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Nobody knows what will happen exactly . Markets have already turned down this year . Is that enough who knows ? Will company earnings hold up ? Again who knows . General opinion is the FED will hold rates peaking next year in the hope inflation and wage inflation are under control. Can't see some of those FED pivots downturns playing out really as we've already fallen a fair bit this year . We can only wait and see. If RR post some good earnings then you'd imagine a further recovery in the share price. Thing is part of the share price is market sentiment so things can be confusing. LTH well that's for years so you just ride the waves until we recover.
There's way more than GS and JPM predicting a recession. Seems to be a case of how long and how deep ? Might be pretty flat . ? Just got to wait and see next year. Many of the indicators out there are showing a slowdown. Purchasing managers index PMI for example.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FiuYnF_XkAAtEVK?format=png&name=small
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fiv0NqOWYAAoru-?format=png&name=small
History suggests a reaction when the FED pivots and lowers rates. Markets could well fall ? Not been negative but I take all this on board . Just not kidding myself.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Fed-Funds-and-Bear-Markets.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fg-pqTnVsAE18Ar?format=jpg&name=900x900
Again the world markets are influenced by the US economic outlook . Today they estimated 200K new job gains in the month but the figure came in at 260K . Good news is bad as they want interest rates lower but good employment figures mean it could be delayed ? All for the sake of 60K jobs markets turn down up to 1.5% . That's the kind of farce it all is .
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
Set to 1 day and you'll see the slump at 1.30pm and a recovery since. RR no different.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
I use TA when buying and selling short term eg. weeks or months. That's my choice but it's not for everyone. I've been through the agonies of buy and hold years ago and it's evident on here and others that people are struggling emotionally with the volatility of shares. It's a difficult game.
Now then I don't use all the tools in TA as there's just too many. I have a basic set up with lower indicators and moving averages. It's an attempt to ride the waves and not get upset when it's not working.
Cup and handle I never look at really tbh.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandle.asp
My set up as follows and hopefully it's helpful. From the first link reset the moving averages to a 10 day. Leave the RSI above the chart and below set up Slow stochastic and Williams%R in the lower indicators. In the recent move from 65p to 92p the price held strong above the moving average. Those lower indicators are the traffic light signals showing overbought and oversold. The combination of the average and indicators are my trigger points. Basically at the moment I'm out and waiting until the lower indicators are oversold gain and appear to be curling up. Walking stick handles in my case. I'm gaining the bit in the middle in theory. In recent months I've gained over 25% more shares using the system. Not trying to be clever here mind .
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RR.L
This link when set with the same 1 0day average , indicators and candlesticks is pretty clear to understand. Those coloured regions , red and green on the lower indicators are the triggers . Note they can stay overbought and oversold so its just a case of waiting until they curl out of the colours.
https://markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/data/equities/tearsheet/charts?s=RR.:LSE
Here's the SP500 and the Stochastic is on the top and appears to be curling down ? Possibly moving down or not ? You decide ?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27848000232&a=226295345&listNum=1
It would help if these charts were posted so if there's something in it we could all see. ? Why not use something like " imgur " website to post images from a link ?
1hr ,4 hr ,daily and weekly intervals can be seen on the link below with candles green and red. let's start with the 1 yr interval . Clearly it shows the fall to the recent lows of 65p to 92p high. 6 green weekly candles and now 1 red. So you could say resistance above 92p region looking back to April ? Now set at 3M and 1day and recently all red. Set to 1m and now 4hr and it's all red in general. Now then are you suggesting that 83p a few days ago is a bottom ? How can you predict that ? Move on and set to 1 wk and 1hr showing. Again are you saying that green candle at 83p is now support as the price hasn't gone lower ? Anything can happen in such a short space of time. Need more evidence of an uptrend really. Even then it could all turn the other way in days. ?
https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/instruments/rolls-royce
When it's going down it's always market manipulation ? What about when it's going up ? Who's to blame then ? Markets and shares move in waves . Take your pick which timeframe you use. Daily, weekly, monthly etc. RR has had a great run up from 65p and partly lifted by the general market rise in recent weeks. That's the way it goes. Sometimes lifted by the company itself and the rest by market direction. It's hardly given much of the 65p -92p move back when you look at the chart . Up 40% and down 10% not bad. Mind if you use TA then the indicators are overbought . Just add in Slow Stochastic and Williams%R with the RSI showing. These things tend to play out in my 20 years using them.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RR.L
Nothing between RR and the airline index really both giving up gains.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XAL
I've posted three links on the ..Why !..thread from Friday 18th NOV. This link is one of the best out there for free information. Dividends are forecast to return in 2023 and 2024 . Look at the blue shaded areas.
Just to get some idea what's happening early last year all those forecasts again in the blue shaded areas were estimating much improved results a lot earlier . Earnings ( EPS ) were forecast 9p but now have been cut to 7p and pushed back another year. Basically why the price has dropped from 150p to 85p. World events have simply slowed recovery.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/financials/
Another good link. Read the Economic Data. Air passenger and Air freight monthly analysis.
https://www.iata.org/
Onthecoast
Thanks for the link. Depressing reading if their projections are right .
From the same link there's a few tabs to look at. Worth bookmarking .
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/financials/
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/consensus/
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/revisions/
A few other brokers have a basic view if you hit on the FINANCIALS tab. Not much different really ? There is a dividend for 2023 of 1p showing in all three links so it's a start. The way I see the main link I've posted has earnings per share EPS at 7p in 2024 so basically a P/E ratio of 12 at 85p . Realistic I would say ? Why would RR trade a lot higher ? 150p would be a P/E of 20. Not many shares trade on P/E 20 unless there is a growth story ? The FTSE is currently trading at 13.
https://www.investments.lloydsbank.com/share-centre/details/?csid=10072
https://www.markets.iweb-sharedealing.co.uk/share-centre/details/?csid=10072
I agree baronbog RR needs a huge flow of orders just to stand still . Pre covid the Sales per year were £15bn . Look at the link below. When I worked there the Trent order book kept flowing but didn't always move the share price . There's another thread on here about links to China .Over 20 years ago RR went into a risk reward partnership with China . I think they put up some R&D cash for a share of the production ? Anyway recovery will come I'm sure just got to hang in for a few years.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/financials/
Well done if it's worked in your favour but some RI's are only for a few additional shares at a discount. Remember loads of people wouldn't have the extra cash to save themselves . What was your original purchase price that's what I'm saying ? I firmly believe most posters on here bought in the last two years . Good luck to everyone.
I honestly can't see how anybody has made money in RR out of long term holding ? Look at the chart and imagine buying in the last 20 years ? Some will have bought at £10 and more ? Let's be honest investors have seen this stock as a recovery play and took a punt in the last couple of years . Worked for RR 30 years so I know something.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EiazTPiXgAIr5Oc?format=png&name=900x900
I'm not a day trader but a short term trader . I've learnt not to get attached to anything as it goes wrong at times . Using the daily time frame , 5 and 10 day moving average as a guide and Slow Stochastic. RSI and Williams%R .
RR looks no different to the US airlines index. ?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAL
Correct you don't need to go on a course it's just throwing money away. Stuff is out there for free. This is a bit like my set up but my Stochastic is a little slower but the idea is there . Overbought on the indicators and broke through the moving average . I'm waiting until it's oversold with the indicators on the bottom. Not perfect but it saves me getting caught out . Let's face it it's not the best share in the world the way some posters go on about it.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=UK%3ARR&x=57&y=15&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=9&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=256&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
Phyl....Do you two ever disagree?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAbXnPyXkAUnheU?format=jpg&name=360x360
and put wings on them.
Here's the 1 hr chart . Set to 1 week to get 1 hr interval. RR has lost 7 days of gains . Explain how the 1 hr chart is strong ?
https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/instruments/rolls-royce
Well the last two in charge were booted out after weeks so with that in mind it'll be what the markets want ? Tax rises and spending cuts. There'll be forecasts but that doesn't mean they will play out in the next few years. Here's the US inflation forecasts ... wrong.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgEOGapXoAA0z35?format=png&name=small
The BOE inflation forecasts...wrong.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYFx9CAWYAA2sLw?format=jpg&name=900x900
The last time there was so called austerity in 2010 GO said let's pay back debt quicker and balance the books by 2015 . Well that year the budget deficit was £70bn. WRONG.
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/14/osbornes-legacy-what-the-austerity-chancellor-leaves-behind.html
Here's that famous 1 Hour chart . How can you tell if it's rising or falling ? 10 days it's now as low as previous 7 days. So only up first 3 out of 10 days ?
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=UK%3ARR&x=57&y=19&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=4%2F13%2F2019&freq=8&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=64&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15
As indicators go it is overbought . Load up RSI , Slow stochastic and Williams%R . Had the best run in a long time.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RR.L
Boom...Inflation down to 7.7%
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
Markets up and always looking ahead. Inflation down so rate rises might slow ?
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market