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after UK close. I notice this happens often yet some sold prior to close , seems weird as tomorrow they will go higher.
Am pretty bullish that we'll get a draw tonight from API and tomorrow EIA , fingers crossed i did my sums right
with WTI recovered from going below $81 ! That to me is a good sign
The other thing to remember is that Harbour has assets abroad too . Lets not also under estimate Shell , Equinor and probably BP joint threat of investment reduction , regardless of what they say it would be a big blow and gaffe by the government . Each £1 spent on investments tends to generate £4 down the line is typically estimated . So this is a major blow that far out paces the tax they thought they would collect and does nothing to instead lower Brent prices , if they were smart they would support these investment to add much needed supply .
Yeah it will be a major blow .
I am biased as a libertarian but find it super strange that they have Oxford degrees yet never came across studies of the impact of a certain level of taxation and investments. I mean we have the IFS (Institute for Fiscal Studies) surely they can show empirical evidence .
The thing I hate the most is that out politicians are not really that qualified despite some business success for Hunt with the company they sold and Sunak with some of his financial background.
Truss and the previous chancellor's budget was sabotaged by the Bank of England useless pension fund issues and had it not been for the 400/500 squandered on Covid the budget would have boosted the UK big time
present a united front and cancelling investments as Shell is suggesting ( add BP , Harbour, Enquest, Serica ) from a UK perspective but foreign inward investment too , then all added up negates any tax big time as well as reduces taxable income . Blatant disaster
I think that when it gets a bit quieter the windfall tax will be review downwards . The government stands to look very silly here
Hi Rookie its a big statement worth £25bn ! Frankly speaking the tax will not be raising anything near what they wished for whilst have damaged , market caps , capital gains (also taxed more) , jobs , future investments and UK having no energy industry so having to import from further away adding to environmental issues and having no say over the countries from which we will import and their eco standards . Its lose lose and lose more all over . Even those eco glue warriors will understand that the further you import from the more CO2 you emit . Rocket science for too many that is the worrying thing . Too many want strawberries in winter and are probably eco warriors , yet no excess tax on Tesco for selling them . Oh boy I could rant all day lol
Would make the near 8% down look a bit silly indeed . 8% on a variable that at best is affecting HBR by a fourth roughly speaking ! Shocking sentiment at the moment not based on anything else
not sure if true or not but Brent went from close to -6% on the day to 2.75% as I type , just shows that those selling today were selling on the vagaries of not even 1 day of Brent price action . Weak hands flushed. Makes me happy . Harbour says thanks as we can buy those shares back on the very cheap and hence improve the EPS nicely
The bit that really confuses me is the prospect of another inventory draw this Wednesday and no signs of a very expensive gas ( at least 3 or 4 times where it should be on average ) decrease. Colder air to also push into Europe early Dec . Certainly a lot colder in the UK
It baffles me we out paced Brent and all sentiment so down .
The reality is that Harbour down 6% with Brent down 5% is mathematically wrong
So for simplistic terms we are roughly hedged 50-50 on Brent and 50-50 on Gas .
SO each weight is approx 25% . Then why if Brent has a daily decrease of 5% do we decrease 6% when its real impact in much lower ?
Also the WT in this equation is irrelevant as its not a fixed tax but a percentage. If today we make a bit less money so will the taxable amount be lower .
Anyways who cares people do whatever they want so sell and move on
Remember that the 100m buybacks are improving the EPS ratio . The hedges in oil and great gas prices at the moment the other positive factor . I find it strange that when Brent rallies 5% the share doesn't budge much , the opposite it falls. Cant be both right as we know a lot of production is hedged anyways . So irrelevant daily swings yet as always we get impacted regardless
With Brent now in the 80s can it really be called excess profits ? I mean this is not the case for oil . Gas I understand . But not oil . As always we score own goals business wise . I never understood a government that penalises its own firms to the benefit of foreign ones but it seems to be the business model in the UK whether its Tory Labour or Labour. The two parties opposed to the regular citizen especially the tax payer . Imagine if this lot are bad the ones waiting to displace them will be even worse. Very depressing to be honest . Isn't Tesco showing excess profits ?
Great posts gentlemen . Exactly what I was estimating myself after trawling through the various available docs.
Londoner7 , Banburyboy , L3Trader , etc thanks for the posts .
Factor in that buybacks enhance EPS and make those earnings look good even with that horrible attempt at sabotaging HBR. The other bit I like is that investments will at least for me all be focused away from the NS
No matter how I look at it a tax regime worthy of a banana republic is not worth the effort of planning and partly in planning hedges becomes more complex , its hard enough for me and my portfolio in various currencies.
I equally sense that overall the two opposition parties' estimates of tax revenue over the next 5 years will be missed by quite a margin .
Wouldn't mind if they also started a share buy back process much like Harbour . Our EPS will be looking even better
Also don't forget that for Enquest we still don't get any windfall tax on our Malaysian production . The overall impact is hugely unfair but not as high as the shareprice or some on the bb believe.
Operations update out soon and remember our CEO owns more shares than any of us
Well it looks like the usual drama but when you take a look in detail the firm is profitable and adding value daily . At these prices if you are not going to like them then you never will . But to me they are trading at or below EPS , with still good margins despite the whole tax situation
Only bit that hurts me is when I hear Lib Lab and SNP chaps saying this all fair as BP and SHell make billions ! Yet they seem to be oblivious to the fact that our UK firms are the ones seeing investors penalised . They have so much venom in their words and hatred yet are misguided immensely .
Like having a headache and using a hammer to fix it . Seems quite stupid to me.
Anyways I am very bullish oil and won't fall for the drama