The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Best Wishes Nezlob. Sorry for your loss, especially when you have to travel such a long way its sort of extra tough, travelling usually being reserved for pleasure.
I’m still trying hard on the share front. I usually buy for the longer term and now wish I had taken more profits. Normally when I do that shares rocket within weeks of selling! I turned the house upside down on the share front just before year end (euphemism for shares). They say dont trade out of boredom . I was so bored last week I bought some Vod shares just before the announcement of selling off their Spanish arm. Its my only bluechip! Then when I looked into it a bit further I thought it actually looks quite an interesting company now. Might live to regret that statement if they cut the dividend. There is definitely some optimism around, although forecasters have just about predicted every conceivable outcome, lower interest rates , higher interest rates, recession, no recession etc. i have found a couple of new stock that I hope will fill some potential, AVG and MGP . On the trust front I decided India is well up with events and hardly any discount to nav, whereas Japan still seems to be being shunned. A lot of our troubles seem to be connected to the high and possibly unjustified value in the dollar. Any way keeps us guessing and as always good luck and best wishes to all
Morning T. Contagion spreading to regional banks is the big fear. If the banking system is as healthy as they say surely the big banks must surely guarantee all. Why would anyone keep money in a regional if you know its safer in the main bank? The ordinary person has no idea what is going on the banking world and they dont want us to know either. If banks are going to collapse like dominos I dont see any point in just waiting for it to happen. action speaks louder than words
IGC not ICG
Morning all. This is a tough old test. I think the market does speak as well as project into then future. Like when ‘crazy eyes Truss’ somehow landed in mission control. Firstly we have been reassured that uk banks are in fine fettle so Barc down another 5% this morning along with the others. I do think HSBA will be seen to have got at least as good a deal as Santander did when they cherry picked the best bits of Abbey and Lloyds were handed all the doggydos from the rest of uk banks. I think they are basically screaming stop the interest rate hikes because it is only going to increase bad debt and stifle growth. Nearly back at the pandemic beginning where investment trusts are so discounted now, you are almost guaranteed at least a 25% bounce on the first sign of recovery, but quite a bit of magic needs to line up first. On that note Japan and India are very much expected to be at the forefront of growth. I managed to get out of a couple of Japan trusts with a little profit recently, mainly because it was one of few places I could. India Capital Growth is one I am looking at. quite a small trust. Has a great upward trend chart, in complete contrast to the sector,so not bargain hunting, but looking for exponential growth in small and medium caps. Very good luck to you all
Thank you all for your condolences. It is never easy to deal with. Life goes on shares carry on falling! . I think it must be mostly Shell, BP and Astra holding the ftse up at new levels. I still have great confidence in the companies I have, just the market doesnt yet share the same enthusiasm. Will help a bit if Rishi sorts out Brexit. Dow seems pretty uncertain right now. It seemsn as one problem gets resolved several more pop up on the horizon, but there are definitely signs of progress in certain areas. Supply chains being on a firmer footing would also help. Gl and BW
Hi all. What a terrible start to the year. It can only get better surely. We have postponed Australia for now. It gets a bit crazy juggling too many balls at once. Sometimes it best to ignore everything and stick to the plan , but things have been stacking up a bit, not least my dear brother passing at the weekend. Should have been a routine valve replacement last october, but complications set in like they can, so they never got round to it. I dont know how it escaped his doctor that nobody was checking to see how out of date his valve was. Partly my brothers own fault I suppose but there is the undeniable truth that many people are dying needlessly at the moment. The hospital was fantastic and did everything and more. Some how the system is definitely broken and Sunak has a lot to do to live up to his word. A little boy in our town lost his life too and it looks horribly like an error in treatment. Staff are under outrageous pressure. nobody should have to work like this under such stress. All I can say is at the GP stage you have to shout clear, loud and long to get referred to the right place if you suspect anything is wrong.
Life goes on of course and there are just too many tragedies to take in at the moment. But we will overcome. Apologies for my rather sad note. A lot to be thankful for and optimistic about. Good luck all BW O
Happy New year one and all. had a fantastic trip. possibly over did the travelling a tad, 2000 k rod trip and 3 internal flights. So slept for a week when we got home. thank heavens for CNIC in my pf. Managed to resist looking at markets whilst away . Nice surprise to see they are finally being recognised and not too many other horror shows. Hope youare all doing ok and best wishes for a brighter year. Off to Australia soon. Stocks obviously do better when i’m not round! GL
Morning everyone. Hope you are all ok. Glad you had holiday T. We’re off in a couple of weeks. It will be quite a relief to get there after all the shenanigans. Is it just me or do others feel the BBC reporting its getting overly alarmist and inaccurate. Last night the headline was ‘Russian missiles land in Poland.’ They should try using their own fact checker is it looks like this turning out not to be true. Reuters correctly reported the information was yet to be verified. They seem to be faalling somewhere between the standards of the sun and daily mail.
Encouraged by the Japanese economy apparently escaping the worst of inflation so far and my Trusts are recovering a little. It seem it is mostly the nav gap widens in uncertain times rather than the stocks going down. Other than that i have FNX doing rather well , a couple of others just in profit , a couple more holding their own and 4 down 50%. Of the 4 that are down only 1 has any debt and they all have record revenue accept N4p which will either make a small fortune or go bust. Could be worse i suppose! Gl
hi all.
NB. I think its window dressing to make it look good. Cant see divi tax would raise that much and I cant see many capital gains out there this year. i have just set off a loss for last year. Most of my holdings are for IHT protection or in and ISA. They also so talk about capping pension pots at around £1 million. Cant see that bring ing in much either. A tax on property; would probably start a revolution and definitely collapse the market. Interesting that the day the BOE announce armageddon the FTSE celebrates with a sharp rise . Think its best to ignore all the political theatrics and look what the market is saying. get rid of Truss, done. Install Sunak, done . As ever Good luck all. Are Indian Visas arrived last week. Reckon its cost us at least £500 with all the faffing. the boys coming from Aus paid about £25 online !
High all. Trust funds have been a nightmare, they trade at much lower nav ratio currently. I was tempted by Thrg on more than one occasion, but stayed out mainly due to lack of funds. I see bt pension fund crashed by 11 mbillion thanks to kerching’s last effort with a ‘growth budget.’ It looks like a lot of forced selling has occurred and hopefully bottomed out. How many times have we thought that in the last 12 months! The fund manager at Merchant trust things we wont be in the same boat as the financial crash just yet and recommends housebuilders as way over sold. He is a pretty shrewd investor. The trust has more than doubled actually 150% since pandemic. And paying 5% divi. Mainly thanks to oil recovery i suspect, which caused the fund crash in the first place. Unfortunately i sold out way too soon on that trust. A lot more patience required and thankful we are in a much safer/better position than many at this awful time. Even conservative journalist Peter Oborne is forecasting the end of the conservative party after this latest debacle. Not going to be a smooth road which ever way it goes.
Afternoon. Is it safe to come out yet? Just been catching up with posts. Two pages seems to cover since then beginning of summer. We used to do about a page a week! I have continued to avoid retail hospitality and travel. My worst performing share N4p has suddenly comeback to life. Thought i was looking at extinction there, which may still happen such is the nature of the biopharma. Still in with a good shout apparently. Great performance from my largest holding CNIC today. Reported 66% organic growth and expects to be materially ahead. Gods knows what the market would do if merely in line. Basically I’m pretty happy with business performance and just accept the market doesnt want to acknowledge at the moment. I’m down about 12% overall from 3 years ago but including lost gains mean I am about 40% adrift from 18 months back. Only worked this out as I tackle tax year end form. Saga a previous favourite looks such a bargain now but am relieved i have no spare cash at the moment as would be sorely tempted. Big question though is why are no institutions buying in? Probably better /‘safer’ options elsewhere. Love the picture of no.10 with a revolving door. As suggested the best idea would be to follow some comedy programmes and have a guest PM each week till they all surrender and hold an election. Gl all
Hi all. Dreadful start to the autumn. After a 70 year reign it hardly seems right that the queen has gone whatever our feelings about our monarchy she was a one off who had a stabilising effect on a rocky old world. a hard act to follow. Although serving a long apprenticeship not expecting Charles to be more than a transitory king before William takes over and we move into a new error which right now is hard to contemplate.
I see shares I nearly bought or have followed and and think christ that was a lucky escape and then the reality sinks in with my own portfolio. On the whole my companies are well financed and little or no debt with burgeoning orders confounded only by supply chain. Saga was probably my bet escape . I had a huge holding t one time. It ws the lack of institutionl investors that spooked me even though DeHaan and his misses were piling in. He still has most of his fortune in the banks.
Kwasi Kerching seems to have lost his smile already and the BOE are going to collapse the property market. The reits are ahead of the game in that respect. Again another lucky escape for me. The latest is Roger Water (pink floyd) emailing the Ukraines first lady and now Putin himself. A total embarrassment with Poland canceling the brick in the brain tour. Pop musicians and politics are not a good mix. For some reason comedians make excellent leaders, and were in fact a very good weapon ridiculing Hitler, making them on his most wanted list not to lighten the mood! At times like this i just think of the charlie chaplin song ‘Smile’ hoping you guys are managing a bit of that . GL
Morning all or is it afternoon. Been faffing aboutvwithpasswords and troublesome laptop. Many congratulations on Mcro T. Something had to give in the end. I think that was about my last sell price so should have doubled up again. Unfortunately no funds left and wasnt sure if it was going to test lows again . Not very likely after amazon’s involvement. i think a 98% premium to close offer demonstrates perfectly how much the market is discounting across the sector. A lot more patience needed . Could be another year of this if russia isnt sorted soon. So much for comments about russia only accounting for 2% of global economy. Bloody important 2%. Be interesting to see if this helps countries meet their global climate change targets . Not very likely if coal is the alternative in germany’s case. Interesting to hear some english vineyards are planting chablis and pinot noir grapes in readiness for warmer summers. I havnt done a huge amount of travelling over the years. Time running outa bit now. So making up for it. Gl all
Good afternoon all. T, Advance planning of trips seems far more hazardous than my usual book and go. Our Australian leg has been put forward to spring and now looks like Indian trip is for December.
Such a variety of opinions on the economy now which is hardly surprising. I think I favour the 'inflation has peaked camp' and maybe not such a severe recession. We are so good at talking ourselves into recessions. I guess we have to be optimistic. Hard to say with so many unknowns, but isn't that always the case. I have heard some interesting calls on companies like Boo (main problem being disruption and cost of airfreight). Quite a mixed bag of fortunes with no hard and fast trend. Great time to have a pile of cash to invest selectively I feel, or just hang on. GL
Morning all. A welcome cool breeze today. Has been spectacular weather since we went to France and Switzerland in June. Just about acclimatised for India now! Markets surprising confident in the wake of nuclear action from Russia either by deliberate or fabricated accident. Treat (another safe but not so safe stock)the next to get clobbered. I topped up on Friday with ATM (tin miner) Inse (energy advisor that the market has clearer confused with energy provider) and Bought back into ECK (mobile payment in USA) All three companies are doing outstanding business but the market has knocked up to 50% off summer sale!
Bon soir toute la monde! hope you are all well. Obviously not been trading at all. Too busy travelling. Had some epic journeys though, including leaving the laptop on the Swiss/French border. Back now for a couple of months, while organising next trips. Recession/interest rates all compressing value in shares. Most of my businesses still seem to be doing well while their share price heads in the opposite direction. Pointless doing anything with them. Just wait for a recovery which I guess could be many months away still. Good luck all
What a debacle. Anyone would think Boris is running the airlines and travel industry now. EZJ can't even tell the truth about the number of cancelled flights , at least double what they are saying according to industry experts. T We've looked extensively at trains, boats and planes for the fresh trip. Apparently it now costs £800 per week to hire a car at Tolouse airport, which is still two hours from where we are going eventually. Geneva first, then Lyons, back to Geneva and then down to Cahors. A lot of driving about 2000 miles! The kids can't manage Smokie for the last week end so frantically trying to reorganise that. I keep pleading to join house sitters but my loved one (not the dog) won't have it. Christ knows how we manage Australia! Hope you can manage your trips successfully. They say travel broadens the mind. Certainly tests the patience of these poor people having holidays cancelled everywhere at the moment. We seem to have gone from having 'the best travel industry in the world to the worst.' That's not my verdict. Haven't been abroad for 4 years!
Morning all. T nice rise for OCDO. What an extraordinary piece of manipulation. Have seen some advance in my PF recently . Mostly from companies with good visibility and solid growth still in tact. Finally getting some travel plans organised . Off to France next week for 3 weeks , India in the autumn for 3 weeks and Australia in the spring 2 months. All to see friends or relatives. Thats the plan!
Morning all. Indeed Friday again. The risers page always seems to entirely made up of companies I've never heard of on Fridays. Its definitely very random. I think in a market with such low volume it doesn't take a lot to severely dent prices if people insist on selling. MMs have to make a market and it takes two tango.
Hello Doze nice to see a new face or name on the board. I think you have hit the nail on the head as regards GDP. That and house price inflation are key drivers of the economy. Completely unsustainable. The government took seconds to renege on the triple lock pension but now offer £400 to households. I'm thankful for the £150 rebate. We won't be spending it on energy. We wash and shower in cold water now and have had the heating on about twice this winter. Admittedly we are in a pretty mild climate part of the country and live in a town. Even before when I lived in the country I worked hard at being self sufficient. That takes a lot of time, energy and strength which is diminishing rapidly for me now. I still think we have a great future if we manage not to blow each other up! Innovation, AI, robotics , food production are all at rapidly advancing stages. Clearly we at a crucial pivotal few years where we will have to have some massive changes in our climate controls, politics, economies and production. It 's being forced upon us in a somewhat haphazard way. Its not going to be easy, or even pleasant at times but I believe we will win the day or die trying. GL
Morning all. just getting fibre network from BT. O dear we need a new something or other. No surprise there. The worst company in history either before or after Marconi. AXS ( makers of Accoya, rot proof timber and waterproof MDF) announce about 9% raise excluding Pi's . Not a big deal as shares will inevitably drop below placing at. some stage. Always makes people moan though, when actually they are doing Pi's a favour. So nearly bought @£1.45 after fall back from over £1.70. Seem to be making or saving a fortune at the moment from not buying. Really good product but when will they turn a profit. Another company that has to run fast just to stand still. Good value if it goes sub £1.20.
MKS good profits. pulling out of Russia and warns on growth. £1.32 is tempting. The tie up with OCDO seems to have worked out well for Waitrose. Not a sector that has really excelled over 20 years. All these uk supermarkets look cheap being half or considerably less, but the rise of Lidl , Aldi and others just make me think there are better opportunities. Pfizer to make drugs off patent free to poor countries. Very generous, but possibly also a battle against generic drug companies.
We await the next Houdini Boris escape act. At least people (conservatives ) are asking is this idiot really the best person to lead the party? Cameron, May, Johnson. Thats a tough one