Member Info for onedb

All good points Kraken

Seems very interesting that we get the news at 14.30 and this morning on thin volume we had 1p spread with bid at 15.20s then moved up slowly during day . Typical attempt to get some cheap shares ? The bid moved up a lot on the close , in percentage terms when more that the 3,4% up close today . A note of caution for those who put stops and keep them on open . I tend to have mine back on after an hour or so . But then that is just me

I like the contrarion managed money who was all short on oil . Seems to work well as an indicator for a major rally . though we do have seasonality to contend with < I remain super bullish .

Tax reduction or not Harbour has to move its investments and production mix away from the UK . Its clear that you cannot plan ahead here based on the government of the day and its misguided use of taxation . I mean Copper spiked too in March 2023 did we tax those firms more ? They can't as production is abroad . So am happy when I hear of all our projects abroad as whoever is in power cannot tax those and stick 2 fingers to the ignorant populism we have plenty of in this country . We won't win otherwise . They also can't nationalise assets from abroad, so in my mind pedal to the metal in Mexico etc as that is where we are safer

Again ouch ! This keeps falling . It may impact supply later on but impact it will . Again why would I invest in a pricey field without a good outlook and steady pricing ? No matter what product . Would one plant banana trees to sell more of them if price was coming down and taxes increasing ? No So what happens when people want more bananas ? Price will have to rise . And for a more complicated business like oil the drills take time , skilled labour and deeper drills and the shallow easy stuff is depleting fast. So the tap cannot be turned back on quickly . Capital too is needed that banks won't lend easily anymore . Skilled labour may also be deciding to work in another industry . At some point we'll have a supply shock all caused by taxation as it didn't allow firms to rebuild the balance sheets as needed . Crack pot populism at its best is what we have today. Polls more important than policy is the formula for failure

Total Rigs -17

Oil -2

Gas -16

Misc +1

Permian -3

Haynesville -5

Hi Stumpy,

You know what is funny about today's generation ? They hate the 1% but act like it .

Let me explain. They want a greener world yet are the highest consumers of any generation . As a kid I didn't change my phone every other year or my clothes were patched not thrown away . First of all we had 1 phone in the whole house.

They do the same to the country . UK's emissions are more like 1% of global emissions and we are selling out all those industries that create good jobs so that Chinese and Indian workers can do them .

Then the housing story ! Another farce , young people want migration yet complain renting say in Oxford or London is very high , housing is too expensive and we can't build on green belt as anti green. So we need to build affordable homes but at the same time the wages for those who build these homes have to be good right so nothing will get built . Its like a generation that is highly confused . Hates oil but F1 is at its most popular, as are Nikes or Adidas or other similar brands. This generation has learning opportunities like no other so should know that trainers are made possible via petrochemical products like ethylene-vinyl- acetate and oil and gas derivative. Not some EV trainer made will ever exist am afraid.

The list goes on of products that will always need oil even this nonsense of hydrogen fuel ! Please all do some serious research as that too will need fossil fuels . But I fear kids don't get it . China and India care very little about western spoilt kids sensitivities and their youth is far more prepared for a hard life than ours , pampered and spoilt .

All stinks of hypocrisy to me this is not to say I don't want more efficient energy usage , less pollution in rivers and wildlife and am obsessed with doing my very best since the 80s ! But we also have to remember that there is balance in every thing in life and at the moment we are paying a HUGE price for something that alone we can't really change and that to me will simply not work .

Punish not criminalise lol

Mine was just venting don't worry. But I do believe that UK customers hence voters of all parties if happy to see high taxation for the North Sea independents should also realise that high taxation discourages investments, discourages a long list of things. I still remember when Hollande in France was elected and he raised taxes significantly . The wealthy middle class Parisians all moved to London

High oil taxation has already reduced employment , cut investments and seen firms deploy resources to projects elsewhere . That is a quick and tangible reality . That is impactful . Once Harbour is operationally more skewed to foreign jurisdictions they won't tax anything as not much will be left in the UK . Then what ? Will they tax Mexico ? haha

This all means that once Linda Cook deploys investments they won't be in the UK . Much to the anger of whoever will be in power . She knows how we the shareholders feel about this as she probably feels as angry as we do .

I am prepared to bet a big amount of money that the government expected EPL receipts are vastly over stated and will come in much lower. Much to the dismay of the proponents of these taxes. Then what will they do ?

They need to focus on the waste and what is not working and how to promote not discourage growth and investments . Its almost like they read their economics and finance books in reverse .

Sorry "lead to supply shortages " Not "lead in supply " Of course . Was typing away on the phone . Back to PC now

Been noticing how the drill counts in the US are falling fast. Pretty clear to me that it implies a lack of support at these prices to invest in new ones. It will eventually lead in supply shortages no doubts

On top of which you get those who'd like more taxes etc on it .

Similar situation in the North Sea where not only new fields are not being invested in but our very own Harbour and others like Enquest are moving operations abroad. If this is not western stupidity at its best I don't know what is. For every problem the only solution they have is to tax . When even a child can chart Brent in sterling and see that at present there is nothing exceptional in the price of oil . 1 month was exceptional and caused epileptic fits for some, but the truth is that adjusted for inflation March was not even close to the all time highs

At this rate North sea will cease to produce and firms move abroad. A move I support big time as believe that stupidity should be punished . Only thing people will understand is once they suffer

Defamation and malice . Totally done to disinform the uneducated. Worst of all it’s uneducated that will get penalised the most. When you look at oil in pound terms there is nothing exceptional . Politicians would scape goat their mothers for all their failures if they could . Horrible people .

I totally agree with you Romaron . Read a snippet on the Standard this afternoon and it was obvious it was full of misleading information and malice . I find it funny that free or non existent in paper format papers like the Standard and Guardian are not considered by the general public as nothing but parody . Yet our school kids are now brainwashed, with the drivel they publish as our young professionals etc . It baffles me . I think they need to be taught a strong lesson that many will hardly be able to stomach anyway . The sad thing is that these morons will impact not just themselves but good smart people too .

Remember a large portion of production is also hedged and values of 72 are within that range

“.
Hedges in place for c.7.9 MMbbls of oil, predominantly through the combination of puts and costless collars. The average floor price is $58/bbl and the ceiling associated with the 3.3 MMbbls of costless collars is $75/bbl“

Barclays upgraded Enq to 36 from 29p , I mean what the hell is going up ? Because that is one serious divergence . The current SP can't be right but the usual hysteria

I think we all agree yet price has come down since which is very counter intuitive at least to silly me

My view only .

We see that the bond market is pricing almost 200 bps worth of Fed cuts over the next 18 months.

This is by far the biggest amount of cumulative Fed cuts the bond market ever priced in over the last 37 years.

Now why is this important , well to me when the yield on government bond falls, i.e., bond prices rise, retaining oil reserves becomes more attractive to the oil producing countries, which then have less incentive to accommodate demand rises, and so the oil price rises.

We have seen the SPR depleted in the US and yet demand for products keep on depleting inventories We are also seeing India's and China's demand for oil increase substantially inline with Goldman's predictions . This is bullish , they don't have stop oil activists there and they need lots of oil etc to keep up their economical growth , only renewables are not sufficient nor reliable nor can you manufacture plastics using thin air.

I have a target WTI of $93 this year after this blip in April . I was also bullish April as usually HBR does well this month l SO hopefully there is a delayed rally .

My two cents. I hold 245 CFDs for trading purposes and holding physical in around the 355 mark now on average So am down for now . Honestly gutted so far

I bought at 245 the other thinking it was smart buy especially given the stochastic levels reached . Clearly I got that 10 p wrong so far . What I don't get is that post my buy we had the oil discovery which looks substantial and surely is value accretive , I mean oil is not free and out of the UK tax grab, whether Labour or Tory. Yet no value to that discovery has been assigned and no value was priced in already in any report whatsoever . One consolation is that my divis are automatically re-invested and the lower the price the better as overall my average will decrease. (yet only by a small bit)

Other crazy thing is that oil inventory draws were huge so something here is not making sense in my view

But when does it make sense ? Last 2 years have been terrible

Should also in theory take a lot less time to eventually start production .

I feel that shareholders have underestimated projects in the portfolio of HBR especially those not in the North Sea . The value of this news is certainly not a flat day . There is a lot of value in this project and will be keen to get data on NPVs ( projected)

The best bit is that we are going to clearly diversify away from the greedy taxman in the UK and eventually stick 2 fingers to them . My 245 buy got lucky this time ( as posted a few days ago )

For reference . I do like the odd trade

Stochastic looks like turning , RSi oversold and turning , MACD same etc and Brent oil in general I closed my short last night .
My main holding was averaged at 360 , this lot at 245 is for trading purposes only unless we see a proper trend establish itself

Sorry wrong bb