Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I am with interactive brokers and they sent me an email on Saturday morning saying the deadline was 3am Monday morning on the 27th which is a total joke....Wont be able to partcipate but trying to speak to them now...Anyone else with IB?
@paul looks like that was due to dissenting Arbitrator - has anyone gone through the King and spalding court documents to see if there has been a dissenting arbitrator or inclinations of one thus far? I have read a couple of documents and none seem to allude to it
On the last Navitas call they said that they expected FID to coincide with first oil from Shennadoah - This is what is leading the date today - It is not new information nor is it a hard stop...just a date that fits nicely for Navitas.....
If the valuation is to be done on the same DCF method it is very easy to justify a full payout on Ombrina Mare...even using really low POO assumptions and high maintenance capex, and allowances for incidents, drags on working capital, tax....Ombrina mare was an oil field of potentially 166mn barrels of oil at 14-20k barrels per day.....I mean 50mn quid exploration reimbursement and 1.50EUR per barrell profit reimbursement is 300mn...1.50 per barrel of oil profit is surely conservative
If you read some of king and spaldings submissions for previous cases and the ICSID case materials you can see how they work out the quantam...It involves bringing in experts in certain areas (all whom take a fee which is also disclosed) but really doesnt seem as complicated as you would think nor as accurate I would imagine...Boring long reading but worth it...
Republic of Ecuador example
https://www.italaw.com/sites/default/files/case-documents/italaw8208_0.pdf
King spalding documents page
https://www.italaw.com/counsel/king-spalding
Hearing on Quantam Colombia
https://www.italaw.com/sites/default/files/case-documents/italaw10285.pdf
https://www.italaw.com/sites/default/files/case-documents/italaw10285.pdf
https://www.italaw.com/sites/default/files/case-documents/italaw10646_0.pdf Spent a solid while reading through the court document from the attempt by italy to annul the case and after reading it I am more confident that rockhopper have won the case than ever
It looks like its from his own money - He has a big holding in a Canadian gold company rupert resources worth about 80mn that he sold down recently looks like that money went into the Borders stock...about 1% of his net worth so hard to read anything into it being a huge conviction bet or not...he is also a canadian broker so not really a broker for RKH directly
Its good to have the negating opinion...I mean its a bargain to buy a company for 40 million to get the 100mn cash on their balance sheet ignoring all other assets.....would be a field day for private equity or navitas lol....pay 40mn get the 100mn cash we have on our balance sheet and btw we have a potentially 1.8bn barrel oil field with breakeven at 43 USD per barrel just incase the 100mn cash isnt enough for you..
The oil and gas industry makes up 92 percent of fossil fuel-related claims. And they look great at it: When the “merits” of the claim are decided upon and the final decision is made public, the fossil fuel industry has won 72 percent of the time. The average payout in those winnings is $600 million.
https://crast.net/50028/the-fossil-fuel-industry-has-a-trillion-dollar-secret-weapon-for-mitigating-climate-action/
good post Dem ..........I think the market cap should rerate by at least the cash amount for two reasons. 1 the market cap should be equal to the enterprise value + cash less total debt. And secondly the enterprise value (which is close to the current market cap seeing as there is next to no cash) is discounting Sea lion substantially due to the lack of cash at the company. With an award this cash position changes and thus the discount on Sealion reduces significantly.
E.G. a 100mn net award should add more than 100mn to the market cap in theory or more than 22p per share bringing it to at least 30p