The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Morning all just. Another cold bright day. Went for a six miler yesterday, and didn't realise how icy the wind was and and underdressed I was. Thankfully we took some soup which possibly saved my life!. The dog slept the rest of the day as did the market. Daren't do much with the Dow on holiday and seems set to fall 1% today. Its pretty hazardous out there where even being comfortably ahead of revised expectations dent seem to count for much. Being watching a couple of episodes of sell it to the city on PI world where 3 private investors pitch their best investment idea to 3 fund managers for feed back and questions.
Glad I did because I was considering buying back into a picks and shovels company CAPD which I did ok with last year. Its one of those annoying stock where nobody knows quite why it seems so cheap. That is until one of the fund makers asks why they had a fund raise at 60p last year and is now buying back shares at 90p this year! Its a fair point but the answer is they need to raise the capital to raise the money to gain the contracts to get the share price to where it is now. More worryingly to one manager is their investment in the companies they mine for in Africa. It has certainly made me think again. These pitches are a great idea. Would like to see some better quality stock discussed. No real confidence returned to the market yet, so expect some better buying ops end of month.
Morning all. Interesting rates and inflation back on the agenda. The tennis match goes on . Advantage Morrison.
T. Hope to god JVT wasn't at the party too. Could be a matter of principal. I think a list of names should be published at least to those investigating maybe not publicly. As bad jokes go I think this cracker has to be the Finale for Boris. Love to be a fly on the wall at his weekly audience with Queeny. Toast!
I think Nadal summed it up well on Djokovic, 'we are all free to make our own decisions, but they have consequences.' Wonder how Wimbledon will play it this year. I think Nadal will have 95% of the spectators behind him and Federer if they both play
T agree on the frosty morning front, should kill a few bugs. Don't blame you taking OCDO profit. Very hard to predict that business. Hope the robots don't have another collision. They fended off an infringement case brought by the big automation Norwegian competitor which I thought would be a boost but seems have done little for sentiment. Cant just be about grocery deliveries. NB I see someone else mentions 10% inflation in America this morning which is upsetting Asia. The Economist says people don't realise how well the Japanese economy is doing, including the Japanese presumably. They are reporting a surge in mild omicron.
O the ironies keep coming: Novak Djokovic was drawn against fellow Serb Miomir Kecmanovic today. Presumably if one is ruled out the other will have to isolate, or one of them will be knocked out in the first round anyway. Excellent. Looks like a happy ending all round with everyone getting egg or coronavirus on their face.
Well done T. Wondered who'd be first back into OCDO! Kind of ironic how that and MKS have had a complete switch of fortunes. To think they had a placing at £18 ? a year ago. The CEO gets a bunch of shares when it hits £40, so he's got some work to do. Must be some value at £15.40. Last time I looked it washer £16.
Cnic bounced nicely this afternoon for me. Definitely some shinigans there. (thats especially for you V!) CIR (results/update possibly tomorrow) also popped a bit more hoping for both these to double in due course. BEG a bit quiet after small acquisition but pretty cheap, so may get some more of them. Market seems easily manipulated with these low volumes, so if you believe in a stock and it looks too cheap, it probably is. GL
I swear all the my spellings are wrongly autocorrected by google. . Makes me look like I write absolute gibberish! Picked up some BEG this morning, which would please C. Never thought they would be in the £1.20s again and same with CNIC, added a few more which has been brutally and ludicrously sold off
T. Agree. American debt has always been terrifying. I've been to parties I can't remember. Seems Boris's aid, who I've already forgotten the name of, is still smarting from his unusually long winded eye sight test to Barnard Castle and determined to get a knife in anywhere. I think the whole episode is way out of proportion compared to Afghanistan, Brexit and of course Djocovic, who it now looks is even more slippery than Boris blaming his agent now. I'm glad the media have got the priorities write making Djocovic front page concern to us all. We so cruel about underpaid , underprivileged tennis stars who can change the world by knocking a rubber felted ball over a net. It is just impossible to comprehend the hardship they endure lying their asses off.
Morning troops. NB billionaires are new wrong! They have so many fingers in so many pies they are always right about something. It does look as thought the interest rate hysteria got a bit overblown. As I said last week the market gets easily spooked by surprises and the notes from a fed meeting before Christmas obviously wrong footed the new year market. I couldn't understand the sudden weakness in the Asian markets. Was it omicron? was it interest rates? Looks like the panic is subsiding on both fronts after some pretty irrational selling. Lets hope thats all it was. GL
Treading water is about right. Quite surprised the fuse is as high as it is given the news. Generally thats how markets work.So log as he news is out there the market is ok. Its surprises it doesn't like. SO when every hug is looking rosy thats the time to be on your guard. Speaking of which I just had another payment taken out by AVST . Very clever these security companies and I'm not sure they actually do anything. I get regular messages saying things like 'oo close miss thereof you may this new product for 2.99 a month it will give you extra protection.' So I told them the only protection I need is for my bank account from them. Probably get hacked now. Certainly hacked off with them. Its like theft by stealth.
I was going through my spam box and I found an e christmas card from Concurrent Technology! Thats a first. I used to get one from a broker years ago but never a company I'm invested in. Shame their share price has sunk again, one of many
NB I take your point on small interest rise. The problem is the reason for the rr is inflation which has been a rather bigger rise. They have to be careful not to spiral things up.Businesses are already having to put up prices because of labour cost rises and of course energy , transport etc. Its a fine balance not to kill off growth with GDP being pretty low already in many countries thanks to lockdown. The theory is to containing inflation so rates don't need to rise more than once this year, which looks pretty likely to be honest.
NB. If you have Lions Trust or Premier Miton, you've definitely got them. About 45% owned by Trusts, directors and family. Premier tend to be a bit impatient so hoping they don't try and sell anymore as they can hit a lot of small companies in the goolies unless they offload to another trust. Lions Trust are more into pensions so a bit more patient I hope. Bit of a mixed day. Feds next meeting not till Jan 25th. so think we will be seesawing around again fro a couple of weeks but seems a pretty good chance US rates will rise possibly sooner than March. Just as it was looking like lift off...
Morning all . Hawkish Fed withdrawing stimulus is the new mix in this compost of inflation, supply chain, and general confusion. The Japanese play isn't turning out quite how I hoped. Another long trade! On the bright side CNC seems to have overcome chip shortage . They make specialist semi conductor boards mostly for security services. Another one of these tiny British companies that play a rather enormous role in counties defence systems. Questions about growth but potential in 5g and Ai. Probably my oldest stock having traded for about 20 years, nut now a rather larger and probably more permanent holding for the foreseeable as long as they keep paying 3.5% div and rising annually. Not many stock you can say that about these days. People get impatient with it which being small makes it illiquid at times. A lot of retirements and the death of the founder havn't helped. Pretty impressive new team has been assembled and they have negotiated a difficult year with all these supply chain problems admirably. Not a quick bucker but the 20 year graph says it all really for the patient.
DJ. Just been reading up on Avon by Scot on Stockopedia and Naked trader who was bragging about how much he had invested in and now trying to say he hasn't lost that much. Really not sure about this guy. He has a huge following and has written several books about trading, Why would you do that if making millions on the stock market.
P. Scot is more of an accountant but is just beginning to understand his own fallibility for the second time. I and he have been looking at it as a possible new investor and can't say either are tempted yet. Avon is complicated not least by the director purchases at 20 and 30 quid. Do they actually know what's going on? They have on going supply chain issues that could further disrupt. The body armour failure was perhaps bad luck , but thats why products are tested to destruction. Some brokers seem to think its recoverable but likely to take time. Its a big knock. Depends a lot on your timescale and could there still some bad news to come with supply chain problems.
Not an enviable decision to make. Could your money make back some of the loss or even all of it elsewhere. Can you set it off against taxable gains this year or next? You would need to be fairly sure you are not going to compound losses in another investment. It does look as though the market is on the up. You could sell half the holding and see how that goes. Its particularly difficult to make these decisions when the whole market has been in a down trend. Have been in the same quandary myself with some smaller stocks. Easy decision for me because there has been zero liquidity in them! but also I think given a better risk appetite now appearing they should recover a fair bit. There are no crystal balls I'm afraid, all we can do is offer aspects to look at which you probably already have and relate it to your overall positions somehow. Good luck
I think you are right T on the over exuberance of travel stock. I took decent profits on Saga and BRWm this morning to kick off the new year. CIR and ATM going well and other stock showing signs of life. Over 200,000 new UK Covid cases today as expected but hard to see how we can have any realistic travel plans . Having said that we are beginning to look at a possible trip to India in June . Never been, and last aborted trip having got halfway there hitch hiking in 1972. That was fun!
Good morning all . Thanks for your replies to research areas. Seems we do fairly similar things. Pretty keen start on the markets.
Sources of information and update on Stocko. I went up 100 places on new years eve thanks to a little spurt from Saga so actually finished 1180th out of about 4000. Although I am not that confident in Stockopedia's figures. Worked out was actually up about 15%. No matter its been interesting with the analysis of our picks with a a yearly graph performance showing we nearly all had a general rise to about June and a big slide down the snake in September of varying degrees. I think the worst punter was down 70% over 5 picks. and even one guy having picked stock rated by stockopedia at an average of 82 out of 100, showed a fall of 35%. My ratings of stock averaged about 45. So my feelings on that information is they need to get a new computer its complete bunkum.
There is a lot of useful information and they do have some useful contributions from people in the industry, fund managers and freelance journalists. Probably won't renew subscription. Where else can you look? Pi World does really good interviews with small cap directors and fund managers via podcasts . Director talk also do the same and you tube also have endless interviews. I have various email free subscriptions from Edison, Ballie Gifford etc. I delete most of them before I read them. I get about 1 interesting article out of about 100. Avoid mags, papers and tip sheets. Every time a share gets tipped it goes up for about two days and then gets sold off. Piers Morgan demonstrated how that worked when he edited the Daily Mirror, if he actually did ever edit anything. So even Paul Scot has admitted he needs to alter his buy and hold strategy. I can guarantee what ever strategy you use one year won't work the next. I traded too much in 2020 and not enough in 2021. So easy with hind sight. I guess we're a bit like farmers, never truly satisfied whatever the result. There I go with the first post of the year way over length! Would be interested to hear how any of you guys gather information on potential investments. Happy hunting
Good morning all. Looks like I won't be going on a free trip for two to New York for the winner of this years Stocko challenge. I will finish about 1200 and something for my 5 top stock picks which gave me an average gain of 9.9%. Fortunately I sold them all making a much bigger gain in the Spring. It runs from Jan 1-Dec 31). The winner is running away with over 700% gain in stocks that are rated from 0 to about 20 out of 100. Many are Australian minerals with not a single British stock in sight. In fact most of the top picks are companies I've never heard of with very low stockopedia ratings. You have to speculate to accumulate and at the bottom of the tables nursing massive losses in the 4000s are similar sounding companies with similar ratings as one would expectt. Also a fair few in the 20% gain area for investor picks of supermarkets, insurance and energy discovery stocks. Retail picks obviously didn't do at all well this year. It has undeniably been a year for the FTSE 100 crawling to 7,400. That doesn't account for the worst performers exiting the 100 and the best entering the 100. So in my view that is a totally false figure which despite that , over 21 years a gain of about 5%. In the words of Frankie Boyle 'Its manipulation of manipulation'.
Look forward to chipping away at the coal face with you all next year! Good luck, Good health, and a Happy New Year O
Thank you all for your company and good humour over this testing year. May my posts be shorter and our rising trends be longer. S don't venture too far in your vintage automobiles. I think the emergency service wait times maybe a bit stretched! Merry Christmas everyone O
Afternoon. all. Long walk this morning along a misty deserted coast. Not even many golfers out today. So Smokey really enjoyed his run. Dow expected to rise for 3rd successive day following on the Asian tentative climb. Seems to be a lot more relaxed about COVID although the share volume of patients is a concern still. My eldest son is not sure if he had it having had about four tests. 1 inconclusive, 1 positive and 2 negatives. Just drip feeding a bit more in each day now.
Dow seems happy. Asia held its ground and so did the FTSE. Mcro and Saga rebounding well from sustained sell off. Hope it continues. Omicron is not the only drag on the market though. Economic stimulation is finished apparently. Rishi has come up with £1.6 billion to help hospitality who have had the rug pulled from under them. Its a very mixed bag. Hopefully we are set fair for Christmas but should all kick off again in the New Year. Guess the markets will be open most of next week. Not a lie about the short term. Longer term I am really excited about my holdings. Trouble is it could take some of them a couple of years at least to reach full potential.