Member Info for OracleofOldham

The yet to be formed tech division is values the same price as our current market cap.
Time for the so to start moving up?!

a tasty update indeed. :)

Yep all going terribly well.
Imagine when rest of the world are fully our of lockdowns p

https://www.mining.com/cim-2021-anglo-american-ceo-cutifani-urges-miners-to-create-the-future-not-be-a-victim-of-it/

Interesting read, we are going to be a 'materials solutions' company rather than a mining company.
Semantics perhaps but gives out a more acceptable impression than a miner. Also doesn't seem like mining is going anywhere soon.

just in case you miss it, the dividend here does suffer from a 35% Swiss withholding tax.
Personally I still think the upside of the share price can counter this, but it is something to be aware of

You have to make your own decision, and definitely not just go off what you read on a forum chat!
But I certainly think that, this is one of the best of the bigger mining companies to invest in currently.
There may certainly be a pull back at some stage but there is no way to know when that might be, nor how deep it will go.
If I had £50k on the side, no matter what company you are looking at, I wouldn't look at putting it all in in one go.

I have to also say that it depends what your portfolio looks like, I assume you don't have any holdings here but if you have a lot in mining in general, esp other iron producers, then you may want to think about that.
Personally I currently have 25% of my shares in mining stocks (TBH a bit more than I would like.) The biggest mining stock I have is Evraz and this is second. Even if the share price doesn't go up much, and I think it will along with mining stocks in general over the next 6 months, the dividends here will make it easy for me to hold.
Last week I added a small top up to my holding here so I do see this continuing to improve, especially as the media stops trying to tell everyone Russia is about to invade Ukraine and moves onto the next alleged crisis.

some say cash is the most risky asset.
Guaranteed to go down over time thanks to inflation in our debt based world

that is the risk we take in this game.
If you look at youtube or even most mainstream media we have been about to crash since January and to be honest I did find myself starting to almost expect a drop.
However all my research shows that every crash has ended up eventually as a new high so as long as your time frame is not too short you should be ok even putting money at the top.
Funnily it seems that you gain less (in history) waiting for a drop and then buying all right at the bottom of each crash then if you had dripped money in each month.
5-10% drops happen most years at some point so a pull back is not too scary, we'll see what happens IMO there is just too much money around and lack of alternatives to making returns, for a 20% + crash but that doesn't mean it won't happen!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56972562

Hopefully this doesn't become a trend.

Not that these things are exact but a 92% discount seems like a pretty reasonable margin for error.

uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/british-american-tobacco-p-l-023928140.html

Just need media to stop worrying about menthol regulations and everyone to stop dying of a respiratory illness.
Mind you, crises are usually win sin stocks do well, not that I like crises but... you know.

I only have about 3%-4% of my holdings here which as LL mentions made it much easier to hold then if I had 20%-30% in here.

I am not convinced on inflation across the board, though no doubt in the near term there will be a spike in almost every area as countries fully open back up.
however I do expect commodity prices to keep rising for the next 3+ years (not in a straight line) down to the amount of money governments across the world have planned to spend on big infrastructure projects.

I do have an eye on being too heavy in miners, but hard to see much danger to them if you're not too heavy in one company.
Of course a vaccine proof covid out of say India could certainly change things, but then every year there is a reason not to invest so it's as always about managing risk.

www.schroders.com/sv/insights/economics/29-reasons-not-to-invest-in-the-stock-market/

HI Tiger,
giving away half of Ukraine (300 squared KM) by mistake is a pretty bit mistake.

The idea they are going to roll the tanks in and try and grab back such a huge area of land just doesn't seem realistic IMO.

From other borders it seems that Russia's way currently is to make some local trouble, claim a victory and then leave things pretty much as they are.

That Russia has control of Crimea and boarders the black sea to the east takes away much desire for such a large scale war.
To the north, though they cause occasional issues with the Baltic states, they have Kalliningrad and I don't think there is serious speculation as to them trying to reconquer any other areas up there.
Crimea strikes me as the black sea equivalent.
Putin also has to be more careful with the US now his puppet is not in the whitehouse and I again cannot see such a large land grab without the US and EU putting troops on the ground.

We shall see, this is all speculation but I feel this is just the latest media hysteria story and it's giving a good opportunity to get in cheap with this stock.

Maybe think about it a different way.

Why would Russia want to completely invade Ukraine?
What is the benefit to them to take over the country?
I am well aware I can be wrong but I don't see the benefit from Putin's side to take over a country, and to put Ferrexpo's assets at risk they will have to push up to Kiev.
Ukraine is quite a big area and I just cannot see Russia even wanting to push that far into Ukraine, nor can I see the benefit. I am not sure the chance to get their hands on Ferrexpo quite balances up with the risk of all out war.

I can see the current benefit for Putin to look tough in the media and talk big about protecting Russian people but the worst thing I think you can do with a share is to take your guidance from what the press says. They are always going to paint the worst picture because fear and outrage sells papers or gets clicks.

Long story short, everyone in any share should do your research on why you buy it and should keep an eye on what is happening, but personally if there is an escalation and the price drops more than 10%-15% I will be adding to my holdings.
Funnily that drop will only take it back to where it was a couple weeks ago which seems to tell me the market currently can't see a full Russian invasion either.

Good luck all.

I think you will be waiting until towards the end of the summer for online retail stocks to start getting some love.
Shoppers and Investors alike are only interested in the opening up shares at the moment and this will likely last at least until June/July.
Even last week when the gov said they might have to postpone international travel IAG and EasyJet were still up.
You can go on at how great this company is but macroevents will almost always outweigh microevents (That Asos, AO, THG, etc are all down hard the last week speaks to this).
Probably not worth selling at this price but also not sure it's worth adding either. If this drops around 300p then you will be getting a good price IMO. At this price you are still paying for a future that can't afford many challenges or slip ups.

As long as you are buying shares for 3-5 years plus then this will be a good entry level IMO, but also IMO in then next couple months you will get a better entry prices.

I see we still are a Swiss company not Russian yet.
Good news. Imagine what the price will do when the media starts looking elsewhere for a story

I do feel it's worth pointing out that if you are actually going to attack someone, the last thing you will do is have it all over the media.
I'm pleased I didn't sell. Thought it may drop more in which case I would have added a small addition but happy to let this ride as still feel that soon some other threat will be on the news, probably about how china are about to invade taiwan.
Never forget the media wants to scare people that's how it gets more views and clicks.

exciting stuff, but a few months ago wasn't world war 3 going to be China vs India?
And a couple months before that is was India vs ****stan.
Also read at the end of last year Russia was building up it's armies on the border with China!

There does seem to always be some WW3 in the news, this is obviously the most important to us due to Ukraine, and whilst I do get the concern around Ferrexpo, I also 'think' that in a month or so we will be onto some other end of the world, maybe in the middle east, to take our minds off it.

Plus I've got shares in Evraz, so if the worst happens, they'll get a load of cheap Iron! :)

The Biden thing I think is what happens with all big countries.
The idea that we (US, UK, the west) don't interfere in other countries politics is hard to match to what's happened in Libya, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and so on.
Just to be clear the sacking of the Ukrainian official was not anything to do with him investigating Biden or his son, it was because he wouldn't investigate the elite in Ukraine. US government decided they don't like that and that's why they pushed for him to be fired.

Anyway, I don't think Ferrexpo are in danger, I haven't sold any of my shares though perhaps because I don't have a huge percent of my overall portfolio, and am quite up in this stock it is easier to do so. If this does drop I think I will be adding as uncertainty and fear are friends to the value investor.
There is a chance Ukraine could go up in flames, but then that's the issue with most miners as they do business in geoplolitically sensitive areas.
Long story short I'll try not to let the media excitement around world war 3 make me jump out of what is definitely a good stock both on price and on future global requirements, but can understand others taking a more defensive stance.

Just sold my last holding here.
Good luck to all of you who are holding still.
I think this is a good company but the market doesn't like it at the moment, too many headwinds for it even before the rotation to opening stocks.
If this falls back near 300 I'll look to start reentering (not that I expect that to happen) but a growth stock that doesn't grow is not much use to me and mid to upper 350-370 seems to be this stock's ceiling.
At least a value stock that doesn't grow still gives you a dividend and I'm not interested in being in the right, only about making money.