Member Info for OracleofOldham

seems that if there is inflation (well we know there is look at any commodity price (though not gold at mo) then any buyers here are paying less for bigger gains.
If there's not inflation increase then the stock price will go up and they are getting in cheaper so bigger dividend and upside.

Either way with plans from all major governments to spend on infrastructure and green energy pretty much any decent miner is a great buy for the next 2-5+ years

Interested to know what people think of Saga from a longevity perspective.

I'm quite new here, I have watched Saga for a while but was never convince of its future because their benefit of providing for the older generation was that people would just stick with what they know, especially around insurance. The internet of course has shot this and so they have seemed to compete poorly against other providers, hence the drops even before covid.
Basically here now because the price was just too cheap and also see the move into cruising as interesting way of standing apart as a USP.
Now I need to start thinking if this will be a company I just sell in the future for profit or if it's one for me to keep hold of and continue to build a position for the longterm.

I will of course do my own research but interested in how others on here see this company moving forward.

i dont' like ETFs (each to their own though) prefer to own part of companies.

don't so just because i say :) but BP and Shell is where I've put my money.
Compared to Chevron/ Exon they seem way too cheap plus over next year the demand will go up much quicker then the ability to turn wells back on (not quite like turning a switch). plus a bunch of competitors (eg US shalers) are gone so more of the market to grab.

Again DYOR but they seem low risk to me and a dividend too. The way i'm investing the last months has been to move to 'value' companies as so many are so cheap compared to their intrinsic values that I expect them to act like growth stocks but with benefits.

If BOO, Asos, THG, etc come down enough I'll look at them but think the market is going against them in the short term (doesn't mean they'll be down every day!!) so reckon I can get them cheaper, and if I don't no worries as expect to still do fine where i am putting my cash.
long term I expect all 3 will be higher than today, but don't see them outperforming other sectors in the next 3-6 months.

this is just a move from online to offline stocks with big potential gains.
probably this will be lower in the short term as will other online companies while everyone move to travel, tourism, energy etc where they think they can make large profits.
longer nothing has changed here which is why i still have a holding and if we go below 300 will add more, buy also why i have taken about half/two thirds of holding from here over last few weeks and putting it in miners/oil and indeed travel.

DYOR

this always seems to jump the day after good news, maybe should keep an eye for next time as looks like investors give us a day to get in ahead of them each time.

regards ftse to 7500 i agree it should.
I think the biggest threats to that (so far as i can see) is the reopening going wrong and causing a spike (seems there is already disagreement between whitty and johnson on bringing all kids back on 8th march instead of staggered). Or Sunak doing something crazy by cutting back support or raising taxes in the March budget.
Longer term i 'expect' there will be drop when the covid support in UK and/or US starts to be cut back as especially in the US it seems markets prefer stimulus to an actual good economy, but if we come out without having to go back (moving towards sping/summer plus the vaccine rollout should help here) and Sunak doesn't spook the markets, I can't see a reason the ftse isn't at least over 7,000 by the summer, and if (big if) we don't have to lock down again in the winter it should be back around 7500 as the main stocks are miners, oilers and banks that will outperform in that scenario.

Obviously DYOR

i'm not sure covid is here to stay.
I do hear that a lot in the media but seems mainly said by those that are anti-lockdown and think we should just let everyone get it, even though we know you can get it more than once.

The fact this is a pandemic is actually beneficial (from an eradication perspective) because it means worldwide money and support to beat the disease. Especially money from US, Europe and China to vaccinated the poorer countries knowing they are also protecting themselves.

This is why smallpox was eradicated, because the global 'will' and with vaccines that are 90-95% effective and (it seems) also reduce spread by 66%, if we globally follow through the vaccination process properly then there is no reason the disease shouldn't die out from lack of susceptible hosts.

That UK cut the foreign aid budget was not a great sign though at least they are now talking about sharing out extra vaccines we have bought.

I really think that only inward looking policies like 'america first' , 'brexit' etc mindsets can prevent us being rid of covid worldwide in the next year or two. Whilst i disagree with those ideals, i understand they can be argued when it comes to manufacturing, etc but not to health.

Obviously that will be good for mining stocks which is why i've been building positions in them as well as the oilers.

DYOR

or you could buy hotel chocolate shares, alas they don't pay dividends in chocolate anymore :(

BTW just because I hold them doesn't mean you necessary should.
I'm sure you will anyway but do your own research :)

Webba1 at the moment I have holdings in Evraz, Ferrexpro, Glencore, Rio TInto and Anglo American.
I don't need too much excitement but feel there is as much growth in a lot of dividend paying stocks as growth stocks at the moment with the benefit that you get a bit of money in your pocket rather than just paper profits.

Regards coal there will definitely stay a need for it as the only other option to make steel is recycle and there isn't near enough on the planet to cover requirements and i expect as Africa and Asia industrialise they will likely look to oil, gas and coal rather than be able to jump straight to green energy.

over the last 2, 3 and 6 year period Boo has outperformed Asos.
Even up a higher percent in the last 6 months just for a bit of balance.

I've only been taking money out as there are better current option in other sectors (mainly miners) but will keep a holding here and not in Asos as I don't see it as as good an option over a long timeframe.

is this the guy we all like here for shorting us?

citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/hedge-fund-boss-odey-lunged-at-junior-female-banker-court-hears/a1467288?re=82434&ea=1473307&utm_source=BulkEmail_FundsInsider+Afternoon&utm_medium=BulkEmail_FundsInsider+Afternoon&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_FundsInsider+Afternoon

looks like this got missed in the party today

doing well to be down on a day like today :(

hard to plan your business when you are reliant on an incompetent government who seem to constantly changing their mind on things that they were 100% on the day before.

I hate PFC it's been a money pit , the stock never seems able to get ahead. If I wasn't so down on it I would cash out long ago. I though it should have a good future and thefact they started moving into windfarms made me think there could be a future for the company but TBH If the option was there is cash out level and use BP and RDSB as my O&G exposure, and they have their own Petrofacs which also makes me wonder if they will start to get squeezed if there is a slow down in the sector before they can transition to renewable.
Still in theory they are very undervalued and depending what the fine is they should bring div back and start to rebuild the order book which is looking weak.
DYOR

www.ft.com/content/1d10e282-923b-4d8a-8706-d75d00a2c10a
Not sure the link will work but FT has interesting (bit harsh) piece on how Covid will save corporate pensions over £60b by reducing life expectancy.
Personally I would not want Openreach sold off, why kill the goose that keeps laying for a one off benefit?

I can't see this cabinet stopping any foreign company picking off UK stocks.
As long as they get their back hander they'll sell you broken track and trace and damaged PPE then say we should just move on.
Won't have EU laws to protect them either.
Personally I'd prefer not to have this snapped up on the cheap, but don't quite have enough shares to block a takeover :)

I think it's also to do with the democrats in US pushing for the full stimulus package.
More big infrastructure projects (plus in europe and china) and some more inflation to push up ore prices.