The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Morning all. The only index slightly up this morning is the Italian. Asian down. Hang Seng the persistent front runner down 1.5% after Down dipped back again at close. Tory rebellion likely against plan B. No more news on the Omicron death other that the patient died with rather than from it. Doesn't appear to be so much noise coming from other countries about Omicron, or am I not looking in the right places? Difficult to see any bright spots for the market at the moment as they say 'let the trend be your friend.' Boo now sub £1.50! I think PS has called this wrong. Its being shorted to hell. In fact shorters are having a field day which I can only see continuing in to the new year. One thing that would help enormously is positive news on semi conductor production. They are in everything. GL all
T. F1 finish is a farce. Masi made all the wrong decisions. No way can it be fair for Hamiltons 12 second lead to be taken away in that situation. There wasn't enough time to sort out the all the overlapped cars through so they let half through to gift the race to Red Bull. Its difficult for officials but on such a vital last race as this the decisions need to be fair to both teams and clearly they were not. Either toss a coin or award them joint championship.
I'm not saying health and safety should be compromised over business. He has let business down badly by his lack of leadership in negotiations on Brexit. He was a terrible foreign secretary. Boris gave that appalling speech to business leaders about pepper pig's 6 billion contribution to the economy. Sounded like he was on drugs. Andrew Lloyd Webber pointed out Lion King contributed 12 billion. Boris already stated in a previous election 'he was not the man to lead the country.' So who was the fool who persuaded him otherwise?. On top of that he has laughable Churchillan delusions. He can't paint better than Churchill. He can't write as well as Churchill. He never fought like Churchill and he certainly can't lead like Churchill. The only remote similarity is his portly frame.
There is always scaremongering its the only way to sell news . Western governments knee jerk reactions are the problem and many are actively question the wisdom of recent decisions re travel and lockdowns. Working from home again is sensible. Mask wearing is sensible. Trying to not overload the health service is desirable but probably impossible in the coming weeks. The witch hunt on Boris has been brought on entirely by himself. Why ? Because either doesn't know truth or certainly can't recognise. I'm pretty sure he is toast. Even the majority of his own party don't like him now. The chancellor has been very quiet recently, almost deliberately being socially distanced from Boris. I fully expect to see him installed as Prime Minister shortly with Javid back as chancellor. The sooner the better. Boris os a reckless baboon who has severely damaged British business and our reputation worldwide in the same way as Trump did in his country.
NB. All acoustic guitars theses days.
Amazing how well aligned that English cricket team seemed to be to the stock market. Poor performance day 1, great recovery and hope that they are not as bad as they seem . Go to bed with a smile only to wake up to total collapse again.
Wishing Hamilton better luck and Max doesn't resort to Schumaker tactics to win the championship.
Morning all. Cant believe we were off to Newmarket this time last week stopping at a very expensive guitar shop in Stevenage on the way. Played some ludicrously expensive instruments £5,000-£8,000 and relieved to find nothing as good or better than what we already have! Although replacement value would probably be more than we could afford now.
PS from Stockopedia in very sanguine mood this morning nursing "probably much larger paper losses than many of you." The important thing being they are all financially sound and capable of recovery if patient. His synopsis on COVID being like Spanish flu seems quite real. That it mutated into milder variants too, becoming weaker but more transmissible before dying out altogether seems at least a possibility that that is what is happening with Omicron now.
Interesting and not surprising our falling GDP has put the skid on a rate rise. Not the there won't be one sometime because of inflation being likely to surpass 5% next year.
I've warned all my female friends to keep wide birth around Boris as it seems he is far more virulent than any COVID variant.
As for when is a party not a party, its a bit like tory government inability to distinguish between right and wrong, truth and fiction. When Boris originally challenged May for the leadership he concluded 'he was alas, not the man to lead this country.' His one honest and correct deduction. The mounting global political games look far too big for populists like Macron and Johnson to negotiate responsibly. The trouble is what are the alternatives? Dame Harman thinks Labour are capable and ready. I think its more likely that Boris will be next in a long line of replaced Tory Prime Ministers. Have a good weekend
Morning all. Thanks all. it was great to get away after several aborted attempts in the summer. partly due to getting my partner's son off to Australia, not to mention the instantly changing travel rules!
T I think we are in a very different situation from the beginning of the pandemic. The tension and madness between the super powers, energy crisis, supply chain, inflation etc. Stock was at absolutely giveaway prices and just about any and everything was going up for a strong recovery. There has been a recovery of sorts but nobody seems that confident that there is any strength in the rebound. There are a few companies around that actually have more cash than their market cap and many that have between 20 and 50% in cash. Their prices just keep falling. Maybe takeover potential but not much business certainty and very few able to offer future earnings guidance as worried about being clobbered if they don't fulfil the target. Very uncertain times. Never been good at second guessing the market accept last year anyone and everyone was doing it to a greater or lesser extent and thats what kept the momentum going. Now the reality is unravelling stock like Boo and others on a PE of 40 + are being reassessed. If I did shorting I would probably short the FTSE right now. I can see value right now but for how long I'm not so sure. That should make it go up!
Just back from a wedding near Newmarket. My first visit and experienced the best Indian meal I have ever had. I do only have one once every ten years but this was 'modern' Indian cuisine. Sensational food. The wedding was in an old medieval hall, so I spent most of my time stoking up an enormous log fire and trips to the bar. Plenty of social distancing and howling drafts. It had been rescheduled from the summer so it was take this offer or wait for a slot in 2023!
There seems no question that Offcron is highly infectious, but no hard evidence of how dangerous it could turn out to be particularly if hoards of young people refuse to vaccinate. Looks like herd immunity could be reached by the spring at this rate. I'd certainly opt for anything that helps reduce the strength of the illness, but I do sympathise with people's personal preferences if its not simply about being rebel without a clue, which sadly a lot of them are.
Some mouthwateringly tempting buys. Still resisting the urge to buy. Impossible to call the bottom yet. Amazed at the strength of travel stock. There are definitely some odd games going on. A private school in Switzerland has closed because of 2 cases of the new virus. I suppose they would have closed for Christmas anyway next week, so might have been quite sensible.
I'm planning to ride this out till the new year as regards trading. Good luck all
M . A lovely thought, song and dance of a very different class. Yep I keep getting tempted by MCRO. Just a tad worried about their debt, simply with Saga, time is ticking away. I'm focussed on Japan again. Many of the trusts I sold their are well under what I sold them for. As along term bet I think they have some of the best potential. Cant trade this uncertainty and conflicting news, but N4p has come back to life and still hoping that they will be able to improve vaccine delivery and storage. ANic have dropped a bombshell with another placing. Do I take part or just buy more below the placing sp which it already is, except they are offering 2 year warrants again. Good luck with MCRO. Great price
D. Your'e lucky that letter is still available and welcome! C is on temporary leave abs S has been in France for a few months. I think he created this board along with T. we have a couple of N's an M, a V, a TD, Now we have a DJ. That should liven things up. Lion trust is an excellent trust and hold many of the same investments as me. In fact I often check institutional holders of stock especially with small caps. If you like trading you will find plenty of that here, or a mix of trading and holding. I'm more of a holder or trades that went wrong kind of investor! Very good luck. Any questions and you are sure to get a variety of replies.
Morning all. Its not a secret that Boris is a clown. He plays the part well. Is there something a little more sinister behind the red nose, big feet and Ken Dodd hairstyle. I sent and email to our tory MP demanding he be sectioned. Then of course yet another Etonian of the Rees Mogg breed is now under scrutiny for fans and grants etc. They are all from a very different planet. Whilst they moan and begrudge tax credits to help survival living they extract millions to bud their empires. Our ex MP Charlie boy Elphick is now enjoying the scrutiny of his fines to how the tax payer can help maintain this convicted sex offender. Don't suppose he went to Eton by any chance. Is doing something with a dead pig an offence these days. ? Not if you're from Eton apparently
Morning all. the madness continues. Today Javid is saying no need to cancel Christmas parties. Unfortunately much of the damage has already been done.business can't plan for every knee jerk reaction of this government. Restaurants holiday/travel are unsurprisingly seeing huge cancellations and travel deferrals. The market has gleefully bounced. Not because of positive news on vaccines or slower COVID rates but because of Javid's decided its ok to party whatever.Maybe some will get rebooked and then probably cancelled again next week on new media hysteria. Furlough is now gone ,so this gets a whole lot more serious. Optimistically, it should blow over in a few months rather than a few hours. Shall we pull the crackers now just in case?
T the actual words on share cast are 'Moderna boss casts doubts on efficacy of vaccines.' Thats obvious as they a have been testing them for a while but I think its too early to say for sure. I have read other reports that say they are pretty sure some vaccines will provide protections while other say the can tweak and be ready to roll within 6-12 weeks. What is clear is corona Vitus is rampant and probably higher than even uk figures are recording. Either we will reach herd immunity before new vaccines can be delivered or the other one whatever that is! Best wishes. stay strong and remember it is all bull****e anyway
morning all. Good to see all is calm here with the Red Brigade. I do remember Astra saying that it was quite likely that a mutation would eventually evade the vaccine but that having built the footprint it would be simple to tweak. Obviously the media doesn't remember any of that. Has Boris ever heard of diplomacy? He should be sectioned. We don't need a buffoon for PM on top of everything else. Baked beans for Christmas anyone?
Apologies for the ramble T. Its been a long slow decline since June.So a lot of pent up frustration as you say. I guess the signs have been there and many made the switch back to the large caps which has been a smart move in some cases but far from all. Old stalwarts, Reckits and Unilever have struggled. Supermarkets have done well despite stiff competition. Idl set to open 1100 new stores in Uk over next 3/4 years, while the big boys have been trying to offload stores. Many industrials are having to make big changes both in business direction and for climate change targets. Thanksgiving today so no US input. GL
Morning all/ T Think we are entitled to a moan. Saga hit year high towards the end of June at £4.60. Obviously people thought Covid was over. As NB points out Evergrande sent shockwaves around the world but before that Evergreen started the supply chain debacle by blocking the Suez. We have seen the end of lock down and the mega boost to online shopping. Not that is gone away but it has dramatically reduced and that makes growth charts look like they have fallen off a cliff. The disruption in travel and total lack of plan in Europe to fight Covid. The end of Merkel era. First female prime minister in Sweden celebrates by resigning within hours of taking office. Stock that report in line trading gets thumbs down, only evidence of substantial growth sees any kind of uplift. Energy crisis and inflation both have impacted . Yet the footsie somehow is over 7000. Feels like a crash has already happened. I've got about 4 stock up substantially which I'm feeling maybe I should have sold but it counterbalances some of my worst performers which are pretty bad. I do feel most of my stocks have good balance sheets are well financed, cash generating and balances that make up between 20 to even 50% of market cap. Glad I sat on my hands yesterday and can't see that situation changing until the new year or March/April. Sagas two cruise ships must be pulling in 10 million a month at even half capacity. Don't know how many trips they are currently doing though. Obviously the Rhine river cruises won't be doings well but they too have been operational. Don't think the market is seeing further than the end of the bow there. Apart from that the government has all the characteristics of some shambles of some monolithic sloth and of course Brexit is continuing to undermine business. travel. and immigration. Amazing that its taken 35 drownings to wake up the French and British governments up for a day anyway.
Morning all. Trying really hard to sit on hands again. Temptation is enormous to buy at the moment. The fact is of my three last 'bargain' purchases two are down and only 1 up after enormous fall. Let the trend be your friend and its a right barsteward at the moment! Even Sir Roger's million buy hasn't halted the decline in Saga. They have two ships sailing with 800 passengers (full complement under current restrictions). They only hold 999. which was one of their advantages over the bigger ships in current climate that hold 3-6000 passengers. Travel arm must be doing better than just paying for itself now. Never seen so many adverts for cruises on tele. Apparently quite a few deferrals due to upsurge in COVID. We had Moderna top up jab yesterday after the interview with AstraZenica CEO explaining how vaccines work on 'Tcells' and advising everyone to get jabbed again. What he didn't say was Astra's vaccine is not available for top up which caused some consternation amongst a few in in the queue. I know they say dont mix grape and grain but who knows what goes in the vein, or is it the muscle? That didn't rhyme quite so well. GL
Will be great to have you back S. We need someone with deep pockets to get the market moving again! T meant to watch Wales game after. Will try and watch it sometime . Never watched so much over the last three weeks. It was the first time 3 northern hemisphere teams have beaten 3 southern hemisphere teams on same day since 2002. Most remarkable to me was it was 1973 the last time the French beat the All Blacks on home turf. At one stage it looked like that win was slipping away too.
Morning all. market still very tetchy. Good news is more or less ignored and any trips gets stock absolutely whacked. Covid case records in Europe and the demonstrations against the smallest inconvenience like wearing a mask in public places are completely over the top. It almost seems like some people are just looking for an excuse to rebel. The way it gets reported doesn't help.
The German numbers are large but still smaller than us. When I see numbers in poorer European countries like Hungry, Bulgaria and Lithuania at nearly twice the rate per capita of the rich European countries it does make you wonder what the game is here. India has one of the lowest rates per capita in the world. That is simply not credible.
I'm still not seeing evidence of supply chains being sorted yet particularly in the manufacture of chips. This whole situation looks suspiciously deliberately engineered to me.
Everyone raving about the French performance against the All Blacks. It was impressive. I think Ireland won a more consistant match against the All Blacks last weekend.
The real titans for me were the way England managed to turn the tide on South Africa at a point where it looked like they were going to be completely overwhelmed physically. Their best performance in years, partly thanks to Farrel being immobile I feel as good a player as he has been. Smith must be our most reliable kicker now. and has given oppositions something different to calculate. And what can you say about Lewis! He definitely wants another one
Hi all. G4M the latest victim of this vicious market, Another one the made huge gains during and because of the pandemic. Edmund Shing of Paris bas released some sailing news on how much online retailers, clothes video games etc improved revenue through lockdown, Averaging a five fold increase. So hardly surprising that we re now seeing some pull back, although Brexit and supply chain also blamed.
I watched a webinar presentation of one of my stocks MWE on Monday. Am excellent presentation with anew phase in growth expected next year. The shares ended the session down slightly. IC release a a buy recommendation and the shares shot up 7% today. Just about sums up this market. A lot of pent up buyers waiting to be pointed in a promising direction. Still plenty of nervousness and low volumes
possibly ETFs Topdog? Have held investment trusts and ETFs. There are a lot of them and ETFs are increasingly popular. ETFs are very specific. Good if you want to specialise in a particular sector like metals, copper,gold, silver, food, cybersecurity, etc. Investment trusts tend to have a wide range across sectors.
Yes NB great some great performances. Enjoyed watching Georgia run a couple of tries in against France and finally Hamilton pulls all the stops out to win in Brazil to keep the championship alive. Just incredible