Member Info for OsakiSushi

I shall be very interested on the management statement on the 18th May as to the income from the phony volcanic ash cloud.

Good call.

Interesting movement this morning when it opened down 5%. I decided to take up the MM's offer of 4.7 just after open and notice it's moved up again. Wonder how often we shall see this happen.

Broker opinion suggested last week the price drop on PVCS has been overdone. It now looks like the share is starting its recovery cycle. I was lucky enough to get in at 45

If the UK airspace is indeed open for business, why are there no contrails in the sky. Generally I'll notice the high altitude x-Arlantic traffic above me here in Argyll and this morning, there's been nothing. From the media stories of people using Avis for country to country rentals, I guess we'll see some higher figures reported this year.

Having been *****ing about no-one posting in Prem, I'll add my tuppenceworth. SYS appeared on both my breakout lists tonight. On the primary list, the mention was "Higher low price but CLOSE price change down or unchanged. BUY? Check Chart" On the secondary lists, it has been strengthening over the last 8 periods and now has broken above the shorterm term SMA's. I'm a bit concerned about the short term RSI as it's almost maxed out at 97.5 out of 100. But with its closing price at 41.97, showing a breakout well within its channel of 36.75 <-> 50 and has some decent potential. If the sp does not relax below 40.661 over the next few days, there may be a decent bounce. It's now on my monitor. Thanks.

I wonder if this ash cloud no-fly regime is pushing the SP up as more folks in Europe are seeking alternate modes of transport. Interesting buy patterns so far today.

Being one of these freaks who only takes 6 hours sleep a day, my habitual scan of the chatrooms before bed last night just irritated me. Oddly, I prefer contrary opinions to my own in my never ending efforts to see the bigger picture but too few of the Prem members ever stick their heads above the parapet. And thanks guys for your comments. Pity we are all seeing the same thing.

The somewhat scary news story is that last time this volcano erupted, it lasted a year.

Sorry, didn't notice your post 'till today. Yes, still in VIY and bought again on the dip after the RNS which followed fairly typical VIY behaviour. The price movements Thur/Frid are indicative of a positive RNS next week assuming VIY sticks to its usual regime of movement. It seems the positive RNS effect is weakening insofar as everyone knows what VIY does works and it's just in a slow climbing phase. The trendbreaker will be an RNS with fiscal info when we find out what their 5% share of the oil found is actually worth. alistair

Been drawing more lines on charts tonight and playing with the calculator. Assuming the March 09 trend may have actually finished on Octover 1st 09, we now have a problem with the FTSE as the newer trend line formed since has been increasing at a much shallower angle. That newer trend line provided support on the Nov 3rd 2009 and Feb 8th 2010 dips. On the first occasion, the FTSE was 6.64% above the trend before retrace. On the second occasion, 11.31% above. Currently, the FTSE is 13.16% above that trendline. (or only 9.69% above my original line) If we go into a downtrend, first support seems to be at 5230 and final support at 5070. If it goes below 5070 should a retrace occur, a new trend will be formed. I'm getting really quite concerned about things and have pulled a couple of shares out of play. My end of day data run posted warnings all over the place for the market tomorrow suggesting the financials and miners were going to get a hammering. Which is a puzzle, 'cos the miners RSI's are not at the top end currently.

Okay, the snow has got mushy up here in Scotland, so paying attention to real life again... Two things of importance noted tonight when I looked hard at the bigger picture of things. Firstly, since March 09, strong market retraces have occured when the FTSE exceeds 12% above the low trend line. Currently, we are at 8.7% so despite the strength of the market presently, the real pain will not (assuming trends remain) occur until we see around 5800 on the FTSE within the next two months. Logically, we will see a sharp retrace of around 12% at that point. I've mapped the LOW trend from the March dip through the July dip through the recent dip. Looking at the highs before each retrace on that trend gives a clue as to when disaster is looming and despite every single indicator warning me to be careful currently, the fact remains we are not massively above that trend. Secondly - and this is a biggie - the fabled second bottom issue. I do not think it is going to happen 'cos March 2009 WAS a second bottom. To horrify yourself, set up a chart mapping the FTSE from 2000 until now and use MONTHLY as the timing period. Or Quarterly. We are currently in the recovery phase of a 'W' formation when the rhs of the W base is higher than previous 2003, indicating faster recovery. I've realised that I use the same mindset on the market as I use when riding a motorcycle at 'making progress' speeds - always looking for danger, assuming the worst. But it was fun tonight looking over the last 25 years of market trends and actually provided some reassurance. We're going to get dips but I will be looking carefullly when the market gets 12% above the low trend line. That seems to be a flashing blue light signal!

Thanks. Pretty sure I'm not the only person with a raised eyebrow!

Out of mild interest, why is Childsplay finishing a post and signing it ADMIN?. I'm sure a few other folk have noticed this oddity.

Just revisited the chart. Complete trend break will occur when midprice is near (or above) 7.25 over a one week period. If that happens, your upper targets are probable.

Check weekly Keltner for any stock. The bandwidth is the trap or cloud!

If it can keep at (or ideally above current by 0.25) this average for the rest of the week, it's going to exceed trend dramatically. It has broken out obviously and the big push is very close as the 6 month weekly view chart shows. Suffice to say I intend to watch very closely. I wrote to Moosh tonight about my new set of rules and this one looks nice. The however is if the upward twitch does not happen... it's a trap.

This was a surprise yesterday. Huge movement on few trades again today. Think I'll just hold on.

Spreadbetting is proving interesting and rather time consuming. The great difficulty is remembering to look at my actual stocks in play in addition to the game I'm playing with the FTSE. Thought I'd cracked FTSE immediate trends and was up 70% last week. Managed to gather another 40% today, then lost it all when the USA opened and failed to perform as expected. Moosh, I got into UKC today as I 'think' it's about to move up. Anyone looking for the RSI's will find them still being published daily at the osakisushi webspace sometime after 17.30. Not convinced at the computed immediate trend for the market tomorrow (+1%) and did not bet on it!

Looking back over the charts 'till 2000, it seems the market recovers once Asia closes for the Chinese new year. And generally, there is a downward blip in the preceding week. Have never paid attention to this before but now wonder if the asian market forces tend to depress things prior to their national holidays.