Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Hydra - Could you explain why you think the dilution will be so much and how much you think it will be...maybe scenarios? number of shares needed? price per share in your assumptions...I just cant see how your math works considering the current working capital needs and assumed loan from Navitas...market cap 40mn currently working capital for a year 3.5mn or so
Godders will you put some number on that share issuance please - how many shares? what price? and how much dillution that equates to and what the company/ outlook looks like post dillution......understand its based on assumption but so is everything here
Oil demand is at highest for a decade at least with inventories at their lowest, would interest rates be headed up if oil prices were going back to 50USD. The energy transition needs oil to be completed... the more expensive it is the slower it will happen.
I firmly believe that there will be an OM award within in the next year. If this award is even 10mn out of the potential 300mn+ we have 3 years worth of working capital coverage. Yes the company will have to raise unless the indicative award arrives by June to be borrowed against but raising 5mn at 7p is only a 14% dillution and takes the overhang of going concern away and leaves you with just the investment case...in which case you wont be bable to buy shaers at 9p.. even factoring in the marketing the company will have to do to raise. These two points refute the derampers posts about multi year large dillution.
What Sam should do is participate in the raise at market prices not a discount to show his conviction in the equity story and commitment to see SL through to completion or alternatively buy some stock himself now. A 100k commitment even. If he believes in the potential then there isn't a better alternative for his pension pot given the upside if executed even 25% successfully.
rock hopper have spent roughly 350k a month since June 2021 - if they were to raise 10million at 8.5p it would dillute shareholders by c.20% whilst at that run rate giving them 28 months to get to FID...to raise 3.5million would dillute shareholders around 10% and give them 10 months to FID. run rate of costs have been coming down and becoming more efficient and now that the control more expenses they can potentially ask for extensions according to the company. Question is if they only raised 3.5mn-5mn would you even be able to buy back in at these prices before the stock takes off due to the overhang being gone.....
shares outstanding rose from 293mn to 452mn(54%) from 2015 to 2016 whilst the market cap also rose from 121 to 128(6%)...in the last 9 months they have spent 4.6mn of their cash... If they were to raise say 10mn at 8.5p they would only have to issue 117mn shares resulting in a c.20% dilution?? Do you think it would be possible to even get shares below 10p after the raise? OM is to be closed in a few weeks from the 28th of march with decision rendered in 4-6months from then...do they need to raise 10mn even?
lol hydraides...yes potential dilution and yes no cash generation for a few years.....invest now in the prospects of the potential that you are talking about or else invest when the propects have been realised and are in decline with cash being reinvested.....If what your saying is correct that rkh in 12 years time is going to be a much better company than today then I cant understand why you would make more money investing in it then rather than now haha
https://www.themarker.com/markets/.premium-1.10747314 anyone able to pas this paywall and share?
doesnt make any sense?
30-Mar-22 13:27:51 8.28 30,000 Buy* 8.10 8.30 248.40k O
30-Mar-22 13:25:37 8.30 17,166 Buy* 8.10 8.30 142.48k A
30-Mar-22 13:25:05 8.3786 59,675 Buy* 8.10 8.30 499.99k O
30-Mar-22 13:23:09 8.28 15,000 Buy* 8.10 8.30 124.20k O
30-Mar-22 13:22:19 8.271 12,000 Buy* 8.01 8.30 99.25k O
I would prefer to own a company with 80mn cash in the bank, 40mn market cap and potential sealion assets but no partner than a company with 5mn cash in the bank 40mn market cap and potential sealion assets but no confirmed partner yet