Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Hi Auson - I think Cairn energy market cap rose by 300mn when the announcement was made re the dispute. similarly in 2021 when the legalisation of cairn seizing indian assets the market cap rose again by >200mn.... Cairn has an underlying business and a much larger cap so the relative benefit of the case is not as signifcant as a cash strapped Rockhopper. Furthermore post the ruling for seizure of assets the analysts significantly raised their target prices which could also be the case for rockhopper in a situation of an award...I do think the share price will react positively to an issued award. If the award gets paid I think the market cap will have to be at least the cash on the balance sheet. It is hard and unreliable to value a company but there are ranges that can make sense.
Regards,
P777
HI Ovet,
This podcast sheds some light on the process of quantam albeit not very helpful
https://www.ashurst.com/en/news-and-insights/podcasts/legal-outlook-podcasts/legal-outlook-energy-and-resources-disputes-episode-7/legal-outlook-energy-and-resources-disputes-7-transcript/
apologies the 4.3mn is incorrect it showed up under sams name for q1 this year but is an error...it is related to the united oil an d gas divestment from RKH from last year....not sure why it is showing up as now...my bad...old tech
I think the share dillution would be in the range of 4-15mn e.g. 10-30ish %...He shouldnt be allowed to do more than that and as shareholders we should tell him that as there is no need for it if he runs the business smoothly unless there was a turnaround decision on decommissioning the temporary dock....Also note Sam has sold 4.5mn worth of shares in another oil and gas company recently...so does not need the salary and could participate in equity raise
Below are some examples of recent cases that achieved awards. Surprisingly the tribunals are generally quite quick after proceedings closed to issue award...of course the Italians are the Italians and it doesn't really mean anything but interesting nonetheless.
1
AFC Investment Solutions S.L. v. Republic of Colombia (ICSID Case No. ARB/20/16)
February 24, 2022
The Tribunal declares the proceeding closed in accordance with ICSID Arbitration Rule 38(1).
February 24, 2022
The Tribunal renders its award.
https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/20/16
2
Hydrika 1 S.A.C. and others v. Republic of Peru (ICSID Case No. ARB/18/48)
uly 27, 2021
The Tribunal declares the proceeding closed in accordance with ICSID Arbitration Rule 38(1).
August 17, 2021
The Tribunal renders its award.
https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/18/48
3
Westmoreland Mining Holdings, LLC v. Canada (ICSID Case No. UNCT/20/3)
August 19, 2021
Each party files a submission on costs.
January 31, 2022
The Tribunal renders its award.
https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=UNCT/20/3
4
Kimberly-Clark Dutch Holdings, B.V., Kimberly-Clark S.L.U., and Kimberly-Clark BVBA v. Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (ICSID Case No. ARB(AF)/18/3)
November 5, 2021
The Tribunal declares the proceeding closed in accordance with Article 44(1) of the Arbitration (Additional Facility) Rules.
November 5, 2021
The Tribunal renders its award.
https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB(AF)/18/3
5
Hope Services LLC v. Republic of Cameroon (ICSID Case No. ARB/20/2)
August 2, 2021
Each party files a submission on costs.
December 23, 2021
The Tribunal renders its award.
https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/20/2
6
NEPC Consortium Power Limited v. Bangladesh Power Development Board (ICSID Case No. ARB/18/15)
March 16, 2021
The Tribunal declares the proceeding closed in accordance with ICSID Arbitration Rule 38(1).
April 12, 2021
The Tribunal renders its award.
https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/18/15
anyone gone through previous cases to see what the time from finalized to award issues has been...understand there is no correlation but could be indicative of whether they always award at the end of the timeframe or extend or issue early
I am a genuine shareholder since 2021...I categorically disagree with Godders and believe what he is saying is deliberate. There is no way the company will raise 184mn +. They couldnt. The reason why he would say this I dont know. Even 10mn or 15mn is alot but 184mn is nonsense. In 2010 when the market cap was 800mn the company raised 200mn by dilluting share holders by 35%. The share price was 324p on that day and the raise price 319p. To think that is possible now is a different story, maybe he is still scarred from that.
Can you tell me what the plan for the minimum 184 million pound that RKH are going to raise under your proposition is? is there a completely different development to sea lion that you know about? surely a more reasonable 4mn capital raise to cover working capital and some would make sense?
Sam has 2.3mn shares straight which if he sold right now are worth c.200k. You think he wants to dillute this to 20k.
Lets say they dillute 90% as your saying which means they issue 4.1billion shares on top of the 460mn current. Lets take a conservative estimate and say this crazy fund raise is done at 4p...what do you suppose the company are going to do with that 184mn raise ...especially considering the 3.5mn costs are working capital are....you are saying we are going to raise (if at 4p) 53 years of working capital at current constraints lol. If at 8p double that.....Can you see why people are questioning what you are saying...the math doesnt make sense on any estimates
when are the drilling updates due?
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000554342070
Pierre Andurand calling for potential 200usd oil price