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Nitro I think those are Jeff's trades .. deep down he is a massive bull .

Only kidding Jeff , allow me some light hearted banter.

Kokomo ,

I was going to post the same. A while back when approaching 85 I felt that 300p was certainly in reach . today at nearly $94 ..... We'll get there as ultimately any hint of a decreasing EPL will come when they see HBR production in the UK as part of the total decreasing . Can't wait for our non UK projects to really kick in The asset revaluations should be material even as I type

Oil goes higher and higher as well as gas and the underlying oil and gas share falls continously even with the shares been bought and cancelled. Nothing but a magic trick going on here . over 91$ ! its insane !

Most likely because of the EPL that won't happen as its reserves-based lending facility has been reduced to $1.1bn from $2.7bn previously . So they just can't borrow to do that . For disclosure I hold both as part of a portfolio of shares in the sector globally

From the IC on the 24th of August

"Tax for the period was $437mn, compared with $506mn pre-EPL last year on a far-higher profit."

THe EPL is directly responsible for lower tax intake , you couldn't make it up really

Yet HBR.... . .I mean nothing wrong with Gas and OIl prices nor the divi or the lack of debt , nor the ongoing diversificaiton out of the UK tax grab , yet ...

So I look at Average price this year of Brent in USD , Brent in GBP , Enquest and Brent /Enquest and Brent in GBP by Enquest

The conclusion I leave to you but it shows a highly inconsistent valuation discrepancy

FIrst the data :

Q1 Brent: 82.077$ Enquest 20.1p GBP/USD 1.2155. (Brent/GBPUSD)/ Enquest = 3.354

Q2 Brent: 77.732$ Enquest 16.39 GBP/USD 1.2524. (Brent/GBPUSD)/ Enquest = 3.785

Q3 Brent: 83.512$ Enquest 16.59 GBP/USD 1.2576. (Brent/GBPUSD)/ Enquest = 3.944

3.944 Enquest shares now for every barrel of Brent in Sterling . Up from 3.3 . Not making too much sense to me

I do appreciate that FCF is impacting by both Capex and OPex so will overlay those to the above but the ratios are telling me that vs Brent in GBP Enquest is way over sold

I noticed how we are very much at year highs for Brent in GBP , similar levels achieved in Q1 which then followed a much lower Q2 . Having just taken a beating with the H1 results despite the strong FCF I just wanted to point out that in Q1 with a similar so far level for Brent in sterling the quarter had share price of between 19.5ish and nearly 24p . Q2 dropped as Brent dropped. Q3 is now averaging ( early days I know ) better than Q1 .

If this lasts (strong oil ) then current share price is a total aberration as we can see what Q1 gave and I feel we'll beat that. We are currently paying the price of a Q2 which was as it seems the culprit for this share price decline. rightly or wrongly .

I'll get the Q1 Brent in GBP Average and Q2 and Q3 later so to show the point am making

YES EPL needs to be lowered and production moved abroad.

One of the funniest (and stupid ) things I read today was the offshore windfarm story which has seen no contracts and was a total flop

UK energy is in trouble if it doesn't reduce the EPL as it will become more and more dependent on countries which most likely laugh at our own goal so why stifle our oil and gas industry ? dumb and dumber Tory and Labour

https://www.ft.com/content/c5a2986a-6edf-46d1-bcbc-584fb9426802

At least for me how crazy to have nearly 89$ cash Brent contract and Enq at 14.7ish as I type, just over 70p in GBP terms which in the not so distant past would have given a much higher valuation .

Imagine the swearing if in a pub with me and Kraken today lol lol lol .

JAdams I agree with Baron's point FCF is still strong and debt has fallen enormously

I also read the usual attacks on the hedges by some other posters . Let me explain that they are forced into hedging a part of production just like any firm would given our debt facilities. Its standard.

As for the crazy fall today , I do wonder indeed if it has been augmented due to swedish exchange sellers.

Enquest should speed up its move to more stable financial jurisdictions , and given that opportunity I firmly believe that oil legislation is creating or going to create a huge bubble . Much to the embarrassment of the current and incumbent government . C'est la vie.

Very weird over reaction must say. Just as oil was almost nearing $90 ( cash contract)

FCF does not imply this valuation neither oil prices going forward with or without the EPL . The delisting in Sweden is probably done to save money too as they may have judged it as unnecessary vs the benefits. Not really a 14% down RNS !

Everyday something bizarre happens

Ahah no sympathy indeed , mind you I go short too on other assets but would avoid a 9% yield . Seems a bit of a hefty payment to make . Risk parameters for a hedge fund would need to be relaxed to allow for that .

Did realise 85m were closed the other day .

Did my calcs on the weekend and I'd expect another draw this week in US inventories , though because of US bank hols the reports will come out Weds and Thurs instead of Tue and Weds

Bulls did to test and break 270p that is the key to rising higher

To our current 3% shorter

"Shareholders of dividend-paying companies as of the record date are entitled to collect declared dividends.

If, however, you are short a dividend-paying stock, you are not entitled to receive the dividend and must pay it instead to the lender of the borrowed shares."

Thank you and looking forward to it :-))

That and a stab at breaking out of 270 resistance will cheer me up

I sometimes what to follow a shorter term strategy but there are some obstacles and conflict of interest with the day job

Was it a good trade ? Well done .

Is short term trading your edge ? Just curious

I wrote this a while back see below post copied here : I can argue now that the bear case of lower lows has not materialised and in that thread I mention the bullish side and a volume spike down that looked like the sellers had exhausted their play . We shall if true .

What is true is that 270 breakout is going to be Bullish . As anyone can see that current side ways channel that has developed or use a LineraReg of 100days and you get 0.0278 ie in simple terms we are in a sideways channel but with picking up momentum which given we are only about 12p away from breakout could be good news , *COULD* ie not certain.

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RE: Today's candle25 Aug 2023 12:45

Hi Dark ,

Just a scenario for the Bulls that was

For the Bears instead ( winners this year for sure )

They need to keep getting the lower lows . From about the 11th of August the Bears have managed to reverse price action but not quite set a new low . On the way to the 200ma we ( bulls) lost steam . So really need that steam to come back . The more attempts to hit the 200ma the more likely that will eventually break us out , Likewise should we head south and re-test the 215 level that too risks being broken and breaking the BUlls hearts lol and wallet.

HBR tends to have periods where it follows Brent/GBPUSD and that is up today and maybe showing some positive momentum . We shall see .

What stands out is the big volume yesterday and I hope to see the opposite coming on a positive day as that will make me pile in as that would be the Big exhaustion volume needed. But if its not . mmmm then back to being miserable"

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As posted previously . I wasn't wrong

The bit that always surprises is how a negative spin instead always has the upper hand vs an oil market fundamental piece of information . Am not surprised price is suppressed as retail acts all doom and gloom but fcf here is key , its key to pay our divis just for one . Am technically bullish again . The distance between my average and price is reducing as are shares in circulation . Add the upcoming divi too and patience will have proven to be a virtue

All those bears and yet30 Aug 2023 15:35

Big inventory drop . over 10m in Crude barrels were drawn . Now I can't see how the spin will turn this into a negative too.

Let those with such skills loose:-)

Big inventory drop . over 10m in Crude barrels were drawn . Now I can't see how the spin will turn this into a negative too.

Let those with such skills loose:-)

Would be funny if Harbour and peers start to find better business environments out of the UK tax jurisdiction and production moves out leaving a minority of production over here. Then the UK has to import more and import from the same companies it over taxed in the first place. That would make me laugh and go insane at the same time as after all am a UK tax payer too. But the model isn't so funny if it had not already been applied to other parts of our industry . Sadly this has happened already so oil will just follow that self inflicted path of self harm by the politicians.

You can see why people trade cycles as they repeat themselves

I suspect a major spike will come too when governments realise that capital intensive projects cannot be switched on at any moment . Only Saudi can really do that. Western governments self harming will be the catalyst for civil disorder once again . Oil is only going up in price , because of excessive taxation not the other way round

Brent Rallying . No negative candle whatsover am afraid . With UK gas up 9% too.

Low volume kept this down after people got scared by the algo yesterday . Today should have been very up instead of just a little. Let Tuesday rally