The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
There's the seasonality pattern. Nearly done then.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7jPoZdWYAAx97H?format=png&name=small
Look how many shares are wiped out only 15% of them above the 50 day moving average. These signals can be clues to what's next.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1906477/chartbook/257165874
Put/call ratio. Look at the 3 times it was like this. Everybody short them boom and back to business. Not long to go. Come on RR and the FTSE.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7rPZ_qXsAAObVc?format=png&name=900x900
Healthy US job figures today so maybe rates kept high for a while yet ?
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
Bond yield still going up..
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
RR doesn't have to hit £2 . The markets are very oversold short term. Suddenly there'll be a bounce and all will be forgotten. Hang in I'm still positive . Recession is more to fear than what's happening now and that's not on the cards either.
RR is only down 10% from a tremendous run this year . It could have happened without the US markets. That's the way it goes . Give it time.
Here's 5% corrections below . Loads of them nearly every year.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7QjWt7WwAA6HYW.jpg
Read on ..now relax.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/01/how-often-should-you-expect-a-stock-market-correction/
https://www.covenantwealthadvisors.com/post/understanding-stock-market-corrections-and-crashes
New investors and not so new this is a decent UK based channel. It's not about single stocks but the general basics .
https://www.youtube.com/@Pensioncraft
US calls the shots and always been like this. Why ? Probably because it's 62% of the global equity market. The UK is just 3.9% . First lesson follow the US markets as well as your own investments.
https://www.msci.com/research-and-insights/visualizing-investment-data/acwi-imi-complete-geographic-breakdown
Today FTSE closed at 4.30pm and from the following chart that's around 4240 on the SP500 . Use that as a guide to the next days opening in UK 8.am. Basically ( not always) that' gives direction . Higher than 4240 FTSE up and lower FTSE down. Remember futures are trading all night so that has an effect as well.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
FTSE in black and SP500 in orange . Running pretty similar majority of time but not always. If you've invested in a single stock it can go against the grain if it's growing in value and of course perform even worse if prospects are poor. So a bit of both regarding single stocks. RR going well this year as earnings are improving so outperforming.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=UK%3AUKX&time=6&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=SP500&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=64&style=320&size=2&x=48&y=17&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15
All opinions and always volatility so what's new. Simplest way to invest in equities today is a global tracker which spreads your risk internationally. MSCI World Index has returned 50% in 5 years and 190% in 10 years including dividends. So a great challenge to beat the market.(See chart below)
https://www2.trustnet.com/Tools/Charting.aspx?typeCode=NM990100,NUKX
If you're not outperforming that after years then it's time to question your strategy. AIM can blow you out of the water and FTSE has underperformed recent years. If you are making a good return stock picking then fine .
Markets do go sideways but that doesn't mean stock picking performs the same. My view is a rally when rates peak as history suggests . Then who knows ? If rates are cut that'll mean the economy is in trouble and probably the stock market with it.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FE_eyeLXEAY6jG8?format=jpg&name=900x900
Cuts can mean bad news. Hope not.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Fed-Funds-and-Bear-Markets.jpg
Nobody knows for sure where anything is heading but technical analysis ( TA ) is a guide based on probability short term. It's still guesswork. Nobody can advise but that's only one opinion of many out there. Longer term RR is in the recovery phase after many years of disappointment. More to come as they say.
That chart can be seen below where RR is bang on the 50 MA. Doesn't tell you anything really. It doesn't have to fall further. RSI has moved below the centre line and all it's showing is short term weakness. We all know that as the price was above 230p days ago.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=UK%3ARR&time=6&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=50&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=2&type=4&style=320&size=2&x=55&y=16&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
Worldwide markets have been falling so RR has joined in with the general movement. For me and I keep saying it all to do with rising bond rates . FED keeping rates higher for longer.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
So bond prices are the inverse to rising yields above and SP500 is running in the same direction. Hope that helps.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=US%3ATLT&time=5&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=SP500&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=64&style=320&size=2&x=43&y=13&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15
History suggests no..
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/27/will-a-government-shutdown-hurt-your-portfolio.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/28/investing/premarket-stocks-trading-government-shutdown/index.html
Still say it's " higher for longer " with rates which has caused a slight correction .All normal in a year . There again it's the seasonal lull then Santa rally. Bring it on.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
Tea leaves have it overbought. Let's see. RSI banging on the top and divergence.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7Lz-W6XAAAXQjv?format=jpg&name=900x900
There's that hammer candle on the SP500..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX
Number of stocks above the 50 day moving average NYSE. Oversold BUY. Let's see.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1906477/chartbook/257165874
FEB sell was 16000 , March buy was 14500 , JULY sell was 16500 and todays buy 15500. Tea leaves and data.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=US%3ANYA
Well I pee in the watering can and feed my grass and it grows very well and I'm not joking. ( google it !! )
Anyway I'll bore you with the tea leaves again . Early SEPT I posted bought 200p , sold 220p and today I joined the team with a buy at 217p this morning ( jumped in to soon never mind ) .
Based on my favoured set up below. Now note todays candle . A hammer which can be bullish.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=UK%3ARR&x=0&y=0&time=6&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=9&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=256&lf3=4&type=4&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
There you go..happy hunting.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hammer.asp
That's the way it is . US running the show as it's worth over 60% of world market cap. Always been like this and it's a lesson to learn . One eye on your share purchase and another on global markets. Not all US stocks are tech so many are valued similar to UK (maybe a bit of premium). If average sock in US falls then others will normally follow and visa versa. FTSE stocks make well over 50% sales from overseas so that's another concern. Anyway it'll be over soon and a rebound. Unless it's a crash lol!!!
US SP500 is oversold in the daily timeframe . Look at RSI above chart it's on the bottom and not often this happens in daily. Load Slow stochastic and Williams and they'll be on the bottom. So there's hope of a rebound. Yesterdays candle looks like it touched a gap from early JUNE.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7GXcwvW4AAcP63?format=jpg&name=900x900
RR now down nearly 10% from highs and also oversold.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=UK%3ARR&x=0&y=0&time=6&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=9&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=256&lf3=4&type=4&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
Any decent updates for RR will change all that. Think the problems are the US markets pulling the rest down. Bond yields are rising and rising fast despite the idea the FED are done with rate rises and inflation concerns.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
Seasonality chart suggests a lull AUG-OCT.
https://charts.equityclock.com/sp-500-index-seasonal-chart
This one was posted early AUG and is a seasonality chart of pre election year. Look at the three arrows of the main indices on the chart as the forecast . Playing out so far. You can't under estimate all this data . Why that's the way it is . Should be a year end rally soon. Lets see ?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3VGIBnWMAEaBgL?format=png&name=small
TA tea leaves have all the indicators at the lower end and well oversold. As I say any good updates from RR will lift share price as it's flavour of the month . It's only pennies down from recent highs at the end of the day.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27848000232&a=226295345&listNum=1
Not the answer but I'll add this. Let's say you've got to pay some CGtax if you sell in next few tax years . There's a possibility to reinvest proceeds into a SIPP pension and claim tax relief on the payments. Yes it's in there for years but it's got a chance to grow. SIPP is no different to ISA for fund and share buying. A good SIPP provider will have a decent selection. Just a thought.
GWM..No funds for years now as buy and hold can take years to show reasonable returns . I'd rather take a chance trading the likes of ISF , VJPN, VUSA , VERX, etc. All ETF's representing each country. All shares I trade are UK based and ones I understand. Using technical analysis ( tea leaves) for positions of buy and sell . Holding in pension funds is a long term investment so that's different to trading. Started with funds years ago and markets crashed two or three times in space of 20 years so that was enough for me. Imagine being no further forward than a bank account after all that time. It happens as history suggests.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhCv7GqUwAACMF8?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FE_eyeLXEAY6jG8?format=jpg&name=900x900
Not sure but it looks like you are still subject to CGTax allowances as you sell or transfer to Bed and ISA. No doubt you can transfer £20,000 a tax year but previous profits might exceed limits.
https://blog.moneyfarm.com/en/isas/bed-and-isa-meaning-rules-pros-cons/
https://www.barclays.co.uk/investments/moving-investments/more-about-bed-and-isa/
ON COAST why vwrl please???? very interested why you favour this over jp morgon global growth and income.
I'd don't favour anything I was highlighting the FTSE as a set and forget investment . That's why I mentioned a simple global tracker as against a FTSE tracker . VWRL and other world trackers are well diversified and not all eggs in one basket. Long term the MSCI World Index has averaged 11% since launch in 1969 not many funds do that. Nothing wrong with JPM growth and income it's done well.
https://www2.trustnet.com/Tools/Charting.aspx?typeCode=NM990100,FITJMO
FTSE tracker hasn't..look at annualised tab and world tracker is 11% since launch and FTSE just 5%. That's a few decades. All income is included.
https://www2.trustnet.com/Tools/Charting.aspx?typeCode=NM990100,NUKX
Me well I buy all kinds in the UK and I'm not against it. Trade FTSE tracker ISF.L and various shares including RR. No emotion attached as it hurts your head.
FTSE is full of slow tankers regardless with a bit of growth. In year 2000 it stood at 6900 and now 7600 apart from the decent dividends that's poor.
https://www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/institutional/insights/how-should-investors-respond-to-the-stock-market-s-dwindling-status-/
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-sad-decline-of-the-london-stock-market/
Buy a global tracker instead such as VWRL. Look at the top 10 countries tab on here and UK is just 3.7% of market cap.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vanguard-ftse-all-world-ucits-etf-usd-dist
If that really is a possibility another 10K in ISA then all it's doing is giving the wealthy more tax relief. 60K in a pension a year last budget and 30K ? in an ISA isn't what ordinary folk do with their cash.
When a share is flavour of the month such as RR it often flatlines and doesn't run with the general market . Charts can give clues but not the result you might want. Anyway in the weekly timeframe RR is way overbought and there's divergence between price and lower indicators . Didn't work out at the start of the year and still rallied higher.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=UK%3ARR&time=9&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=5&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=256&lf3=0&type=64&style=320&size=2&x=62&y=10&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
The FTSE is holding up and overbought so there's a positive for RR.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=UK%3AUKX&x=68&y=15&time=5&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=5&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=256&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
In the US the SP500 has broke down and is now oversold sort term . So what's to happen ? Don't ask me as it's not very often this happens. Good old tea leaves. Lol !
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=US%3ASPX&x=55&y=12&time=5&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=5&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=256&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
There's a monthly view with a 5 period Moving average and lower indicators. It's stretched above the MA and lower indicators are overbought . That doesn't mean it can't remain that way as the chart clearly shows it's been overbought since DEC .
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=UK%3ARR&time=9&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=3&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=5&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=256&lf3=0&type=64&style=320&size=2&x=52&y=5&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
Short term it's heading oversold and broke through a tight 9 day MA. Again that doesn't mean it can remain oversold for a while yet. At the end of the day RR is in flavour of the month until it's not . Lol!!
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=UK%3ARR&time=6&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=9&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=256&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=2&x=16&y=12&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
The seasonality chart suggests a sluggish period AUG-OCT. So far that's it.
https://charts.equityclock.com/sp-500-index-seasonal-chart