head for the hills. The management is rubbish, the environment is rubbish, the governance is rubbish but surely something in there is okay and I should hold on. So give me hope? You are, at least in name, related to the sage of Omaha!!