Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Some decent information here...
https://moneyforums.citywire.co.uk/yaf_topics11_Retirement.aspx
https://moneyforums.citywire.co.uk/yaf_postst3831_Understanding-the-25--SIPP-tax-free-process.aspx
Guessing it's all about tax now if in drawdown otherwise you could use up 20 grand a year ISA allowance .
What is going to happen in FEB ? Annual results yes . Today RR have issued guidance and expectations are in line . If analysts have it wrong then RR would have mentioned this. That's what updates are for ? Maybe I've got it wrong ?
So 2022 forecast is Net sales £11.5bn and PreTax Profit £180 million .Earnings per share 1p and Zero dividend. Are the shares going to the moon on those results ?
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/financials/
RR have stated results will be in line with expectations. Analysts have plotted the estimates for the next few years and they've never moved in recent weeks. I've posted this link dozens of times since covid and expectations in 2021 were earnings per share 9p for 2023 . That has changed this year and is now 4p . Basically shares have gone from 150p to 75p which makes sense. Earnings are normally key to progress. Even 2024 is 7p which is a reasonable P/E of 11 . Better off bookmarking these links as listen to chat. All the news is on the feeds.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/financials/
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/consensus/
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/revisions/
Out of our hands all this. Every crisis in history has resulted in shock inflation. Commodity prices go to the moon .
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpXz-ORVQAAGf8D?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeOEQ5hWYAMfnLH?format=jpg&name=900x900
So interest rates go up to counter inflation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYDN7BzVUAAsgbc?format=jpg&name=medium
https://monevator-monevator.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/base-rates-vs-inflation.jpg
Jobs report out today better than forecast. Can't see FED doing any other than 0.75% . Inflation is still too high.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fgj5il8VQAIpqFC?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgeHpv5XkAA1Zci?format=jpg&name=small
I buy and sell there's nothing wrong in that . Recently 93 sell and buy 65 and sell 76 all done with a few indicators and moving averages in the daily timeframe . Technical Analysis (TA) or the tea leaves whatever you want to call it.
A summary from today on here and if you look at the chart it shows one of my indicators , slow stochastic, on the top of it's range. Doesn't have to play out but it's out there .
https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/news-and-analysis/rolls-royce-shares-up-12-in-the-last-month
This long term holding stuff ? Let's be honest RR is one of the worst performers in the history of the FTSE 100 going back 35 years. Why on earth would you be happy holding this watching it wipe you out. Who are the long term holders . Those that bought 10 years and more ago . ? That's a long term holder . Buying and selling , averaging down etc are no different to traders .
Most have seen this as an opportunity to pick up a stock at low levels and hope for recover.
Set this chart to MAX and just let all that sink in. The only people who made any money were those that bought in that golden period around 2005 - 2013. RR ex employee 30 years service .
https://tradingeconomics.com/rr:ln
Not advice but you need to understand risk and volatility. Can you stomach 50% falls in equities ? If not then you need to dial down your risk and go for a multi asset fund.
Here's the MSCI World Index which covers thousands of international companies. You can get a simple global tracker which reflects this but it'll be volatile as above at times. Over time it's performed over 10% a year.
https://www2.trustnet.com/Tools/Charting.aspx?typeCode=NM990100
The more cautious approach...
https://www2.trustnet.com/Tools/Charting.aspx?typeCode=NUKX,NB:AFIA,NB:AFIB,NB:AFIC
Some ideas..
https://www.hsbc.co.uk/investments/isas/hsbc-global-strategy-portfolios/
Analysts think the next move on Nov 2nd will be in the 3.75/4% region. The UK needs to catch up a bit you would think ?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgBCo1NWIAItN5A?format=jpg&name=900x900
Profit margins are holding up after recent falls..
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ff3Pq3hWYAM_9_d?format=png&name=900x900
Valuations are back to 2014 levels on the SP500 with forward P/E of 15.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffx4__gWYAA3A-b?format=png&name=900x900
All about inflation . If it's peaked then rates might not rise as fast. ? On the chart the FED are trying to get Red above Blue that's with rising rates and falling inflation. After that it'll be all about a possible recession ? Job figures are still healthy so the Fed won't stop until they're not. Analysts seem to think recession it's on the cards .
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYDN7BzVUAAsgbc?format=jpg&name=medium
That could be the case as its now a touch lower in the last four months. Something like 9.1% and down to 8.1 today. Those monthly bars in blue are much better than previous months.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe8yEvQXwAAamtx?format=jpg&name=900x900
Markets are extremely oversold short term and a bounce was due. Loads of indicators out there showing this.
Sentiment as bad as 2008 then a bounce.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe3GDx1WIAEALd8?format=png&name=900x900
Many stocks in decline again as bad as anytime
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe9chqPXkAAc56J?format=jpg&name=900x900
Hardly any stocks in the Dow above the 50 day moving average
https://www.indexindicators.com/charts/djia-vs-djia-stocks-above-50d-sma-params-5y-x-x-x/
Buy when there's fear ? . We shall see.
First stock markets don't go up forever and sometimes for a decade sideways. That usually means all stocks get caught up in this unless the product itself is a winner.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhCv7GqUwAACMF8?format=jpg&name=900x900
When inflation goes up the markets take a hit as interest rates follow to curb inflation
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDgNCrbXEAA4BFu?format=png&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYDN7BzVUAAsgbc?format=jpg&name=medium
After every crisis there's been shock inflation as the world reopens. Covid is the latest.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeOEQ5hWYAMfnLH?format=jpg&name=900x900
As interest rates rise P/E ratios tend to fall.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJEeOp4WQAocSbD?format=jpg&name=900x900
CW. Best part of debt is held by BOE, banks and pension funds.
https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/gilt-holdings-by-sector.png.webp
The BOE should have done more regardless of mini budget . Base rate should have been lifted by at least 0.75% but they bottled it. Media hysteria straight in to get somebody sacked . Nothing changes but they never say the pounds going up again. It's higher now than last week . Last nights news changed tack with no minute for minute charts of last weeks all time low in Pound. Emphasis was put on mortgages stating a 2 year fix is 4.85% up from 2%. US fix is way ahead. Double in a year so what's the difference ? Media won't tell you what's happening around the globe just UK is s**t.
What they didn't say in the mini budget is the personal tax allowance has been frozen since 2019-20. If it had been indexed all taxpayers would have had around £1500 extra allowance since or £300. Give it a few years and it will be double . No tax cuts then. Today we learn many benefits won't be increased as much as inflation. Smoke screen budget.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/30_year_mortgage_rate
In every crisis in 100's of years commodity prices have gone to the moon after reopening . Covid is the problem here and prices have gone daft again as well as the war. History suggests it takes few years to settle down so commodity prices are falling again. The dollar has gone to the moon as much is priced in dollars. With a bit luck its beginning to turn. Pound has gained because of this. Once intervention happens it sends a signal to the markets things are not stable. Stability is probably more important than inflation. Nike in the US have mentioned yesterday the dollar is hammering profits.
Commodity prices after war and spanish flu chart..
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRFXYN_VEAA-3ao?format=png&name=small
Dollar index
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd1QD2kaAAE1WfS?format=jpg&name=900x900
There's a few posters shorts covered the way this share is going !!!
Sold at 93p a while ago bought back in today 65p. Using TA and the tea leaves for entry points.
Just bang a 10 day moving average on and clear the rest. Lower indicators RSI, Slow Stochastic and Williams%R . Same set up as ever from me.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RR.L
As much as I understand they are buying in the open market to force the price of gilts and bonds down. This has a knock on effect with future mortgage rates and savings rates . If the government need more cash to cover the budget deficit then they will create new bonds and auction them. This usually happens monthly. Today the UK bond yields are falling which probably indicates the BOE in action buying up existing bonds. No idea if it does the trick.?
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-bond-yield
Those black shade areas show what the BOE already own. It's 25% under Asset purchase facility.
https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/gilt-holdings-by-sector.png.webp
3rd November then two days after all the doom and gloom investors can throw their shares on the bonfire.
uk..
https://monevator-monevator.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/base-rates-vs-inflation.jpg
other chart US Fed rates..
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbZz3BHXgAExTRp?format=jpg&name=900x900
This idea of raising rates to kill off inflation better work otherwise we are in for a big shock. Two charts US and UK . Look at 1960-70 rates were above inflation but didn't stop it until they were going to the moon in the late 1970's.
https://pbs.twimg.com/medhttps://monevator-monevator.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/base-rates-vs-inflation.jpgia/FbZz3BHXgAExTRp?format=jpg&name=900x900
Look at 18th July . Today the Dow filled the gap and reversed. So far so good. Who says TA doesn't play it's part ?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU