Member Info for onedaysoonish

I agree your sentiment on the results. I'd seen the updates and the half year numbers and was hoping for 2023 results without another dose of disappointment. I thought the financial management might improve when Wood stepped down but, yet again, Tullow turned a decent top line and solid gross profit into a big fat loss without the reduction in debt I was looking for. Ok, the 23 oil prices fell short of 22 but that didn't happen over night. Kenya..... will it ever happen? I hope so but it's taking forever. I bought here on the basis of the recovery plan but I got it wrong. Come on Rahul, get a grip and do something for the shareholders not the short brigade.

Long, long time since I've posted here so nice to see some familiar posters. Based on the lack of news it looks like I've been busier than CASP of late. I still have a small holding here but I bought those in the 3's so sitting in the red atm. Let's hope the weather brings some activity and some long overdue news. Like everyone here I'm fingers crossed for the CE charter as selling the oil at local prices is never going to make us rich and the divi's only exist in memory. That said i'm still cynical on the CE so let's hope it's not another fail. Come on CASP, it would be great to see a sustainable increase in output and some of the drilling activity turn into increased oil sales in 24. I'm planning to sell at 5p, but then again......................

Good luck all.

Fingers crossed for 802. I've been through enough deep well disappointment here to get excited but it's trans-formative if it does come good. I've lost count of the times we have been promised 5K BOPD by the end of the year! No news is seldom good news here so I'm hoping that a positive deep well RNS is finally round the corner. The boat and divi confirmation was good news so a little surprised the SP hasn't reacted a little better? I've not been following things here as closely as I did but I assume we are still selling to local dealers? My last buy was based on hoping KEBCO would get us back to being able to sell at international prices but that punt has still got a pipe stuck in it!

In answer to you question about depth I don't know. They have failed miserably to get oil to flow from those depths in the past so perhaps they are happy to bank some shallower oil rather than block yet another deep well? I'd take 800-1000 BOPD in the hand over 4K BOPD in the bush based on previous experience. There has always been fantastic potential here but it's never really looked like being fully realised until recently. If 1% of the optimism around this stock had come good over the last 10 years had come good we would be well north of £1 by now. Lets hope its finally going to happen.

GLA AIMHO of course.

Long time since I've posted here (busy at work) but things are definitely looking better. I never been a fan of the boat but the charter is good news at long last and makes the chances of sustaining the divi that much better. I bought back into this at 3.5p..... on the way down. Really happy with the way things have gone even after sitting on a thumping loss for a few months.

Reads to me like they are on track? More focus on the debt which, given the collapse of the merger deal, seems to make sense. From memory we are around 6 months away from the next step change in hedging and with an increased FCF target and more new wells to be drilled I'm going to sit tight. This aint no roller coaster ride anymore which is just fine with me. Be nice to see some positive SP action but guess I'll have to wait.

GLA

Well, its been a while since I've looked in here. Work does tend to get in the way these days but not getting rich with CASP so hey ho. So what's been happening? Well I'm pleased to see the divi is now happening. Promising us a divi and then going quiet didn't help confidence, nor did yet more pipes stuck in holes and of course KEBCO failed to deliver us from 'Russian oil' contagion.

he better news is the SP. Not great but a lot better than life in the 2's. The boat is still a big, floating white elephant IMO. Supply = 1 Vs Demand = 0.1.

Putin's war drags on and looks set to continue to do so for a long time yet...... unless Mr P falls out of a hospital window of course? It looks like the yanks have spelled out to Russia that nuclear escalation will result in there being no Russia. A terrorist superpower that are becoming too dangerous to exist? Perhaps the good people of Russia will eventually get fed up with being thrown under the bus to keep Putin's war alive that there will have to be change? Whatever, it still looks like a long haul.

I would love to be a fly on the wall at some of the war modelling scenario's the Americans will already have run through. Perhaps the outcome of this war is starting to look more like the end of Russia than the end of Ukraine?

Who knows what the next few months will bring but good luck CASP'ers. I still hold here so the divi will pay for a party or two.

All IMHO GLA

Mr C, great post and spot on IMO. This strategy of authoritarian regimes doing what ever they want and threatening nuclear war on anyone who thinks differently is dangerous and can't be allowed to win out. And yes, anything that required significant lumps of cash spending on it in Russia has probably been neglected by people lining their own pockets. How much of the Russian nuclear arsenal is serviceable and how many viable delivery systems are ready to go is debatable.

Six months ago NATO was unprepared for what was about to happen. You can bet that situation has very much changed since Feb 24. If Putin launches a strategic nuke now the response is likely to wipe Russia off the map regardless of any damage Putin might achieve with what ever he has that actually works. Of course he could still use tactical nukes in Ukraine but that might be another can of worms for Russia...... As if there aren't enough. The nuclear threat has not gone away but the timing gets worse for Russia as the days tick by.

You are right. By hook or crook he still has massive support amongst the Russian people. Odd as he is more likely to wipe them all out than any Russian president since Stalin.

Come on Clive, 141? Please define immanent for me!

All IMHO

Thanks Adie, I'd not had the chance to look at that before today but it was well worth the time. Great post.

Think I'm in the middle ground here. POO has had a rough few weeks with Brent just under $100 this morning so it's not surprising we have seen the SP discounting this. Another factor has been the potential merger. I thought this was a largely positive move but the market seems to disagree. Maybe if it's completed..... ?? I also think Kenya was part priced in but the expectation is slipping along with the time line. This weeks RNS update was worth a read but calling it news was a stretch.

On the positive side I think the pre-emption was a solid investment and there were no nasty surprises in the update. Tullow are coming back from the dead IMO. This is still a recovery play and that recovery appears to be on track. The half year report in September should give us a clearer picture on finances and the merged company - if it happens - should be well placed to move beyond being a vehicle for paying down debt.

Lot's of opportunities here and a few bear traps still to negotiate. If you do the math then we have a very decent punt here but it's not going to happen next week or next month. I think there was a post here a while ago about patience and it still holds true.

All IMHO GLA

There was something in the update about this with possible results expected later this year rather than a mention of any recent success.

Brent just under $100 this morning but the Urals discount is, presumably, taking our international selling price down to $65-$70. This of course assumes KK's point about KEBCO not having much influence at this stage? We are also selling around 40% of our output at local levels so we should be achieving an average around $50/bl at the moment? Getting us to 5KBOPD then would be a gross revenue of $250k/day or $90m/yr. All very approximate but if we top out at that then we can forget multi-bagging here even if there is a buy-out?

My other oiler completed a pre-emption earlier this year for an additional 4KBOPD and it cost them $118m . This generates a gross revenue of around $400K per day.

I didn't get to the AGM but if they are suggesting 5-6KBOPD is the end game here then that's something I've not been aware of before now? The potential capacity in the fields is massive so are we taking about needing our own connecting pipeline before we can develop much further? This has been talked about before but I was thinking this was an efficiency gain once we got up well into double figures rather than a constraint at 5K?

Please tell me I've got this completely wrong?

GLA

A statistical reminder of a board that doesn't care!

Let's hope they diversify into wind. We could have months of fun with that! Come on Clive, where's the 141 news. Struggling to hold my breath much longer. Being 1 of the 421 makes me feel better...... I must be losing it again!

GLA

SLBH lol. It was just about what i expected. A bit disappointing that the production was at the lower end of the range but still on track. The RNS was largely recycled news but at least no nasty surprises aside from the lack of clarity about how they report debt? I love the car analogy by the way.

GLA

Sounds like Kenya still has a way to run. It was all sounded a bit cryptic but reasonably positive? H2? Maybe but it's not a given.

GLA

RI/SC, yep I agree. In the RNS they refer to the $2.5bn as total debt while the $2.1bn YE number was net debt. Confusing for anyone looking at comparisons! They had $0.9bn of un-borrowed headroom at year end and they may have used some of that to exercise the exemption or other 22 capex? They could do with being clearer about the net debt position but I suspect we will have to wait till the half year results in September to see that?

First real update since Les Wood stepped down so it will be interesting to see if the tone changes? I agree that whatever we get will be balanced and may well be judged on what isn't said? Rahul has stayed away from Ra Ra updates and I don't see that changing but would be happy to be proven wrong.

GLA

I think if you want to guess at what Putin will do next you need to be a student of history and look back to what Hitler was doing in the 1930's? The parallels are alarming. Of course NATO was set up to to try and avoid a repeat of that scenario and the world now has nuclear weapons which changes the dynamic but a similar picture is still emerging. For the moment Putin is hell bent on taking Ukraine. Whatever it takes in time and resources! Many suspect he has designs beyond that but they will have to stay on the back burner for the moment.

I don't think he's been sandbagging militarily. He's presided over a corrupt kleptocracy were investment in his military has been siphoned off and what he thought was a powerful military machine has under performed. Of course he has the option to fully mobilise. Something he's been flagging he might do if he can invent the justification?

I think the west are prepared to see this conflict roll on. Drain Russia's finances and the patients of its people. France and Germany look to favour appeasement but that's a potentially dangerous tactic as Russia + Ukraine = Military and economic superpower on NATO's doorstep and the US, at least, can see this. NATO are very unlikely to enter the fight in Ukraine but Putin might just force their hand somewhere else?

As for Putin's threats to use strategic nukes if he's interfered with? He needs to be very careful that somebody doesn't start to believe him!

All IMHO GLA

Don't sit on the fence Wannabe!! LOL

He's hoping!