Member Info for Paddyboy1

LL, I wish you were doing tomorrow’s presentation. Got to forgive the negative vibes. LTHs have been hammered here.

Any rubbish this will be in the teens very quick!

Yep, all jam tomorrow will not go down well here unfortunately !

Lara, we really need a decent day here. This has been doom & gloom for 4 years. I Originally viewed this as a ‘safe’ share. How wrong!

OG, I doubt we’ll hear too much about the hybrid as that has been deferred. Cant see the debt having reduced much. If they miss the 180 number on earnings I think it’s a tin hat day!

According to Dec24 balance sheet they had £244m cash. Add £300m approx for NASB. £544m & £600m RCF. Cash shouldn’t be an issue but who knows with this lot?

JW, net cash here should be up. Based on the sales of the depots & all the disciplined cost management. Where is all the cash burn if any coming from? German losses don’t impact cash.

Curiously I’ve noticed that every day the volume bought is much higher than volume sold but still a SP decline. Bizarre.

WT, yep, tempting to throw in the towel sometimes. Seems to have been disaster after disaster on this one. I do wonder how different it might have been without Garat doing nothing for 3 years!

I see another short increased yesterday. Could have a few of these covering tomorrow or Thursday morning.

If there was a raise I think you could be sure that on both of those calls the question would be what have you jollied up £300m on in 9 months? Extravagant Xmas party?

In my view these prices are accumulation times. I see the SP currently as pricing the company near bankruptcy which it clearly isn’t! Unfortunately they do have a habit of dropping clangers on results day. Usually starts well with record revenue numbers then a big sting in the tail!

JW, I have a large amount of dry powder waiting on Thursday morning.

Rob, I’ve mentioned it many times. The debt here has for many years been between £1-1.5bn. This is normal in this type of business. The problems started when earnings collapsed due to Covid. The business has been mismanaged terribly by the previous management. Earnings have been slow in recovery coupled with poor contracts & an end to low interest rates. I believe the new team are making all the right noises to turn this around but it will be a long haul. For me Thursdays numbers are pivotal here.

The shorts know how easy it is to drop a SP in the run up to results. Logic usually says wait till results before buying & shorts capitalise on that psychology!

JW, I think they took the CR issue off the table when they said ample liquidity to cover debt maturities until 2028. If there was a CR here you would have to question. What on earth are you doing with the money? Nearly £1bn in cash & facilties is a lot of money to burn through. This is not a cash burn business! The underlying results this week should show positives but the underlying numbers will be scuppered by non cash things on the balance sheet. The SP here has bumbled between 20-28 for effectively 8 months now. 1 or 2 pence movements I don’t think are too significant.

My concern about these results is mainly what the German penalty is this time?if the rest of the business is running along ok there should be a foundation for the SP to start rising!

This is not SYNT. MCG have just had a £300m cash injection & a credit facility of £600m. They have stated there is ample liquidity. Comparison with SYNT is like comparing apples & pears!

All the talk of the debt & finances, they’ve got €88m to shell out here so can’t be all that dire!

Well, this is what is a concern. I’ve looked at the Dec TU & tbh it looks ok. This RNS seems to have come out of the blue & I can only assume it is down to their financiers demanding a CR of sorts. What are they worried about?