Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
Looks like Monday:
https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/south-africa/2022-11-17-transnet-says-main-coal-line-to-be-reopened-by-monday-after-derailment/
Anyone else notice that head and shoulders reversal pattern that developed end of August to 10th Oct ?
There were a few failed attempts at breaking through the downward sloping neckline from 12th Oct to 4th Nov. The top of head to neckline is about £3. The last high was 1435 on 4th Nov,(which touched the sloping neckline) so 1135 would be the target to start buying again. Although with TGA it could go lower or not reach the target, so wise to layer in buying in smaller tranches. I sold half at just under 1400, and am buying back slowly with the dividend payments in reserve.
This outfit got it so wrong in summer last year, now they're at it again:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-10952637/STOCKS-WATCH-Boatman-blasts-Thungelas-coal-comeback.html
Blatant de-ramping prior to year end resuts/div announcements in Aug.
I'm with Patrm on this, for the same reasons. Have top sliced half of my holdings at over £5. Was totally over invested in TGA which has paid off, time to diversify a bit.
The way I see it, TGA would have to consistently pay 20% dividends to make it worth buying/holding (esp with the witholding tax issue). That's £1.20+ p/a dividend at current share price. I think it's reaching that limit now. So much depends on coal prices holding these crazy levels, and Transnet delivering. At these share prices, the risk reward ratio is changing and that's why some are top slicing.
There are plenty of rock solid 10% div payers in the FTSE100 without the volatility and risks. And for those with a higher risk appetite there are lots of other opportunities around.
Overall, I'm glad to have been in this share, and happy to hold what I still have left. Wild ride.
I'm with TheClive on this. Got in early Sept, with a timeframe till at least Mar 2022. The rapid rise to just under £5 powered by daft coal prices was a bit of a sideshow that attracted momentum traders (rampers and de-rampers). Would have preferred that hadn't happened. But still here, haven't bought more or sold any.
Interesting article here (12th Nov) , that may explain the temporary surpression of coal prices. Panicked futures speculators offloading at huge losses. They drove it up, China has taken them to the cleaners. Supply and demand will re-assert itself soon enough, and hopefully coal will settle at a sustainable slightly higher price from here on.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/traders-left-on-the-hook-for-expensive-coal-after-china-squashes-prices/ar-AAQC8pv
" As China's coal futures steadied around 900 yuan ($141) per tonne this week, physical spot transactions at top Chinese ports slowed after a panicky spell last week which traders described as a "stampede".
"Sellers were stepping on each other's toes to dispose of their cargoes, even at a loss of more than $50 a tonne," a Singapore-based trader said last week.
"No one is caring about coal prices now. Their priority is to find a home for the pricey cargo before they become worth less."
spoon_key: The Whitehaven coal mine is for Metalurgical coal only (coking coal). It's used only for production of steel. UK currently has to import this, mainly from the US. Metalugical coal from Whitehaven will provide the UK and EU with a home grown supply, saving imports, creating jobs and export potential. What's not to like ?
https://www.westcumbriamining.com/
Fundamentals: the AP14 futures markets have been in severe backwardation recently. The Chinese may have frightened speculators who will have sold quick and suffered losses. But supply and demand factors are taking back over again, look for steadier and ongoing rises now and further out timewise.
COP--getting rid of coal in 10 years. No way. Soundbites. Asia's fleet of coal powered generating plants is very young, most have 20-30 years left in them. And China is still building more. No funds for new coal mines now. Demand will have to be met from existing mines, which bodes well for TGA.
This correction... Something to think about for those with an eye for Fibonacchi patterns. TGA has traded in a range of 3.87 (this is based on intraday pricing/range, as shown near top of this page). The golden ratio of 61.8% is 2.39. Take 2.39 from TGAs max 4.97 you get 2.58. On 2nd Nov, TGA closed at 2.70.. I wonder if it hit 2.58 at some stage that day ? A near perfect Fibonachi retracement.
Wouldn't be surprised if there was another Fund sale in this recent drop. Watch for RNS notices.
Also interesting, the timing aspects. The rise from start (7th June) to max price 5th Oct is 120 days. The 38.2% of this is 46 days, takes up to 19th Nov.. a few days after COP conference finishes. Can't see this flying till that's over.
The SA fund is a simple tracker. It owns 10% of the JSE market ( I think). It could be basing it's sales and purchases of TGA on the Rand value of it's stock holdings in all the other companies. ie: If TGA is flying, it's needs a bigger % of the overall 10% market holding, and if it's falling..a smaller % of the overall 10% holding. That could be an explanation. But look at the RNS notices.. buys upswings, sells downswings.
From my 1st post 15th Oct:
"Next, the actions of the SA fund that owns a big chunk seem hard to understand. Selling into downswings, buying into upswings at a higher price, rather than just holding. If it's a simple tracker, perhaps it makes sense ? But anyway, this behaviour would amplify any price movement, up OR down. Suspect that's happening now." (twice now...)
This fund behaviour has been well proved now, down and up. After this big correction has played out, (maybe not quite fininsed yet) the next upward swing will be amplified by the SA fund having to buy into the upmove. And amplified by momentum traders piling back in.
Me, in since early Sept, and holding till at least the dividend.
First, hello to all regular posters. I'm new on here, but have been following all the posts for a while. I noticed TGA when Motley Fool dismissed it in June, but I kept an eye. I'm in since early Sept, av price £3.18, and I'm holding.
The fundamentals for TGA are excellent, but back of a fag packet calculations can be misleading. Firstly AP14 prices are for 6000Kcal coals, TGA is a bit lower and trades at about a 20% discount (the discount to AP14 is not a fixed % but varies). Secondly, it's unlikely that TGA gets the spot price less 20%. It's quite likely that it sells months ahead at a discount, in order to secure sales going forward and build regular custom. There's a good balanced article here, very positive:
https://stockspinoffinvesting.com/thungela-resources-buy-the-toxic-waste/
Next, the actions of the SA fund that owns a big chunk seem hard to understand. Selling into downswings, buying into upswings at a higher price, rather than just holding. If it's a simple tracker, perhaps it makes sense ? But anyway, this behaviour would amplify any price movement, up OR down. Suspect that's happening now.
On the fundamentals side the Rand/Dollar rate (stronger $ better, stronger Rand not good), the ability of the railway line to keep delivering the coal, and Richards Bay ability to load the ships are all very important.
Finally, technicals. Greed and fear is what drives markets, and there's plenty here at TGA right now. It's had a good run up, in 3 distinct upwaves the last being quite something. There have been 2 minor flat or corrective phases. Elliot waves don't really apply to individual stocks, but this pattern looks familiar. It's time for a bit more of a shakeout. Another poster suggested £3.80, I'd say maybe less . But it's the timescales for this correction that need looking at, and it could drag on a bit.
Profit takers are leaving, momentum traders are leaving, the SA fund purchases/sales are affecting things. But volume and general interest are still too high. When the price drifts down, the volume drops down and this board goes quiet.. in short when people get fed up..that's when it can take off again. Timescales.. who knows, but I suspect this correction has a while to play out yet. LTH's will need patience, but ultimately the risk/reward scenario with TGA, and the dividend make it worth waiting.
The fundamentals can be worked through yourselves, the technicals are just my take on things and could be totally wrong...