Could be all about taking out old highs which are 134p and 137p if you set the link to 1 year. This kind of thing happens when shares are on a roll it doesn't have to be about news . In favour out of favour kind of thing. Then of course its all about what happens when old highs are taken out. All a game really.
Sometimes a rally in the last hour of trading can signal a near bottom in the move. ? If you look at todays candlestick it's spikey just like November and March on the chart. Not saying I'm correct but it's there to be seen. RSI is near oversold and Stochastic is also. Todays low took us back to May and the 200 day moving average isn't a million miles away at 4100. Could easily go sideways from here and catch up ? Why should it crash anyway we've just had a slump last year. ? Earnings are forecast higher next year so nothing negative.
Hard to call next week as ever but investors , bloggers , commentators the lot are looking for a US correction. It doesn't have to be 10- 20% it can go sideways for months and meet up with the moving averages again.
Thing is there's hardly a year goes by without a return to the 200 day average and this year is one. A kind of 1 in 10 event. The 50 day average as mentioned in the above posts has been hit a few times this year and is bang on today. What happens next nobody knows but I can see other indicators such as Stochastics on the bottom so at buying territory. ?
RR is in buying territory as of last Wednesday at 105p when you load up the Stochastics on here from the indicators.. All tea leaves but plenty investors use them.
Not for everyone technical indicators but I use them all the time for a guide. In the link just load in the Stochastic which can give reasonable entry and exit points. Mid July the indicator was low at 90p then rallied. It held above the blue shaded area for weeks and finally broke down late August around 115-120p. Yesterday we sat at the bottom on 105p and 109p so far this session.
Posters saying market is manipulated by this and than when all shares do is ride in waves.
Looking at the Aerospace sector and RR there doesn't seem much in it over the last few months. A massive rally and a bit of profit taking so far. Can't expect anything else really. Just got to keep yours eyes on the US markets as ever.
Under Economic Data in the link below there's two updates for end of August. In the Air Passenger Analysis data there's a clear rebound from the lows which continued in July. See chart 1.
First off you can't just cash in a pension pot overnight as it will be regarded as taxable income in that tax year. So if you add your salary to the £125 K then you'll be paying the highest rate of tax on the lot. So have a rethink about this.
Are there other funds available in your pension fund selection. There should be if it's any good. I would imagine there'll be a default fund representing say 60% equity and 40% bonds. That's where most investors sit in millions of pension funds. Only the adventurous investors have more equities in their selection. The bond element is there to give it stability and ease volatility in downturns.
In the link you should see the performance of some middle of the road funds which are balanced.
The AFI Balanced is an indicator of the average fund. 41% after 5 years and 112% in 10 years. Your 55% in 11 years should have been more. Do some research and don't be too hasty.
There you go activity all over.
You can believe what you want. Rampers and Derampers who knows and who cares as it's a case of DYOR. Why have you bought into a share ? What are it's growth prospects etc.?
In the case of RR I suspect many will be here because of the recovery play and potential. What if you'd bought higher up at £6, 8, 10 and £12 ? It's a disaster for any long term holder.
There may be long term holders now but they've probably bought in and around £1. That's a big difference.
Activity on here is basically due to the above mentioned . Might get to £2 soon etc. ? Can't blame them it might happen. If you look on other FTSE chat boards there's hardly anyone on many shares that have literally gone to the moon in exactly the way posters want RR share to do.
Maybe it's all to do with the name RR which is well known.? Anyway good luck to those who are in long term.
Here's a few examples . Set the chart to Max.
Much better to look at brokers forecasts and not brokers views on price. Probably from the same people but you need to see future sales and earnings etc to get a better picture. Normally brokers give estimates for the next two years. If things are going in the right direction then this should at least give the share some stability. In the case of RR sales and earnings are progressing from a much lower base than 5 years ago but its an improvement. Earnings for 2023 are estimated at 8p per share giving a P/E ratio of around 14 at 110p. It's not demanding so should put a floor under current price. Only a US correction could derail this now I would have thought.
Worked for RR for a few decades. Outsourcing production of parts has been ongoing for many years. That's the trouble workers will be made redundant and the way around this has usually been through enhanced redundancy payments and early retirement. There's always people 55yo and over who would like to leave. Kind of takes the pressure off the rest of the workforce.
Production of parts can be classed in two groups , Critical and Non Critical. Although a license will be needed to make such parts some of the non critical parts were sub contracted many years ago. Maybe today its possible to produce critical parts under license through a contractor ? I don't know. ?
As much as I understand the critical stuff was the fan discs and the blades. You can see a few diagrams in the link.
Thing is nobody is right or wrong. Indices and shares all move in waves short and long term. There doesn't even need to be any news about the company either.
Lets look at the last few months in the link below. Set to default moving average. The add in RSI and Slow Stochastic. Stochastics especially tend to capture possible exit and entry points.
Early May at 108p Stochastics were high. Then low at 100p weeks later. High again in June at 110p and lower in July at 95p and 90p. Today the Stochastic is high and you could say overbought for now at 110p. ? Nobody knows but that's the way it kind of goes. There's no straight lines. Never.
Best to look at the Dow in general for direction in the markets. That's normally the way it goes.
Since the GFC in 2008 the link between rates and inflation was broken. They've never been up since. The pandemic has made it worse as the magic money helps things along.
Even when inflation rose in 2010 and in 2021 still nothing was done. No idea but if I was to bet on things I doubt we'll see 3% base rates even 2% in decades.
Can't take your eye off the Dow really. That's what I've learnt. No idea but yesterdays move could have been about covering the pre markets and the gap from Monday ? Today futures are higher but again that doesn't mean we can't reverse and continue lower. Looking at the lower indicators in the daily timeframe , Stoch and RSI , they are neither low or high. Plenty time to complete the move to oversold. Who knows ?
Breadth not exactly bombed out yesterday.
Looked at this .
Regarding the valuations in UK and US markets , the difference has been there years. Forward UK P/E around 13 and US near 20. Will it adjust ? No idea.? After the dot.com boom most of the FTSE big guns traded on P/E's never seen before. Banks , Oils , Telecoms, Supermarkets, Utilities all traded around P/E 10 or less in previous years . The dot.com boom boosted them to PE 20-30 . Vodaphone once represented 15% of the FTSE. Since then there's been a kind of transition as these slow growing FTSE stocks have adjusted to so called " normal "
You can see this on the following chart. Looks poor in recent years but adjust the timescale 20 years or more.
Many ignore charts and indicators but they can give clues that's why I use them.
RR in the daily time is oversold looking at RSI MACD and Slow Stochastic so you could say a bounce ? There could be good news for RR in the Aug update ? Although I'm repeating myself on here I think the main danger is the US markets which haven't had a meaningful correction in months.
In the daily you can see lower indicators are curling over but nowhere near oversold.
The weekly has just started to curl over but it's a longer term picture. Run in US has resulted in the highest difference between price at 4258 and the 200 average at 3098 since year 1999. These things tend to come back at some point.
Posted this many times in recent months you must watch the US markets for general direction. After all the market cap of the US is 60% of world ? That's the basic guidelines to stock picking it's not always about your stock.
Since 4.30pm close on Friday the US markets, including futures, have dropped 600 points. As a result the rest of the world has followed. A kind of catch up thing if you like ?
Set the chart to 1week.
Not often on here but I tend to agree with Mojo's thoughts. No expert but I look at some TA and also the movements of the Dow . From the technical chart below just set some simple indicators. Default moving average, RSI and Slow Stochastic. Late June you should see indicators on overbought region, yes it doesn't have to play out , and price of BP near 340. Since the we've drifted lower and all indicators are now oversold. You could say buying territory but nothing is guaranteed.
Regarding the US markets the distance between price and the 200 moving average is at its highest since 1999. The daily chart shows price of SP 500 at 4327 and 200 average at 3890.
The weekly is the same and the monthly. It's something to consider for the general movements of shares.
A nice little link to read data on air traffic. There's three releases under Economic Data from July the 7th. Although the passenger data is at 62% of 2019 levels it is slowly increasing. I'd imagine this is in line with the RR reports out soon.
Well if there's only 1 or 2 get it bad then 1 lives close to me. 67 yo both jabs and he's now in a tent in hospital. Just an hour ago the young lad next door has told me he's now got it. If it wasn't for the vaccine I would be very concerned. I wasn't last year but this appears different. It's opening up so we'll soon see how it develops. Stay safe everyone.