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Agree with that Stumpy

Lets see Stumpy . Michigan consumer survey today was off the scales. somehow contradicting your thoughts on the US economy 77.2 ! That is off the charts . I was very surprised . I think soft landing is something I could believe in. Jamie Dimon's words today are from the best banking CEO out there . Worth a listen

Cheaper and more productive use of cash for them to use asset swaps . Its cheap for them to track the performance and not actually own the shares and uses less cash too .

Tells me US economy and consumer are doing well and are resilient .

Good for oil consumption to see a good US economy .

Enquest to rise tomorrow ? . Pretty obvious to me that this current level has been a very traded level , should it break up it should move a few pennies up quite fast 16,8 is the 100ma there after its blue sky to 20

Today we kept above the 50ma something that has not happened in ages . Are things about to change ?

So whilst trend is down and has been for ages ( and the I mean 200ma 100ma and possibly include 50ma ) Momentum has picked up from end of June ( stochastic , RSI, MACD , ROC whatever you use as short term MAs ) and we either find resistance tomorrow (look at volume profile) and stay stuck or we finally breakout . First target that 100ma so about 16.88p then 20p . To me that is where it will head with these Brent prices . Caveat is the seasonality for stocks that in summer its usually low volume and 'stay away till September' . Especially UK stocks . If my stats are correct since 2013 July has seen Enquest up 60% of the times.

We will soon have one big issue if production /supply needs to be increased in the US . Oh they do have a 'minor' issue of replenishing the strategic reserve but hey ... everybody has forgotten that.

Oil Futures Market Finally Signals Supply Tightening

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Futures-Market-Finally-Signals-Supply-Tightening.html

Surprised to a certain extent that we couldn't pass the weekly highs of 15,70 ish given where oil is today but then we are just below a lot of overhead resistance and volume profile was perfectly above price . The good news is if we beat the 15.80-16 levels then 18 should prove to be easy to reach short term. Oil is moving up again and GS is back to being very bullish with their oil year targets. Enquest wise 21.5p being a target I'd expect to get taken out once we consolidate in the 18-21.5 area.

We reached all time lows in terms of Enquest divided by a barrel of Brent . To me that is a nonsense given the much improved balance sheet so any positivity here and a bag or 2 is not out of the question. Just a view no advice but looking at the chart and balance sheet that is how I come that conclusion .

For disclosure my last buy stands at 19 and have average in mid 20s

Interesting article today on soaring supertanker rates . Could be the precursor of a nice bull run in oil as demand soars in Asia

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Supertanker-Rates-Soar-As-Middle-East-Oil-Shipments-Jump.html

Such a silly thing still in my opinion .

It won't deter Enquest, Harbour etc from looking abroad. This will do nothing to the UK oil and gas plans and the government's own goals is what we will be paying in the long run as our energy industry looks elsewhere.

"This level is based on 20-year historical averages" This is what they write on the news release . Yet 20 years ago you could buy a lot of everything a lot cheaper. Why didn't they do an average which is inflation adjusted ? Do the unions get offered a 20 years historical average salary for their workers ? NO . Its always going up . Yet somehow those who run an oil company can miraculously strip out inflation and continue paying their staff a 20 year average price too ? DOUBT IT

The only positive I take today is that we have a) a Floor and b) the beginning of the back peddling on this disaster of an idea which was only bought by the public as a populist lie . The government having no spine and no respect for those who elected it caved in when they had such a huge majority in parliament. Shocking

I just hope this is the start of taking those idiotic taxes down . A 20 year average of a commodity is really ridiculous as a metric . Sunak could have asked his hedge fund buddies in Macro to explain this very simple issue

Inflation

Hi Kraken ,

In fairness I think Linda is totally against these idiots of politicians , the interview with the Green party lunatic was quite something to watch , a smart woman with an enormous business background and competences vs a total nobody who has based her career on no skill other than coercing the young and gullible into her commie views , just because they sound all like some Disney cartoon .

The reality is that Linda has skin in the game Caroline Lucas is just a leach like most politicians with no real single day in her life running a big corporation with all its complexities, Lucas manipulates gullible people and spreads a lot of misguided propaganda . It works for a while sadly then it will end . Sadly these actions cause damage as in our energy security and business people will though find solutions as that is what business do or go bust.

Politicians can fail all their decisions yet remain somehow in parliament . They don't really face the consequences and lose their salaries , the minions might but the main MPs are elected in safe seats .

Interactive Brokers has a P/E ratio that is a third of our peers so from that perspective our current price is clearly undervalued

It also has analysts views ( I believe 11 of them ) with a consensus of 4.37 as per the Refinitiv rankings.

To me its clear that the Zama project alone is not even accounted for here as are the recent developments , its huge and can totally help HBR move away from our dodgy and discriminatory tax system .

The UK government and opposition are hell bent on the own goal of no energy security so HBR is right to pursue all the offshore projects it can .

Last I checked there is no pipeline crossing the Atlantic , maybe that was the source of those who were deriding you.

Just a guess :-)

The only way to transport gas is to cool it and that process turns into a liquid , ie LNG , very costly , normal gas goes from source to pipeline with actual taps stopping the flow , some like in Russia can't even be stopped due to winter weather conditions . There is no storage .

Jeffrey1979

Throughout history we have seen governments do what they want for a while , then I can quote revolutions or toppled governments much like anyone here can .

As for the UK , we have 2 realities to contend with , 1) Nature and 2) market forces In my mind with supply constraints and under investments energy prices are depressed . When a pendulum swings too much to one side I always feel it will come back with a bigger force the higher it gets.

Valuation of Enquest is currently worse than when we had 2billion in debt . Crazy times.

The video posted today (link on youtube is very much in line with a lot of what I think too )

Hi Spindok

I hear you . There is a level of hypocrisy and pure fantasy out there that is phenomenal .Forward thinking skills are clearly not in abundance and we see short termism dominate . It won't last I think as its destructive

One thing that I like to chart is Commodity X in sterling , and as we know Brent in GBP has also been tumbling a lot , now we could see dollar weakness and sterling move up , Surely an EPL should not be based on a simplistic criteria as we have seen . No model was created but just a simple tax it all .

A price inflation and currency adjusted with several price levels would have been the smarter thing to do if at all . A moving average adjusted for inflation and currency over laid by a simple say volatility band , so when price goes 2 sigma you could argue its above a normal threshold and taxes come in , Otherwise intellectually the government is just thieving and is clearly run by morons.

Taxation was already higher than other firms. Unfairly , whereas now its just gross misconduct by the government not just towards the firms involved but the public as the tax benefits are misleading both in terms of benefits as in the money it will raise vs value destruction and loss of energy security . Surprised there isn't a big fight here , even legal battles . Shell and BP could easily attack yet their North Sea operations are a fraction of their worldwide ones. So the UK only or mostly firms have a much reduced firepower .

If I had time I'd do a full exposure of this ridiculous lie and incompetence ( the lie being the money it will raise and the usual comparisons used of global revenues not UK ones ) The incompetence is using the Exceptional term to justify a tax on a commodity that of exceptional only had March 2022 !

It makes my bloody boil to be honest people elect ignorant and mostly populist candidates who sort of reflect the idiots in the streets .

Sorry rant over

Am not calm or happy at all.

The only happy way to see it is that the balance sheet is at its best in years and both carbon storage and offshore eg Malaysia operations getting bigger will be the way forward for Enquest. Our owner has a large share holding here . He above any of us stands to gain or lose the most unlike in many other listed firms so will do his best to make this play work

Taken from another poster "heialex1" on adv fn

"I find it’s remarkable that the market cap is where it was when oil as at 50 and there was almost 2 Bn worth of debt…. Will this ever re rate"

That is what we are seeing today . the best balance sheet in years and much higher average for oil in years and a market cap that is on par with the worst . Baffling .

Those wanting in even lower calling for lower too . Sometimes a good sign , but negative spin is always the biggest forse on BBs . Rampers have ramped stocks on bbs for years to no avail . Rightly or wrongly , yet one or two posters negativity is enough to see shareholders run lol . I need to exploit this trick too .

Enquest oil giant defined by Labour MPs lol ! Like these people are in a cult of delusion of some sort and a FTSE350 firm is now an oil giant.

Enquest to fund all the NHS will be the next lie they put out , but nowadays everyone will believe that too. Seems to be straight out of the book of that party that kicked off world war 2 . Keep repeating a lie ... in this case keeping repeating it and make even bigger ! This the 2.0 version

So the issue is serious . Is this mental disease spread through tap water ? Are they affecting so many minds in schools and uni's ? what is going on ? All the North Sea firms cannot sort out the UK spending issues. Yet somehow Starmer was saying that taxing the "oil giants" will keep council tax down . I mean they may as well say we'll add a free holiday to Bora Bora , a case of champagne and designer flip flops ! I bet many would vote them just for that.

I read that too and found it so funny as the EPL is a massive contradiction , starving UK independents of capital to re-invest and to forward the agenda . Double own goal as always when politicians use the tax card.

Taxation is for the incompetents who can't find a proper solution and opt for the lazy solution

I agree with you Sekorde,

This extreme negativity is misuided ! We have always had bond obligations and Enquest has been front running the payments nearly always . Not sure what the issue is here . over all debt is what you want to look at and that is coming down Look at our bond price Steadily up , no signs of all the negativity one can read here

Brent is also up 1.5% given our beta we should be up over 3% !What a scandal bb retail can be or opportunity

As Enquest has arguably reached a point where every negativity has been priced in , I see a stab at 18plus soon and the ability to move further up there after.

I liked the update today

- Debt : Its misleading to think debt didn't go down when in reality funds were used to lower other liabilities .

- Malaysia , whilst not the major operation of our business its good to have diversification away from the UK which is arguably increasing and improving smoothly

- UK operations should also see new wells come online in July

- Carbon capture , similar to Malaysia it won't be the biggest earner for now but its a beginning that could lead to great things / Exempt EPL revenues much like Malaysia ops

- Oil hedges again show that Enquest can operate at lower prices

- OPEC : wouldn't discount the chances of further production cuts , careful if short oil here . A bounce above $79/$80 and Enquest 18plus is a good possibility

- Divis weren't mentioned unless I missed it but am sure we are going there as they have already alluded to it. End of 2023 announcement on a good year .

In summary I can't be unhappy with a smooth operational update ,its what I like in a business . Last round of broker updates was all at a premium of where we are today and today's update is probably tracking the progress they had forecasted .

As always markets will be the final judge of it all.