The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
JG, they've told us the situation in the last RNS. It's about whether the market believes they will deliver what they say. Clearly they don't & the markets are dire anyway all round really. They can't say about NA sale as that is a separate game changing RNS itself!
Yes, i'm looking to average down some more here as i still feel this is a good bet for 5-10 years hold which is how i've always viewed this one but seems prudent to wait & see the situation. I'd prefer to pay a 10-15p premium from this level with certainty than have a DOCS day tomorrow!
Well the pricing & the cost reduction stuff are a work in progress & will take time to filter through. The big issue is the co is stumping up £80m pa in interest costs to just service the debts. Along with the impairments & stuff it all is eating into the bottom line. If the results can show a small profit at least & positive progress on NA we should have an upturn. If they turn out a loss & no NA progress this is tin hat land i'm afraid!
Smokey, The buses stuff is fairly small beer here in context. We need to know have they or are they selling NA & if so at what price. I believe if there is a sale going through at a reasonably good price this will turn upwards. If no progress on that front then further drops i suspect. The pricing issues & he Germany stuff will be rectified in time but the NA sale is critical IMO!
Barney, i imagine most punters will be waiting for the results announcement before adding or committing funds here. On the basis of what they've told us so far this is way too cheap. the problem is we, & especially anyone who's been here a while have become so used to this lot dropping some shocker that it makes sense to wait. I think i'd rather pay a slightly higher price to have some assurances going forward. No announcement this week & i think we'll be seeing 50p or lower!
I think the only reason Cosmen hasn't done anything about it is because of the opportunity it has created for him to load up on the cheap. It's pennies from Heaven for him. This is the reassuring thing here among all the other stuff. He would not be buying loads of these shares to lose his family money. He will know the true potential here far more than these fly by nights Garat & Stamp!
Yep, i think we all know the value is there & is much higher. Personally i been in this too long & too heavy. I'll stay however long it takes but it's tedious watching such a good business getting destroyed by those who are supposed to be creating more value!
This will come good again at some stage. Nothing wrong with this business & is a well known & well regarded brand. Those companies always come back eventually. This is not Cineworld or anything like that. Just got a bunch of fools running the show that is the only major issue here. I'm sure they'll be out soon unless there's some major positive news!
XxxAccountant, if there was a RI this will be in the 20s or lower. I don't think a RI should be required even if the NA sale fails as they have enough liquidity to operate for the foreseeable at least. For me the fact that it's where it is atm is shocking. I hope this turns soon as it's becoming a real basket case investment. Personally i do think this duo at the top need to go & some new blood needs to take over. They can't seem to get the basics right. So many mistakes: Dividend then no dividend; poor outlook guidance; no due diligence on contracts etc... How can they justify their positions here?
Well, looking at the 30+ year SP chart the current SP looks compelling. Reading the RNSs i'm hearing the phrases 'onerous contract' and 'impairment' way too often. The fundamental business here hasn't really changed much at all. Taking on contracts they clearly haven't a clue about is downright incompetence. I think most people invested here thought it was a fairly safe & secure bet but the management don't exhibit that at all. The ROCE levels in certain parts of the business are atrocious & i'm interested to see what those new managers they put in place have done. They need new pricing strategies for a start in a time of inflation. Just seems to be endless excuses here: driver shortages; impairments; fuel costs; union strikes etc, etc... Garat & Stamp have to go. They've been paid huge salaries to oversee a fivefold decline in the company's market value!
I do think Cosmen has something up his sleeve with buying up the shares. He's been interested in buying this out for years. I do think at these levels it's a complete sitting duck. I'll be adding to my woes next week & adding a significant amount if it drops much more. Multi year outlook wise it looks a bit of a steal!
£375m mkt Cap for this is shocking. £3bn+ annual revenues. Totally bizarre but management entirely to blame for this & the market has no confidence. Got to question the due diligence which has gone into this German rail escapade. You'd think they'd learn to stick with what they know after the disaster of LNER in 2009. Amazingly poor performance. Come back Dean Finch!